November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Realistically, how long do we hold onto the snow at let's say each of the following points Olympia/Tacoma/Seattle/Everett? 

Looks like 2-3 am for north of Seattle.

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, fubario said:

Buddy sitting on tarmac at Seatac for 2+ hours waiting for de-icing. Guess Seatac still has only one de-icer for the whole airport, huh?

they better work that out by next tuesday, I have to go thru there.

[Slushy Inch]

At this point NWS needs to put out some more winter storm warnings.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Realistically, how long do we hold onto the snow at let's say each of the following points Olympia/Tacoma/Seattle/Everett? 

Worth noting that this is a warm front so I do agree with the AFD w/ the transition to rain.. where you draw the line is difficult but I think Everett is a lot safer than say Tacoma/Olympia. Lots of uncertainty still around Central sound imo. 

[MossMan]

Snow globe at work! 

[fubario]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

they better work that out by next tuesday, I have to go thru there.

if there's any snow...you'll be delayed. guaranteed.

[Nov1985]

5 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Latest HRRR has Seattle switching over to rain at 1PM and staying rain for the rest of the 18h run.  

It'll be interesting to see just how bad the HRRR can be.

Check what the latest run shows for your location's temp and dew point vs what it actually is. For me, the run currently in progress is warmer at 10 am than reality by 2.5° / 1.5°. That's pretty piss poor for a 1 hr out forecast. 

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Yeah.  It looks like bulk of the precip is moving in about the time modeled.  You think the stuff this morning was just a little early bonus?

Good call

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, gusky said:

It's somewhat caved for other areas too. Look at that upward trend!

In large part due to an increase in precipitation amounts this evening. It's going to get heavy!

[fubario]

Euro..

[Chewbacca Defense]

Meanwhile we are getting filtered sunshine here in Bellingham, temp is 27, DP is 17

[Snownerd3000]

This is going to be great snowball/snowman making snow

[joelgombiner]

Just now, fubario said:

Euro..

Inflation is spilling over into the Euro's temperature estimates. The wage-price-temperature spiral. 

[The Blob]

I look forward to waking up from my nap and having 30 new pages that I'll never catch up on. And just skipping to the December thread in 2 days.

[Cloud]

At the surface level, the Euro is trending colder heading into Friday than previous runs. 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Creating a second thread on November 29th Is wild

Brain Blast wild! 
Big flakes currently

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Jginmartini said:

Brain Blast wild! 
Big flakes currently

Was bout to say that also. Flakage size is increasing

[TacomaWx]

Euro still looks good for snow here in the south sound tomorrow night. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Was bout to say that also. Flakage size is increasing

We need reinforcements 

[skywatcher]

Lightly snowing and temperature is hovering right around 33 in Maple Valley. Looks like the roads have warmed up enough to where they are just wet, so hopefully driving home this afternoon won't be too terrible. Hopefully. 

[Blizzard777]

24 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Over the inch mark! Snow is winding down 

Go draw some nice huge eyeballs on that car!!!

[gusky]

Quick investigation into predicted DP and temps vs. observed DP and temps.

KSEA

DP: HRRR 31, NAM 32, actual 28-30.

Temps: HRRR 32, NAM 35, actual 32.

KBFI

DP: HRRR 31, NAM 32, actual 30.

Temps: HRRR 34, NAM 34, actual 32.

 

Things aren't looking too bad. Conditions can change fast, but so far temps and DPs have stayed below forecast.

[Skagit Weather]

I don't know what people are talking about with respect to the Euro failing. I mean maybe temperatures are slightly cooler than the Euro was forecasting, but in terms snowfall amounts, the Saturday night run (and every run since then) looks pretty similar to the run coming out this morning. Yes, the focus of the snowfall has shifted slightly south, but only by a couple of miles.

And we don't have verification for any of the amounts yet so it looks to me likely that it will end up being much more correct than the 20" spit out by the GFS for the last couple days.

[MikeInEverett]

How is the Euro looking for the central sound tomorrow night and Thursday morning?

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know what people are talking about with respect to the Euro failing. I mean maybe temperatures are slightly cooler than the Euro was forecasting, but in terms snowfall amounts, the Saturday night run (and every run since then) looks pretty similar to the run coming out this morning. Yes, the focus of the snowfall has shifted slightly south, but only by a couple of miles.

And we don't have verification for any of the amounts yet so it looks to me likely that it will end up being much more correct than the 20" spit out by the GFS for the last couple days.

The Euro busted for the central/south sound. I am already equal to my 24 hour snow totals on the Euro.

[Hawksfan2008]

[xfkirsten]

21 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Even higher snow amounts on new EURO for Bothell, approaching 9 inches. Less will accumulate obviously.

EURO now puts me in the light purple, inching closer... Keep going...

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know what people are talking about with respect to the Euro failing. I mean maybe temperatures are slightly cooler than the Euro was forecasting, but in terms snowfall amounts, the Saturday night run (and every run since then) looks pretty similar to the run coming out this morning. Yes, the focus of the snowfall has shifted slightly south, but only by a couple of miles.

And we don't have verification for any of the amounts yet so it looks to me likely that it will end up being much more correct than the 20" spit out by the GFS for the last couple days.

Euro never had the precipitation amounts that it is showing now, it is a big shift.

[TacomaWx]

Looking back we probably should’ve expected over performance in the south sound. Cold air is always harder to scour out than modeled. It’ll still switch over eventually but nice event. 33 in Tacoma. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hoquiam switched to rain already.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hoquiam switched to rain already.

[Blizzard777]

22 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Realistically, how long do we hold onto the snow at let's say each of the following points Olympia/Tacoma/Seattle/Everett? 

Enjoy the moment at least that’s what I’m doing. The south wind or shadowing will take away the fun at some point though….junk food on standby to get me through that painful moment. 

 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hoquiam switched to rain already.

Still got some time for some more accumulation in the south sound! 

[Nov1985]

The Euro has actually moved away from the GFS over the past couple days in terms of snow vs rain transition timing. GFS has moved a bit towards Euro for the transition, but not by much. 

Euro wins if it rains in Seattle proper before 4am tonight.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know what people are talking about with respect to the Euro failing. I mean maybe temperatures are slightly cooler than the Euro was forecasting, but in terms snowfall amounts, the Saturday night run (and every run since then) looks pretty similar to the run coming out this morning. Yes, the focus of the snowfall has shifted slightly south, but only by a couple of miles.

And we don't have verification for any of the amounts yet so it looks to me likely that it will end up being much more correct than the 20" spit out by the GFS for the last couple days.

Except whatever the GFS was spitting out does not equate to snow depth or accumulated snowfall. In that regards, both are correct.  If people saw 20" Kuchera or 10:1 and actually believed they'll get 20", I don't know what to tell them. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro definitely not as bullish as the GFS on the Friday/Saturday snow for Portland. Does show us picking up an inch and a half between late tomorrow and Thursday though. Shows it happening kind of piecemeal.

[Skagit Weather]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The Euro busted for the central/south sound. I am already equal to my 24 hour snow totals on the Euro.

It looks like most runs had 0.5-1" forecast for the central/south sound which is quite similar to what the GFS was forecasting. I'm not sure any location has had significantly more than 1" of snow, have they? And I mean if that area ends up with 4-6" of snow both models will have busted.

[TacomaWx]

Euros going to attempt to bring some colder air back into the region from the north this weekend still. 

[Christensen87]

Radar filling back in, let's do this! Either way, it looks like it's going to be a super sloppy mess this evening. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Except whatever the GFS was spitting out does not equate to snow depth or accumulated snowfall. In that regards, both are correct.  If people saw 20" Kuchera or 10:1 and actually believed they'll get 20", I don't know what to tell them. 

In terms of amount of snow fallen, Euro has gone from like 2-3 inches north of Seattle to like 8.