bainbridgekid Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Pretty abnormal seeing this type of AR with the center of the low being this far north. We are used to seeing the hose coming in from Hawaii. And with this type of trajectory, Cen/Nor. Sound will be heavily shadowed. PWAT is still pretty remarkable though. It then sinks south and cold air gets pull in. Very similar trajectory as the AR we had Sunday. That one also had a very impressive shadow for the Central Sound. More moisture with Friday's overall though. 6 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 This would be pretty top tier stuff in December or January. Hopefully if for whatever reason this round doesn’t work out we see this pattern again in a month or two. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted November 2, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Thought this was an interesting and somewhat realistic take on the potential coming up. Could be wrong and maybe we see significantly colder than normal high temps in the low to mid 30s and maybe an actual snowstorm…but it might be more realistic to expect upper 30s to around 40 for highs and convective showers bringing the snow level down to the surface at times being the best chance. https://theconvergencezone.com/2022/11/01/early-november-cold-blast-expected-next-week/ Nope…I’m going for the big time score just like I had in February 2018! 8 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: MLK Day? 1 out of 31… Far better than Lloyd’s chances with Mary. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 It's so close! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Cloud said: Pretty abnormal seeing this type of AR with the center of the low being this far north. We are used to seeing the hose coming in from Hawaii. And with this type of trajectory, Cen/Nor. Sound will be heavily shadowed. PWAT is still pretty remarkable though. It then sinks south and cold air gets pull in. If the forecast holds it could end up being my wettest day I've ever recorded. And this was after Sunday was my 6th wettest day I've recorded. Current forecast is for 2.5-3.5" (although it may get a bit split between Thursday and Friday). Definitely unusual for me to be so much out of the rain shadow, but I won't believe it until we get closer. 2 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 On top of the rain... Friday evening will be quite gusty. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Next Monday night BLI drops to 28 at 12z vs 35 on the 12z run. 2 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: On top of the rain... Friday evening will be quite gusty. Nice. WRF shows a tight gradient ahead of the front/AR in the warm sector wouldn't rule out 40-45mph gusts. The active Fall continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 850s still dropping. I think one thing is for sure is that next week will be cold with maybe some snow. Let's see if we can hold this patter for a couple of weeks and try again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 2, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: 850s still dropping. I think one thing is for sure is that next week will be cold with maybe some snow. Let's see if we can hold this patter for a couple of weeks and try again. We could always bring it back on a regular basis this winter. 10 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Hard freeze next Tuesday night. Getting better! 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 The cold penetrates much further south on this run. 2 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Chilly, but not a blast. Real impressive for early November though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Day 8.5 850s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: 850s still dropping. I think one thing is for sure is that next week will be cold with maybe some snow. Let's see if we can hold this patter for a couple of weeks and try again. Looks like SEA bottoms out at -7. Noice! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Looks like there's some lightning out in the Strait currently. Saw some my flashes out to the west a couple minutes ago. Also there was a super random 6.0 earthquake out off the California coast about an hour ago. Hasn't been any seismic activity anywhere near there since at least 1900 which is kind of odd. 1 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Day 9'er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Chilly, but not a blast. Real impressive for early November though. Looks like it will get us primed for the good stuff later. This could still go bonkers though. A little lowland snow and a hard freeze would satisfy me on this round. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like SEA bottoms out at -7. Noice! Surface temps look good. It looks dry though 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Ready for the night shift GFS to show some goodies? 2 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Looks like it will get us primed for the good stuff later. This could still go bonkers though. A little lowland snow and a hard freeze would satisfy me on this round. This could flip to very cold quite easily. The next 2-3 runs may do that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 COLD east wind for the Gorge/PDX 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 This is cold for the warmest time of day! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Clear and cold later in the run. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 WRF shows a strong Westerly surge down the Straight into the Everett area Friday night. 50+ knot winds within 250 meters of the surface. 1 2 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 This is a run to run change 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Here's the snowmaker from last nights run. It's been MIA since! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 I like the backdoor cold support on this run. Just bring us a system off to our southwest and snow! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Onto the EPS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Day 10 Looks kind of splitty. Really liking the offshore flow this run shows though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 End of the Run, 850s stay below freezing 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 37.2˚F. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Nice run. I'm more into snow obv, but I can't really deny that cold crisp days aren't a PNW classic 5 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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