Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Kayla said: The Jim curse lives on! That "trough" doesn't bring any appreciable change in the weather even out here now. Hope to gawd Jim changes his mind about moving to Maine. Otherwise it’ll probably never snow here again. 3 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Reminds me of January and February. Nonexistent jet and rainless runs forever. Hasn’t the PNW midwinter problem been not enough blocking/too much jet? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 On 8/26/2022 at 9:49 PM, Frontal Snowsquall said: Taking out that year leaves us this. I also feel strongly about the January 1957 analog. Adding that gives us this. I think January will give us the best chance to score this winter. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we'll have the coldest and snowiest regional January in decades. 16 hours ago, Doiinko said: And PDX dropped to 3 degrees afterwards! What analogs are you looking at? I know analogs aren't perfect they're still fun to look at. I requoted my post from back in late August. I'll have to check and see if the analogs still remain relevant though. But they were showing good blocking up in Alaska for Dec/Jan and the latest EURO seasonals are showing that too. Also have to add in 1942 now as Jim mentioned. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Hasn’t the PNW midwinter problem been not enough blocking/too much jet? Sitting under a massive ridge for weeks on end isn't exactly optimal either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, Phil said: 12z GFS precip, out to 10/22. Wild. This is just absolutely absurd for the PNW and the mountain west states. Unreal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 19 minutes ago, Phil said: 12z GFS precip, out to 10/22. Wild. Nothing within 500 miles of me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 SEA NWS drawing similarities October 1987. Niño winter, but interesting nonetheless. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Arctic front heading for Kayla and Hawkstwelve on the 12z Euro. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Arctic front heading for Kayla and Hawkstwelve on the 12z Euro. Nah, it's going east. The RRR is like a forcefield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Nah, it's going east. The RRR is like a forcefield. Fwiw, it appears to be on life support by day 10 of the euro. Westerlies could be close to breaking through. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 I actually still believe the ridge will break down for the last 1/3 of October. I’m probably a dreamer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 44 minutes ago, Kayla said: The Jim curse lives on! That "trough" doesn't bring any appreciable change in the weather even out here now. Yup. Was hoping for a little snow but that seems unlikely now. Going to be staying 3 nights in west Yellowstone and 2 nights in whitefish near kalispell. Definitely going to Yellowstone and grand teton…might even hit glacier on my way back north. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Fwiw, it appears to be on life support by day 10 of the euro. Westerlies could be close to breaking through. Yeah... the ECMWF has had issues in the 7-10 day range with assuming the ridge will break down but none its solutions have worked out. The EPS has been pretty rock solid though. I will believe when I see it happening on the EPS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 For reference... here is day 15 on the 00Z EPS. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Jan 1957 huh? looking good Climatological Data for Spokane Area, WA (ThreadEx) - January 1957 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Temperature HDD CDD Precipitation New Snow Snow Depth Maximum Minimum Average Departure Sum 663 267 - - 1544 0 1.34 20.8 - Average 21.4 8.6 15.0 -14.6 - - - - 4.6 Normal 34.5 24.7 29.6 - 1097 0 1.97 12.3 1957-01-01 31 26 28.5 0.3 36 0 0.02 0.4 0 1957-01-02 32 26 29.0 0.8 36 0 0.02 0.5 T 1957-01-03 32 27 29.5 1.2 35 0 0.01 0.1 1 1957-01-04 29 25 27.0 -1.4 38 0 T T T 1957-01-05 28 23 25.5 -3.0 39 0 T T T 1957-01-06 31 20 25.5 -3.1 39 0 T T T 1957-01-07 35 29 32.0 3.3 33 0 T 0.1 T 1957-01-08 31 23 27.0 -1.8 38 0 0.07 1.2 T 1957-01-09 32 22 27.0 -1.9 38 0 T T 1 1957-01-10 31 26 28.5 -0.5 36 0 0.28 2.8 1 1957-01-11 36 30 33.0 3.9 32 0 0.25 2.6 4 1957-01-12 36 22 29.0 -0.2 36 0 T 0.0 5 1957-01-13 27 9 18.0 -11.3 47 0 0.00 0.0 4 1957-01-14 20 10 15.0 -14.4 50 0 0.01 0.1 4 1957-01-15 20 2 11.0 -18.5 54 0 0.02 0.6 4 1957-01-16 14 -3 5.5 -24.1 59 0 0.00 0.0 4 1957-01-17 16 -2 7.0 -22.7 58 0 0.00 0.0 4 1957-01-18 16 -2 7.0 -22.8 58 0 T T 4 1957-01-19 17 -1 8.0 -21.9 57 0 0.25 4.0 4 1957-01-20 18 7 12.5 -17.5 52 0 0.07 0.9 7 1957-01-21 16 0 8.0 -22.1 57 0 0.01 0.1 8 1957-01-22 14 6 10.0 -20.2 55 0 0.09 3.1 8 1957-01-23 14 -1 6.5 -23.8 58 0 0.01 0.4 11 1957-01-24 10 -11 -0.5 -30.9 65 0 0.00 0.0 9 1957-01-25 9 -12 -1.5 -32.0 66 0 0.00 0.0 9 1957-01-26 4 -16 -6.0 -36.6 71 0 0.00 0.0 8 1957-01-27 0 -18 -9.0 -39.7 74 0 0.02 0.4 8 1957-01-28 13 -10 1.5 -29.2 63 0 0.00 0.0 8 1957-01-29 9 -12 -1.5 -32.3 66 0 0.03 0.5 8 1957-01-30 19 7 13.0 -17.9 52 0 0.18 2.9 8 1957-01-31 23 15 19.0 -12.0 46 0 T 0.1 11 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... the ECMWF has had issues in the 7-10 day range with assuming the ridge will break down but none its solutions have worked out. The EPS has been pretty rock solid though. I will believe when I see it happening on the EPS. 12z Euro wouldn’t break down the ridge, it’s actually about to reform in the GOA. But there are indications it will become flatter or less amplified later this month. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 It would sure be nice to have such stagnant/stable pattern when it comes to arctic cold/snow. 6 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: It would sure be nice to have such stagnant/stable pattern when it comes to arctic cold/snow. I think 1948-1949 fits that criteria. 90 straight days of cold in the Sierra. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Only 57 at Corvallis. Could be headed for a pretty major underperformance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Jan 1957 huh? looking good Climatological Data for Spokane Area, WA (ThreadEx) - January 1957 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Temperature HDD CDD Precipitation New Snow Snow Depth Maximum Minimum Average Departure Sum 663 267 - - 1544 0 1.34 20.8 - Average 21.4 8.6 15.0 -14.6 - - - - 4.6 Normal 34.5 24.7 29.6 - 1097 0 1.97 12.3 1957-01-01 31 26 28.5 0.3 36 0 0.02 0.4 0 1957-01-02 32 26 29.0 0.8 36 0 0.02 0.5 T 1957-01-03 32 27 29.5 1.2 35 0 0.01 0.1 1 1957-01-04 29 25 27.0 -1.4 38 0 T T T 1957-01-05 28 23 25.5 -3.0 39 0 T T T 1957-01-06 31 20 25.5 -3.1 39 0 T T T 1957-01-07 35 29 32.0 3.3 33 0 T 0.1 T 1957-01-08 31 23 27.0 -1.8 38 0 0.07 1.2 T 1957-01-09 32 22 27.0 -1.9 38 0 T T 1 1957-01-10 31 26 28.5 -0.5 36 0 0.28 2.8 1 1957-01-11 36 30 33.0 3.9 32 0 0.25 2.6 4 1957-01-12 36 22 29.0 -0.2 36 0 T 0.0 5 1957-01-13 27 9 18.0 -11.3 47 0 0.00 0.0 4 1957-01-14 20 10 15.0 -14.4 50 0 0.01 0.1 4 1957-01-15 20 2 11.0 -18.5 54 0 0.02 0.6 4 1957-01-16 14 -3 5.5 -24.1 59 0 0.00 0.0 4 1957-01-17 16 -2 7.0 -22.7 58 0 0.00 0.0 4 1957-01-18 16 -2 7.0 -22.8 58 0 T T 4 1957-01-19 17 -1 8.0 -21.9 57 0 0.25 4.0 4 1957-01-20 18 7 12.5 -17.5 52 0 0.07 0.9 7 1957-01-21 16 0 8.0 -22.1 57 0 0.01 0.1 8 1957-01-22 14 6 10.0 -20.2 55 0 0.09 3.1 8 1957-01-23 14 -1 6.5 -23.8 58 0 0.01 0.4 11 1957-01-24 10 -11 -0.5 -30.9 65 0 0.00 0.0 9 1957-01-25 9 -12 -1.5 -32.0 66 0 0.00 0.0 9 1957-01-26 4 -16 -6.0 -36.6 71 0 0.00 0.0 8 1957-01-27 0 -18 -9.0 -39.7 74 0 0.02 0.4 8 1957-01-28 13 -10 1.5 -29.2 63 0 0.00 0.0 8 1957-01-29 9 -12 -1.5 -32.3 66 0 0.03 0.5 8 1957-01-30 19 7 13.0 -17.9 52 0 0.18 2.9 8 1957-01-31 23 15 19.0 -12.0 46 0 T 0.1 11 Though Sep/Oct 1956 were basically the opposite pattern to this year. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 FWIW... the 12Z GEFS actually does show a ridge breakdown at the end of run. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: Hasn’t the PNW midwinter problem been not enough blocking/too much jet? Not enough cowbell. Gotta have more cowbell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 31 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Yup. Was hoping for a little snow but that seems unlikely now. Going to be staying 3 nights in west Yellowstone and 2 nights in whitefish near kalispell. Definitely going to Yellowstone and grand teton…might even hit glacier on my way back north. Sounds like an awesome road trip. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, T-Town said: Not enough cowbell. Gotta have more cowbell. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 12Z EPS leaning towards a flatter pattern as well at the end of the run. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: FWIW... the 12Z GEFS actually does show a ridge breakdown at the end of run. Not the first time it’s showed that, though. Still think this pattern is more likely to end with a discontinuous retrogression or poleward migration of -NPO field than a jet extension. But if that fails then the intraseasonal/CCKW component that reaches the WHEM late Oct/early Nov would indeed hint at a jet extension. But that would take longer. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 That said, the signal for troughing in the NW-Pacific has increased on the 12z EPS. That tends to amplify surf and bring cold air into the west-central US. It’s 300hrs out, however that is definitely something to watch as a potential conduit to a pattern change. 6 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Phil said: That said, the signal for troughing in the NW-Pacific has increased on the 12z EPS. That tends to amplify surf and bring cold air into the west-central US. It’s 300hrs out, however that is definitely something to watch as a potential conduit to a pattern change. Do you think we could see some cold/snow in mid-November? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: What's the deal there? Low of 48 last night. Seems like radiational cooling has gone the way of the Dodo. Takes something like late February to bring us any kind of continental airmass. Warmer latent boundary layer conditions with warmer upper level airmasses. Warmer oceans. All connected I would say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 49 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Yup. Was hoping for a little snow but that seems unlikely now. Going to be staying 3 nights in west Yellowstone and 2 nights in whitefish near kalispell. Definitely going to Yellowstone and grand teton…might even hit glacier on my way back north. Enjoy your trip! My experience is that it really pays to hang around the main (i.e. Upper) geyser basin for a number of hours. Odds are you will probably catch a number of eruptions in addition to Old Faithful. At Norris Geyser Basin, Steamboat (world’s largest!) is in an active cycle, so if you’re lucky it just might put on a show for you. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Phil said: SEA NWS drawing similarities October 1987. Niño winter, but interesting nonetheless. 1987-88 was near complete sh*t further north, but like a lot of El Ninos it had a pretty decent and extended cold stretch for NW OR and SW WA from mid December to mid January following the early December jet extension. No major airmasses but just persistently chilly with a number of modest snowfalls. Edited October 6, 2022 by BLI snowman 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 smoke is back today. gross. wanted to enjoy the warm afternoon grilling and having some brews. oof 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Fog has been replaced by smoke. Very stinky out here again. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Major pattern change between the 20-25th. It’s pretty much a done deal. 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Just now, ShawniganLake said: Major pattern change between the 20-25th. It’s pretty much a done deal. Are you trying to do your own Jim Jinx? 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Major pattern change between the 20-25th. It’s pretty much a done deal. Clown range has never been wrong! Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 48 minutes ago, T-Town said: Sounds like an awesome road trip. Haven’t been to montana since I was like 8 years old…never been to Wyoming. So it’ll basically be a whole new experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Are you trying to do your own Jim Jinx? that's a reverse jinx, in order to jinx the original jinx 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Enjoy your trip! My experience is that it really pays to hang around the main (i.e. Upper) geyser basin for a number of hours. Odds are you will probably catch a number of eruptions in addition to Old Faithful. At Norris Geyser Basin, Steamboat (world’s largest!) is in an active cycle, so if you’re lucky it just might put on a show for you. I plan on spending half of my first day there in Yellowstone and the other half down at grand Teton. Then a full day the second day then going back up northwest to flathead lake area. Thanks for the tip really hoping to see some wildlife there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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