snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just think if the LRC is really in effect and we do this again around New Years! 7 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I’d be happy with something below 14F. Hasn’t dropped below -10C since I moved to this house in 2014. I hit 3 degrees here last December which I was not expecting since we typically do great with snow right here but not so much with min temps unlike places like the Arlington airport which is regularly much cooler than me during clear cold nights. 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Just think if the LRC is really in effect and we do this again around New Years! Weeklies showed this 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Meanwhile a very gloomy wet morning here with 41 degrees. Looks like a fair shot at holding highs in the low 40s here today. That would make a much cooler Thanksgiving / Friday combo that had been expected after yesterday's 51/30 and last night's low of 36. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 GEM 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 .40” already on the day, 7.09” on the not so dry month here. Currently dumping buckets and dark! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: I hit 3 degrees here last December which I was not expecting since we typically do great with snow right here but not so much with min temps unlike places like the Arlington airport which is regularly much cooler than me during clear cold nights. Snow cover makes such a difference. I will never forget how fast it plunged into the single digits here Nov 2010 after the snow. That night would have made a run at zero if the clearing had held. 3 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 8 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said: Need fuel for the Night Shift later. Here's the dilemma. I want pizza. I only see Totinos. Growing up when I was a kid that was a treat, and now they taste like fresh dog shit. I do need model riding fuel though.... Resorting to a sandwich at this point would be depressing like admitting defeat to the possible crummy 00z EURO/EPS trends. Cereal is okay, but feels like a heck of a compromise. Apple slices? I may as well strap on a helmet and get a coloring book. This is not too dissimilar to when I was in Bi-mart yesterday. Friggin New Kids on the Block was playing over the PA. I felt like I was being thrown off a bridge. I was about to end it right there next to the pillows and almonds. Just have to keep trudging on. Better model runs ahead. I barely remember typing this. Oh, I did opt for the pizza. I added fresh mozzarella, fresh parmesan, basil, italian seasoning, sliced olives, a dash of cayenne red pepper, and it actually turned out pretty dang good! 12z ECMWF in 1 hour 2 minutes 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: Weeklies showed this Maybe just maybe this could be our year. 6 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 In current weather news……It is awesome outside right now. IMG_0684.MOV 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 12z GEFS Day 5 (Past 4 runs) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 This November will go down with my only sub-60 high for the entire month. Previous record was 61. Only had records since 2011, but still. Also 16th freeze this morning, adding to the monthly record. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I can’t believe some ppl canceled winter last night smh 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 We’re roughly 60 hours away from the first shot of cold air and the beginning of the overall pattern shift. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 12z GEFS Day 5 850s (Past 4 runs) Trending colder! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The GEFS now show a mean of -9.6 on the 850s on the 30th which is the coldest yet. That's only the first shot! 4 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 5 model comparison. 850s GEFS, GFS. GEFS much colder! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Maybe just maybe this could be our year. We deserve it. All the heat we endured. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I told you there would be a temporary downturn in the models right after I got my mower converted to plow duty. Has happened every single time now! Looks like we are already bouncing back though, usually takes about two days so we are in great shape! 5 2 2 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: IF only the EURO follows this later. We would not be able to contain ourselves, and I'd probably pee a little. Who are we kidding. A LOT. Time for some model riding apparel 1 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: In current weather news……It is awesome outside right now. IMG_0684.MOV You actually got some fall color. Here the leaves basically withered and are down already. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: You actually got some fall color. Here the leaves basically withered and are down already. Well I’m sure you probably hand picked them off the trees in your area to accelerate the winter transition too. 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Is the 12Z GFS scenario for Wednesday similar to what happened in December 1990 in the Seattle area? 4 3 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: This November will go down with my only sub-60 high for the entire month. Previous record was 61. Only had records since 2011, but still. Also 16th freeze this morning, adding to the monthly record. I have a very good shot at every low being 40 or below. It wouldn't surprise me if that has never happened in my records. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Well I’m sure you probably hand picked them off the trees in your area to accelerate the winter transition too. Not this time. I really am glad you guys got such a kick out of that. 1 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 37 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Our pee would freeze before it hit the ground if this absurdity verified. Hey, all time record low for Hoquiam. 1 1 1 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Is the 12Z GFS scenario for Wednesday similar to what happened in December 1990 in the Seattle area? Pretty similar although the snow area wasn't as widespread with that one as what is being shown. That was another that is burned into my memory. Great event! Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 12z GEFS Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 12z GEFS Day 6 850s (Past 4 runs) Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Hey, all time record low for Hoquiam. Four degrees colder than Yakima. Seems doable. 1 1 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 We're going to end up with a mega cold pool and prolific low level blast for a week+ 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Is the 12Z GFS scenario for Wednesday similar to what happened in December 1990 in the Seattle area? That one was more of a thin, intense convergence zone along the arctic front. Most of Seattle got 6-12" of snow, but SEA got very little with that one. What the 12z shows would be more of a widespread snowfall with the low coming across the South Sound. Looks more like 11/22/10 to me. 8 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 12z GEFS Day 6 (Past 4 runs) It has really gotten onto the sustained cold bandwagon now. I'm thinking the ECMWF will move toward the GFS. I forgot to mention the 6z EPS control was better than the 0z at day 6. 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Looks like we lose this ridge but a new ridge is already forming towards the end of the run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: I barely remember typing this. Oh, I did opt for the pizza. I added fresh mozzarella, fresh parmesan, basil, italian seasoning, sliced olives, a dash of cayenne red pepper, and it actually turned out pretty dang good! 12z ECMWF in 1 hour 2 minutes You sure you don't smoke weed? That sounds very much like a late night stoner snack. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Feast your eyeballs on this!! Good model agreement between the 12z GEM, GFS and ICON for the middle of next week. Snow down to sea level or pretty close west of the Cascades during the Wednesday night into Thursday time period. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Next Saturday evening 850 and mslp, past 4 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 EURO is finally going to drop the Siberian Sledgehammer. Ya gotta believe!!!!! 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: That one was more of a thin, intense convergence zone along the arctic front. Most of Seattle got 6-12" of snow, but SEA got very little with that one. What the 12z shows would be more of a widespread snowfall with the low coming across the South Sound. Looks more like 11/22/10 to me. I think the Arctic front was so overpowering in Dec 1990 that is screwed places south of Seattle. The wind shift period was just too brief for places further south. I was lucky to be living in the zone at that time. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Randyc321 said: You sure you don't smoke weed? That sounds very much like a late night stoner snack. Negative. Pizza is LIFE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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