November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Slushy Inch]

If this lobe goes south, probably highs in mid-twenties for Seattle.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So much for the south Sound donut hole.

I don’t think areas much farther south got much accumulation. A very fine line with this 

[Deweydog]

Bird bath busting weather in Prince George at day ten.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

If this lobe goes south, probably highs in mid-twenties for Seattle.

Hate to sound like everyone’s favorite lawyer here but teleconnectively there isn’t much to shove that south on that map, at face value.

[Blizzard777]

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I don’t think areas much farther south got much accumulation. A very fine line with this 

My brother sent a photo and it looks like 0.7” roughly on the ruler at home. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Big picture take away is the general pattern of blocking and cold air in western Canada doesn’t look to be going anywhere. Should be lots of interesting model riding going forward at very least.

I did notice the Euro gives PDX another few inches of snow in an overrunning type set up early next week. In the wake of the cold airmass we get brushed with on this run.

[gusky]

11am forecast vs. observations

KSEA

DP: HRRR 32, NAM 33, actual 30-31.

Temps: HRRR 34, NAM 35, actual 34.

KBFI

DP: HRRR 33, NAM 33, actual 32.

Temps: HRRR 34, NAM 35, actual 32.

 

Still running a tad under forecast in most cases here. 

[TacomaWx]

Looks like just over an inch here in Kent…still snowing lightly. 

[Phishy Wx]

can someone Kuchera me a 12z Euro 240h snow map?

[MossMan]

Speaking of teleconnections…Here is the GFS PNA squiggly liney thingy’s. 

[gusky]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

can someone Kuchera me a 12z Euro 240h snow map?

[SnowySeeker50]

Got a good atleast half inch on everything except the road. Lightened up now.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Big picture take away is the general pattern of blocking and cold air in western Canada doesn’t look to be going anywhere. Should be lots of interesting model riding going forward at very least.

I did notice the Euro gives PDX another few inches of snow in an overrunning type set up early next week. In the wake of the cold airmass we get brushed with on this run.

Hoping we get a more suppressed jet

[joelgombiner]

Snow increasing in north Seattle. 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, gusky said:

i'm in E WA.  can I get a regional one?

[gusky]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

i'm in E WA.  can I get a regional one?

here ya go!

[Blizzard777]

37 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd guess Seatac tacoma area will transition to rain between 2:30 and 5pm

 

it’s inevitable Mr. Anderson 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, gusky said:

here ya go!

not much different than the 10:1 here, thinking some marginal accumulations at some point.  must be the warm nose its hinting tomorrow here

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Snow picking up in Central District. My Dad is over in Belfair, looks like some sort of shadowing happening there but live cam in Union looks like thick snow just to south of him. If anyone is in Union or Shelton to confirm?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Flakes are now falling harder here, though “harder” is still relative. It’s still light stuff. I just don’t have to go up to a window and look very closely to see any flakes. It is now obvious from a glance that it is snowing out there.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hoping we get a more suppressed jet

That definitely looks to be a theme the next 7-10 days too. The South Cascades, Trinity Alps and Sierra get absolutely hammered. Nice to see after so much drought down there recently.

[TacomaWx]

Up to 34 in Tacoma. I suspect unless we start getting heavier precip rates the first event may be wrapping up in the south sound. 

[SeanNyberg]

90 minute difference, my backyard out near Issaquah.

[Phishy Wx]

High Clouds moving in. 19 with a DP of 14

 

don't think we'll get much above 25 ish

 

setting the stage for tonight/tomorrow.  should pile up pretty good if we can limit the warm nose intrusion tomorrow

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said:

frankly i'm as concerned as you are about the gfs day 16 500mb pattern but I thought I'd look for some large scale features to help me sleep at night

Okay. Just thought I’d note it’s at 10mb.  Probably quite a few newish members on here on a day like today might not even notice it’s not a 500mb map. 

[MossMan]

Snow stopped here at work. It’s over. Trace of new snow on the ground. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Onshore flow = no snow

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Looks like lots of green popping up on radar 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Up to 34 in Tacoma. I suspect unless we start getting heavier precip rates the first event may be wrapping up in the south sound. 

Very light snow. Snow is starting to fall off trees and melt on the road. 
 

I can report it has turned to rain already in South Hill 

[Weiner Warrior]

Current situation in Bellevue

[Slushy Inch]

20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hate to sound like everyone’s favorite lawyer here but teleconnectively there isn’t much to shove that south on that map, at face value.

There are ridges all around it and there is a trough to its south... Path of least resistance. Of course, may just move west out to sea. Time will tell.

[joelgombiner]

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Very light snow. Snow is starting to fall off trees and melt on the road. 
 

I can report it has turned to rain already in South Hill 

Time for the big show in the central/ north sound! Our time will be tomorrow night . Very pleased at how this event turned out down here got more than i thought we would. Been a fun day at work here in Kent out in the snow. 

[Blizzard777]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Up to 34 in Tacoma. I suspect unless we start getting heavier precip rates the first event may be wrapping up in the south sound. 

Have to say regardless it’s been a fun couple days.  Looking forward to this being the trend for the season….I Hope! 

[xfkirsten]

Snowfall is picking up a bit again, but the accumulation is starting to look a bit wet and "puddly". Definitely showing signs of the warmer weather. (Also showing signs that I should have swept my deck when it was still dry )

[gusky]

Temps starting to rise a bit more at SeaTac, around 34 with a quick jump to 36.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

There are ridges all around it and there is a trough to its south... Path of least resistance

doesn't necessarily work that way.  needs a mechanism to get pushed south or something strong to pull it down.  it may stay where it is if the setup isn't dynamic enough to move it

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Jginmartini said:

Have to say regardless it’s been a fun couple days.  Looking forward to this being the trend for the season….I Hope! 

I think something is coming again in a few weeks. Tomorrow night looks good and there’s potential for later this week/weekend. 

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Very light snow. Snow is starting to fall off trees and melt on the road. 
 

I can report it has turned to rain already in South Hill 

Ouch, a radar shot I try to avoid !!! 
Must scroll faster Jim !!!