kokaneekidz Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 39 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening. Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the lowlands. Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through. However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of precipitation. The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely. For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal convergence early Wednesday morning. The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday morning. They took the high road and decided to talk it down vs big mouth jinxed it. I like this jedi mind trick route they have taken. TOP NOTCH INDEED!@@ 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Light snow and 30 degrees here. Have been checking outside occasionally to see if anything’s falling. It’s clouded up but haven’t seen any flakes here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: If only. 1 1 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 29 minutes ago, MossMan said: I think they wrote that AFD just to see our reaction to it…They are probably all gathered around one of their computers laughing at our posts as we speak! 2 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xfkirsten Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Ah... right in the aqua band. Thanks for letting me dream, Druncle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 26.6F here. Forecast is for 4-8” of snow tomorrow evening 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: If only. The trouble with kuchera is its as if the snow never melts or sublimated upon landing on earth. I really want to move to kuchera land 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thickhog Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Gross 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 27.5˚F. 1 1 3 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 35/23 here now. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The cold just keeps on giving. We are on a roll right now. Coldest November in almost 30 years a lock now. Looks like it will end up coldest since 1985 at OLM, and second coldest all-time! 7 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 26/22 at my location. 1 1 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 1 Number of 85+ days - 1 (warmest so far - 85) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Here's how the WRF handles the Wednesday night/Thursday morning snow. 925mb temps are well below freezing at this time so temps wouldn't be an issue. 9 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Looks like it will end up coldest since 1985 at OLM, and second coldest all-time! We’re -3.9 MTD here. December will be off to a good start by the looks of it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Here's how the WRF handles the Wednesday night/Thursday morning snow. 925mb temps are well below freezing at this time so temps wouldn't be an issue. Ocean Shores goes crazy 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Here's how the WRF handles the Wednesday night/Thursday morning snow. 925mb temps are well below freezing at this time so temps wouldn't be an issue. By 4 A.M. it has changed to rain south of shoreline, and Hood Canal / Bellingham also? Okay. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said: Despite all the watches and advisories the NWS seems pretty hesitant to pull the trigger in their discussion. The north half of King County is golden tomorrow night IMO. The south half is wait and see. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Meanwhile, this doesn't suck 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 The WRF is bizarre, the "snow shadowed" areas follow the outflow. There's no way the current outflow is going to eat away all the snow, if anything it should enhance the precipitation shield. Victoria may get screwed tomorrow for other reasons but there's no way it will extend all the way up to Hope. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Here's how the WRF handles the Wednesday night/Thursday morning snow. 925mb temps are well below freezing at this time so temps wouldn't be an issue. I-5 special. 5 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said: The WRF is bizarre, the "snow shadowed" areas follow the outflow. There's no way the current outflow is going to eat away all the snow, if anything it should enhance the precipitation shield. Victoria may get screwed tomorrow for other reasons but there's no way it will extend all the way up to Hope. WRF always does funny stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TacomaWx Posted November 29, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 It’s snowing here in Tacoma! IMG_2114.MOV 17 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: We’re -3.9 MTD here. December will be off to a good start by the looks of it. My month to date average is 39.7. Even here a November below 40 is a pretty big deal. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, Gummy said: By 4 A.M. it has changed to rain south of shoreline, and Hood Canal / Bellingham also? Okay. That's Tuesday's storm. My post was about Wednesday night/Thursday morning's system which is a totally different setup. 3 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Meanwhile, this doesn't suck Big run to run change as well. Good sign. 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Meanwhile, this doesn't suck Better than the 18z looked! 2 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 1 Number of 85+ days - 1 (warmest so far - 85) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Very anxious for this EURO run! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, bainbridgekid said: That's Tuesday's storm. My post was about Wednesday night/Thursday morning's system which is a totally different setup. I'm really liking the looks of Wednesday night for this area. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Water is FROZEN outside. 6 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 1 - until further notice King EURO has been demoted and removed from the royal throne. He has to show the goods and then shall be restored as the King. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Got to say, the collective hive mind here is much appreciated. Always see new details or perspectives highlighted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 00z Euro Day 0 (Init): 4 Run Trend: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: That thing is flying!! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Sorry Rob! You want the Euro tonight? 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: WRF always does funny stuff. It has some weird terrain issues, I've seen it do this with downsloping on the west side of the cascades too when the winds are more easterly and it leaves a gaping snow hole there. It's pretty bad for a model that's supposedly designed to account for our complicated terrain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Sorry Rob! You want the Euro tonight? Nope, please go ahead. Make it yet ANOTHER good run for the night! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: 00z Euro Day 0 (Init): 4 Run Trend: This looks like it's moved a bit east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Water is FROZEN outside. We had a stone bird bath when I was a kid. There was water in it. It FROZE solid. Think this must have been 95 or 96. I had lots of fun breaking the ice in our pond with a hammer so we could feed the fish. I decided to break the ice in the bird bath so the birds could bathe. Made sense to me. I broke the ice. I also broke the bird bath. The end. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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