Doinko Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Let's hope the atmosphere remembers that track a few more times this winter (sorry Tiger). I know the track won't end up exactly like this run is showing of course, but I was wondering, is a NW to SE track better for the Portland area or a more SW to NE track of the low, or just a W to E track? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 00z GEM 10 Day GIF 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 96 hours is actually a reasonably significant amount of time from a 500mb standpoint, at least during a generally progressive time of the year like late October. In 2003 we went from 72 on October 28 to snow on November 1. The evolution in this case is pretty interesting though... the eastern trough lifts into Canada and then carves out a deep trough over the west. Its actually rapid retrogression rather than progression. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 3 hours ago, snow_wizard said: No doubt they are often wrong from that range. I was just saying don't assume they will always be wrong. With weather and models anytime you get too comfortable with an idea you will surely get burned. Please remember this later in the season when Clown Range maps are fantastic but unrealistic. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Doiinko said: I know the track won't end up exactly like this run is showing of course, but I was wondering, is a NW to SE track better for the Portland area or a more SW to NE track of the low, or just a W to E track? Pretty hard to get deep lows that truly move due W to E, although 1/10/2017 was reasonably close. I would say it depends on the system, but SW to NE is usually a safer bet for heavier totals as it obviously advects in the available cold air faster. Downside is that those can also mix things out pretty cleanly as the low departs (1/1/2004). 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The evolution in this case is pretty interesting though... the eastern trough lifts into Canada and then carves out a deep trough over the west. Its actually rapid retrogression rather than progression. I would say rapid retrogression is progressive, though. May be splitting hairs but I tend to think of there being multiple ways to mark a "progressive" pattern, not just with a screaming jet stream as is sometimes thought. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Pretty hard to get deep lows that truly move due W to E, although 1/10/2017 was reasonably close. I would say it depends on the system, but SW to NE is usually a safer bet for heavier totals as it obviously advects in the available cold air faster. Downside is that those can also mix things out pretty cleanly as the low departs (1/1/2004). Ahhh 2004, that was fun. A decent week of snow leading up to that over running event. We had freezing rain at the end, so the snow stuck around for a little bit. Ended up with an additional 3 days of Winter Vacation. Too bad that was the end of Winter though. (at least for the lowlands) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I'm planning to be at Glacier NP next weekend, so I'm definitely hoping for some leftover snow but hikeable conditions. Almost went there but decided to wait until the west entrance is open. Would’ve taken a lot of time going to the east entrance from kalispel. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Pretty hard to get deep lows that truly move due W to E, although 1/10/2017 was reasonably close. I would say it depends on the system, but SW to NE is usually a safer bet for heavier totals as it obviously advects in the available cold air faster. Downside is that those can also mix things out pretty cleanly as the low departs (1/1/2004). Was the low on 2/9/2019 an example of the cold air advecting too slow for the precip type to stay as snow for the entire metro area? That was slightly annoying but we kind of made up for it late in the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This evolution from a very deep trough to a strong ridge in the east and the exact opposite in the west in just 4 days is quite impressive. I don't remember too many examples of a complete flip happening this fast and effectively. Unfortunately lots of weird weather stuff has happened in the last couple of years that most of us don't remember happening before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I'm planning to be at Glacier NP next weekend, so I'm definitely hoping for some leftover snow but hikeable conditions. Nice, should be fun as long as it’s not too snowy. Right now this weekend storm seems to be favoring the southern portions of the state but NW MT could be hit harder next week with more northwest flow. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Almost went there but decided to wait until the west entrance is open. Would’ve taken a lot of time going to the east entrance from kalispel. Yeah and I'm staying in Whitefish so it'll be a long drive in but hopefully worth it. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Was the low on 2/9/2019 an example of the cold air advecting too slow for the precip type to stay as snow for the entire metro area? That was slightly annoying but we kind of made up for it late in the month. That one was a good example of NNW to SSE movement. Advected in just enough cold air as it tracked inland to help the east metro but left the rest of the area on the fringes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, Requiem said: Would be nice get a good old southerly windstorm, can't remember the last significant one down here (2019 or 2017 maybe) Not a fan of power outages but the pineapple express that would come with it sounds great. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Was the low on 2/9/2019 an example of the cold air advecting too slow for the precip type to stay as snow for the entire metro area? That was slightly annoying but we kind of made up for it late in the month. It was too far north. And 2-25-19 was too far south. Y'all got really unlucky that winter. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Looks like Portland won't be reaching 80 anymore tomorrow. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 The Canadian is destroying the GFS right now. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: It was too far north. And 2-25-19 was too far south. Y'all got really unlucky that winter. It did give PDX 5" of snow though, it just decided to screw anyone west of that with nothing at all. 2/25/19 did give us 3" of snow here which was nice, so it could've been worse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah and I'm staying in Whitefish so it'll be a long drive in but hopefully worth it. Yeah I stayed there it was a pretty nice town. First time I’ve been there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Nice run! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Yeah I stayed there it was a pretty nice town. First time I’ve been there. Really nice scenery there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Here's the 00z ICON. 7 PM Thursday to Wednesday 5 AM 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Good thread. 3 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Don't see this every October 18. 4 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Pretty decent GFS run. Looks like one night in there early next week that could have frost besides all of the rain and mountain snow. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 At least the GFS is finally wet! lol 5 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 This must be why Pivotal is SO SLOW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Just now to Day 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Doiinko said: Low passing just to the south of Portland! Really nice baroclinicity being shown as well. Great snow setup if it were a bit later. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 SMOKE FORECAST There is hope for some smoke clearing Wednesday evening. Read below. Western Oregon is seeing conditions continue to degrade and smoke is being pulled south. Earlier in the day, conditions were bad only around Vancouver and eastern Portland burbs, but it has sunk south as predicted. Northwest Washington and the Lower Mainland have seen conditions gotten worse overall since last posted. Most of Whatcom County is in Hazardous air conditions. We are talking about AQI's in the 300s and 400s. For the first time in this smoke event, the San Juan Islands have been effected as well. Winds are blowing N in most cases in this part of the region and smoke from from all the fires is going in their direction and getting stopped by a crosswind... it's stagnating the smokey air there and just sitting there. But keep reading the forecast below, relief is coming soon. The Puget Sound has stagnated but there is a slight southern flow. Obviously not enough to clean things out right now. So use this model imagery below as a before.... And an after!! 2 of the 3 models are now predicting some sort of clearing out tomorrow (Wednesday) evening. This is showing 11pm. Of course I will keep checking the latest runs, but if this holds up, it will definitely help clean out areas for sure. Especially the North Sound and Seattle, and coastal areas in the South Sound. Note that the majority of the day, there will still be an offshore flow pulling in more smoke, and this is fire-warning conditions for the Cascade's and the foothills. Oregon's western half will see conditions continue to go downward, but it won't be anything like Washington has been seeing for almost a month. The worst conditions will be in NW Oregon. Winds have shifts fully southward in W Oregon and a lot of the smoke from Washington will blow into your direction. Expect mostly moderate to unhealthy conditions and you can expect this going into Thursday as well as it doesn't see winds will shift. The one model that isn't showing clearing on Wednesday is instead holding off clearing till Thursday. First image shows it's prediction for Wednesday evening and the second image shows it's Thursday clearing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: At least the GFS is finally wet! lol There has been a lot of talk on here that either an extremely wet or very cold outcome was pretty likely after such a ridiculous period of warm/dry weather. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: There has been a lot of talk on here that either an extremely wet or very cold outcome was pretty likely after such a ridiculous period of warm/dry weather. I think it'll be both I remember 2006 it was a very wet start to the month of November with flooding and ending with an Arctic outbreak and snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: SMOKE FORECAST There is hope for some smoke clearing Wednesday evening. Read below. Western Oregon is seeing conditions continue to degrade and smoke is being pulled south. Earlier in the day, conditions were bad only around Vancouver and eastern Portland burbs, but it has sunk south as predicted. Northwest Washington and the Lower Mainland have seen conditions gotten worse overall since last posted. Most of Whatcom County is in Hazardous air conditions. We are talking about AQI's in the 300s and 400s. For the first time in this smoke event, the San Juan Islands have been effected as well. Winds are blowing N in most cases in this part of the region and smoke from from all the fires is going in their direction and getting stopped by a crosswind... it's stagnating the smokey air there and just sitting there. But keep reading the forecast below, relief is coming soon. The Puget Sound has stagnated but there is a slight southern flow. Obviously not enough to clean things out right now. So use this model imagery below as a before.... And an after!! 2 of the 3 models are now predicting some sort of clearing out tomorrow (Wednesday) evening. This is showing 11pm. Of course I will keep checking the latest runs, but if this holds up, it will definitely help clean out areas for sure. Especially the North Sound and Seattle, and coastal areas in the South Sound. Note that the majority of the day, there will still be an offshore flow pulling in more smoke, and this is fire-warning conditions for the Cascade's and the foothills. Oregon's western half will see conditions continue to go downward, but it won't be anything like Washington has been seeing for almost a month. The worst conditions will be in NW Oregon. Winds have shifts fully southward in W Oregon and a lot of the smoke from Washington will blow into your direction. Expect mostly moderate to unhealthy conditions and you can expect this going into Thursday as well as it doesn't see winds will shift. The worst first half of October ever. Period. Thanks for the frequent updates and all of the time it takes to do so. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted October 19, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Tomorrow will be the last day of Summer 2022 in Seattle. A buffed marine layer on Thursday will keep things cool and drizzly, staying below 60F. Friday brings about much colder air and our pattern change. That means this is it. One more day of anomalous heat and smoke. Just get through it. 9 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: The worst first half of October ever. Period. Thanks for the frequent updates and all of the time it takes to do so. I cannot think of a worse October honestly. And what stinks is that if all this smoke wasn't here, it would have been a beautiful fall with many crisp clear days. The smoke ruined it for us all to enjoy the beauty of this region. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 4 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by SouthHillFrosty,
Congrats Frosty!!!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
35 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by T-Town,
Incredible tornado footage.
Recommended by Meatyorologist
13 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.