January 2014 in the PNW

[Phil]

One error the CFS seems to be making is making the south central US way too cold. The ECMWF models say that is totally bogus. If it's wrong about that I would expect the cold penetration in the West to be greater.

Actually, thus far it's been the other way around. The ECMWF has been trying to pop a SE ridge since early January, which has failed to verify.

 

The Pacific block is a near certainty. The SE-ridge would be a downstream response and it's existence will depend on a number of factors that are difficult to determine right now.

[weather girl]

Welcome back!

 

Thanks, Jim. :-)

[BLI snowman]

The control model for the ECMWF ensemble shows a PV eventually moving over WA.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012512/noram/eps_z500a_c_noram_53.png

 

Yeah, that's essentially what the 06z showed on that day. 1933 repeat?

[Jesse]

Yeah, that's essentially what the 06z showed on that day. 1933 repeat?

That was the cold wave when Seneca fell to -54f for an Oregon record, right?

 

Btw could you link me to that site that has top ten warmest and coldest months for PDX? I recently got a new laptop and lost the old link.

[snow_wizard]

The CFS has been consistently showing a cold wave in early Feb and one in late Feb the last several runs. Hopefully we can just bridge the gap and have it cold all month.

[westiztehbest]

Pretty cold.

 

[Skagit Weather]

What an amazing couple of model runs! It is hard not to get excited reading the last few pages especially if the trend continues tonight.

[50shadesofvan]

Hi all. Here's a probability of exceedence map for NAEFS. This one is for a surface temps of less than -5C (or 23F) Sorry, but I'm an avid NAEFS lover. No shame. I find their skill to be much improved than just GFS/CMC ensemble forecast systems alone. 

 

I.e.: Essentially all of Canada and most of CONUS 

[bainbridgekid]

18z is beautiful starting at day 9 through the end of the run.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140125/18/gfs_namer_276_500_vort_ht_s.gif

[Skagit Weather]

18z is beautiful starting at day 9 through the end of the run.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140125/18/gfs_namer_276_500_vort_ht_s.gif

As cold if not colder than the 12z and 06z, but still no moisture up here. Hopefully the timing continues to move up.

[Guest Winterdog]

18z is beautiful starting at day 9 through the end of the run.

Looks like snow possible in northern sound lowlands as early as late Thursday.

[50shadesofvan]

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

 

[Deweydog]

Early/mid February.  

[BLI snowman]

That was the cold wave when Seneca fell to -54f for an Oregon record, right?

 

Btw could you link me to that site that has top ten warmest and coldest months for PDX? I recently got a new laptop and lost the old link.

 

Yep, Portland had a high of 23 and a low of 12 on 2/9/1933.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/index.php

[BLI snowman]

Looks like snow possible in northern sound lowlands as early as late Thursday.

 

Yeah, the Friday storm is increasingly looking like a potential snowmaker up this way.

[Phil]

That ridge over AK is pure insanity on the 18z GFS.

[Jesse]

Yeah, the Friday storm is increasingly looking like a potential snowmaker up this way.

I'm liking my chances in the Gorge as well.

[Deweydog]

The control model for the ECMWF ensemble shows a PV eventually moving over WA.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012512/noram/eps_z500a_c_noram_53.png

 

Looks like a spitting image of 2-2-89.  Just a little late to the party.  

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0202.php

[westiztehbest]

That ridge over AK is pure insanity on the 18z GFS.

Monster ridge from hell.

 

[Deweydog]

36/32 out here today with raging winds. This has been hands down the windiest two day stretch since I moved out here.

 

Crazy that it was 70 in Medford today. Is that a new January record for them?

 

73 in North Bend is also pretty wild.

 

Hopefully the "extremes beget extremes" theory pays off next month.

 

No.  71 on the 20th and 21st in 1961, 1981 respectively.  

[Jesse]

Looks like a spitting image of 2-2-89. Just a little late to the party.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0202.php

Are you feeling this one?

[Guest Winterdog]

Monster ridge from hell.

That baby isn't from hell in my book, quite heavenly actually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z operational is insane. The 18z ensembles aren't quite as good as the 12z ones.

[Skagit Weather]

The 18z operational is insane. The 18z ensembles aren't quite as good as the 12z ones.

Just what I was typing. 18Z GFS ensemble mean is warmer than the 12z, drops to about -8C in Seattle compared to -11C earlier. Not as many drop below -15C as earlier either, but still looks pretty good.

[whitechristmas]

That baby isn't from hell in my book, quite heavenly actually.

 

Now I'm confused! Do we want this ridge (FOR COLD AND SNOW!) or don't we??

[brody]

Now I'm confused! Do we want this ridge (FOR COLD AND SNOW!) or don't we??

Yes 

[Deweydog]

Are you feeling this one?

 

I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say that will happen, but I like evolution and how we've seemed to put ourselves in an other shoe dropping kind of position.  My only word of warning at this point is the fact this pattern seems to kinda want to piece meal its way together.  There is no one pattern crasher, just quite a few smaller scale events eventually melding into something significant.  Typically the long range stuff is slightly more reliable (relatively speaking) when we have a better catalyst.  

[whitechristmas]

Yes 

 

Great, thanks! Do the models look to be supporting a trend for this ridge placement?

[Guest Winterdog]

Great, thanks! Do the models look to be supporting a trend for this ridge placement?

They are mostly all in support of a trend for the ridge to retrograde westward and amplify. Ridges that are from hell are blocking high pressure systems just to our west, sitting on top of us or just to our east. If they form around the Aleutians like the one shown, they are likely to pull colder air down from the north over the area.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z - The operational gets a hold of some crack(or maybe Meth?) beyond day 10 delivering an ultra mega-blast to the Pacific Northwest. Don't do drugs, kids! 18z never learned that.

 

18z GFS Ensembles
Yeah, more crack smoking. Portland - Not as cold as 6z/12z with the mean temp running around -5c. Still plenty of cold members however. Would have liked to seen the cold momentum continue. Onto 00z!

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Basically I am taking 18z with a grain of pepper and rely more heavily on 00z GFS/EURO(and GEM Ensembles) especially when 7 days out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Now I'm confused! Do we want this ridge (FOR COLD AND SNOW!) or don't we??

Most definitely yes. We want it offshore near 150 W and amplifying well north up through Alaska and over the poles if at all possible.

[whitechristmas]

They are mostly all in support of a trend for the ridge to retrograde westward and amplify. Ridges that are from hell are blocking high pressure systems just to our west, sitting on top of us or just to our east. If they form around the Aleutians like the one shown, they are likely to pull colder air down from the north over the area.

 

Thanks for the info! Sure would love to see this pattern evolve into a great snowy event for us all! 

[brody]

Enumclaw hit 60F today

 

??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Enumclaw hit 60F today

 

??

 

63 on the Central Coast at Newport. Very springlike.

[TT-SEA]

Enumclaw hit 60F today

 

??

 

 

62 here. 

 

Screw spring... felt like early summer eating lunch on deck this afternoon.  

[luminen]

62 here. 

 

Screw spring... felt like early summer eating lunch on deck this afternoon.  

 

I'm so ready for summer too. 50/26 for EUG today. Not bad...

[Utrex]

What if the ridge moves all the way off to NW Pacific and the PV moves in to the GoA? Pineapple Express?

[TT-SEA]

What if the ridge moves all the way off to NW Pacific and the PV moves in to the GoA? Pineapple Express?

 

 

Bring it on... in addition to cold and snow I am really hoping for a ton of rain in February.   

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours until 00z GFS

2 1/2 hours until 00z GEM

4 hours 18 minutes until 00z EURO