A bit of a personal post on my end. This was a few years in the making but had to postponed several times due to the passing of my mom during Covid and obviously the continuation of Covid until we are safe to travel. And also why I made this trip back to the home country for the first time in 20 years.
This was taken at Central Highlands of Vietnam in Da Lat early morning. The fog and mists was just like home.
With the MJO transiting the W-Hem (and a *very* modest niño-lean still remaining in the system state), I’m optimistic we could pull off a couple weeks of western ridge/eastern trough (+TNH and/or +PNA) centered in the middle of the month. Though previous attempts at this have always wound up being cut short in some way or another, so my expectations are low.
Still, it’s the same reason I was optimistic about a cooler/wetter pattern a few weeks ago, which did come to fruition. The intraseasonal (MJO/CCKW) component of tropical forcing is operating cleanly and dominant over the (now collapsing) background state. I don’t think there will be any niño elements remaining during the next MJO transit in June, though.
Impressive to see it maintained so well on the EPS weeklies over a month out, regardless.
We had a nice little thunderstorm last night too. Nothing violent but some decent lightning strikes and cracking thunder. Not nearly enough rain, though.
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