Jesse Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Nope, but the longer term decline into the next glacial should initiate sometime around 2017 (+/- 1yr), with a significant temperature drop occurring during the 2020s. We finished up our warming in 2012.A lot of people are predicting the exact opposite. Lots of calls for record or near-record global warmth in 2014, with an El Niño developing. That's all they're talking about in the climate change sub-forum on AmericanWx right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 At least the ensembles are slowing improving. Hopefully back to normal or cooler by the end of month. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Not bad. Even a "normal" Feb would be nice at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Lots of improvement on the 12z ensembles. Not bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 12Z ECMWF is not pretty... even at 240 hours: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011712!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 A lot of people are predicting the exact opposite. Lots of calls for record or near-record global warmth in 2014, with an El Niño developing. That's all they're talking about in the climate change sub-forum on AmericanWx right now.Trust me, please. We'll see who has it right..my reasoning is derived solely from a physical perspective..I've created my own model of the dynamics in/of the planetary energy budget, eliminating all the hypothetical feedbacks assumed in the common GCM. I expect 2014 to continue the flattening trend that began in 2001. Much like the 2002-03 El Niño, which did not spike temps significantly relative to the neutral 2001-02 ENSO. The reasoning for this prediction is too much for me to go into right now, but believe me, I've been careful and thorough..in fact I've devoted probably over 100hrs this winter to improving my model. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 This month is definitely a high level stinker. No snow whatsoever below 2000 feet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Trust me, please. We'll see who has it right.. Nope, but the longer term decline into the next glacial should initiate sometime around 2017 (+/- 1yr), with a significant temperature drop occurring during the 2020s. We finished up our warming in 2012.Much smarter. You get burned when you make those 1 to 2 year predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 I've been impressed with the inversion over PDX for this ridgy period so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Much smarter. You get burned when you make those 1 to 2 year predictions. Yeah I've never made a prediction like that. Only that 2012 marked the relative peak in temperatures. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yeah I've never made a prediction like that. Only that 2012 marked the relative peak in temperatures. 2012 was awful. I can't believe how warm it was when I think about it. I remember 3 days in a row during mid-Morch it being 75F outside with not a single leaf on a tree, and the average temperature for that week was typically 45F. This was following a record-warm winter (about 15% of the usual snowfall) followed by a scorching summer. 2012 was purely awful across the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WAZ039&warncounty=WAC011&firewxzone=WAZ604&local_place1=&product1=Air+Stagnation+Advisory#.Utmv4dLTlAs Seven days. Sexy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 The sun is actually out here in eugene. I can see blue sky. Finally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WAZ039&warncounty=WAC011&firewxzone=WAZ604&local_place1=&product1=Air+Stagnation+Advisory#.Utmv4dLTlAs Seven days. Sexy. Maybe we can get a big screen with snow on it as well. http://earthfirstjournal.org/newswire/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2014/01/beijingsunset1.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 66 at Tillamook today. Impressive. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Maybe we can get a big screen with snow on it as well. http://earthfirstjournal.org/newswire/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2014/01/beijingsunset1.jpg If that is in China as it appears to be according to the caption, I wonder how much of that obscured visibility in the background is smog as opposed to fog or low clouds. I can't tell if it was snowing at the time or not, even though there is either snow or ice covering the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 http://i44.tinypic.com/t4wwth.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 http://i44.tinypic.com/t4wwth.pngThe fisherman is going to open the door to greatness for us... He is our good luck charm... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 The fisherman is going to open the door to greatness for us... He is our good luck charm... You never know. I mean stranger things have happened, right? .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 18z GFS Ensembles have improved a bit. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitechristmas Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 18z GFS Ensembles have improved a bit. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png That's "cool". Think there's any kind of a trend appearing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 That's "cool". Think there's any kind of a trend appearing?Hard to say. It's just the 18z.... Be nice to see 00z follow suit if not be a little colder. A pattern change to cooler and wetter would be most beneficial to Oregon/Washington right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Made it to close to 70 degrees today Paradise on Mt. Rainier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 A lot of people are predicting the exact opposite. Lots of calls for record or near-record global warmth in 2014, with an El Niño developing. That's all they're talking about in the climate change sub-forum on AmericanWx right now. Geos would it have those.as he agrees with the idea of the cooling trends.as Geos would tell you I'm sure as well Americanwx tends to be pro agw geos is one of the few that post there that isn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Made it close to 70 degrees today at Paradise on Mt. Rainier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Made it close to 70 degrees today at Paradise on Mt. Rainier That is ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Made it close to 70 degrees today at Paradise on Mt. RainierI have to admit, I am not sure if I should be amazed or depressed by that... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Made it close to 70 degrees today at Paradise on Mt. RainierThat's pretty hard to believe. What were the official numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 42/32 out here today. East wind has been pretty strong since late morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Sun broke out here in the mid afternoon time frame today, I raced out and washed the cars and cleaned up from last weekends windstorm, back to the fog now! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 That's pretty hard to believe. What were the official numbers? 69 degrees at Paradise Ranger Station. It was 43 degrees today at Camp Muir at 10,000 feet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 East wind kicked in... 56 degrees at my house and 31 at the bottom of the hill just 3 miles away. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 00z is not bad in long range. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 00z is not bad in long range. No it certainly is not. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Euro reshuffles the deck. Deck reshuffling!!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 00z GFS Ensembles Portland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png 00z EURO full runhttp://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.htmlGOOD RIDDANCE western ridge!http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Holy s***, I'm ADVANCED! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Holy s***, I'm ADVANCED!Weren't you always?.... 2 more posts and I too reach that lofty criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Weren't you always?.... 2 more posts and I too reach that lofty criteria. To think, just three days ago I was a newbie. My self-confidence is through the roof! This beats any of the natural male enhancement products on the market, hands down. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'm still a newbie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 The inversion doesn't seem as strong up here as down south which is nice. It is always nice to have relatively good air quality up here while the central and south sound are marinating in a nice soupy layer. Hopefully the hints in the models actually evolve into a pattern where we can get some more interesting weather, whether that be mountain snow or the always coveted lowland snow.High of 45F after a low of 36F today. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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