November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[RentonHill]

21 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

A valuable response...thank you

18z NAM shows clear skies as well...maybe a CZ sliding south around then. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Puget Sound to get rainshadowed Friday. Sad!

[TT-SEA]

The precip anomaly map from the 12Z EPS is pretty interesting... much drier than normal along the BC coast and up into SE Alaska and very wet in Oregon and most of CA.    The Seattle area is about normal... but this map will probably look dry up here as well once we get past the system on Friday.    Its usually fairly dry in my area when the focus is on OR and CA.    We have a similar set up this week.   There has been very little precip here since Monday morning... the rain approaches and the falls apart as it moves north.  

In the big picture... nature finally appears to be delivering the precip to where its needed most.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Judah must have altered this forecast tbh

 

 

 

[HuskyMaestro]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

 

I remember hearing about Jacksonville not getting a White Christmas that year despite 1-2" of snowfall because it all melted the day before. Tragic. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Judah must have altered this forecast tbh

 

 

 

Well if he did we should thank him because it's better for us, as well as for him

 

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

 

I grew up in SC.  I experienced Hugo inland in Columbia (90mph winds, power out for a week)  that winter it dumped snow just before xmas on the SC coast (shown in your post) and my cousins who lived in Myrtle Beach called when it happened to brag.  we just got flurries in columbia and I was SOOOO disappointed that I cried.  tried to beg dad to drive us 'to the beach' to see snow.  he wouldn't.

[Gummy]

[snow_wizard]

They don't pull this color out very often.  Brrrr....

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

Makes zero sense with a Nina.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Makes zero sense with a Nina.

Like much our weather in recent months.

[Phishy Wx]

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Curious when this was published?  They update the Seasonals on the 5th of every month so I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this will look different in 3 days time.

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Fake news

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

That would be very odd to have a pattern like that where parts of North Central WA and most of Idaho have above normal snow but the Cascades and Olympic are below normal.  It implies above normal precip, hence the above normal snow for those areas, but well above normal temps, hence the well below normal snow for the Cascades and the BC mountains.  Yet above normal temps would certainly extend to Idaho, Montana, and the BC mountains, wouldn't they?

[Snownerd3000]

To help you cope with that horrible Euro seasonal snow map.

[Phishy Wx]

here's the article all that came from (great site btw if you don't have it bookmarked)

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-more-snow-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[snow_wizard]

It's odd that the 500mb anom map is actually ok for us on the ECMWF seasonal forecast, but it shows above normal temps.  Last year somebody said the data set they have for normal temps for this region is wrong.  I would pay much more attention to height anom maps than temp and snowfall maps.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Like much our weather in recent months.

I will bet some $$$ that will not verify.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

To help you cope with that horrible Euro seasonal snow map.

The Euro snowfall map is crap.  At the very least having the mountains below normal in snowfall ain't going to happen.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I will bet some $$$ that will not verify.

Some wishcaster who hates seeing Mount Baker and Whistler top the snowfall list every year made that. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

FWIW last months ECMWF seasonal forecast showed a blowtorch for the PNW for November.

[ShawniganLake]

Possible cold and snow only a Few days away and the grass is still brown from summer here. Unusual!

[Iceresistance]

48 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Judah must have altered this forecast tbh

 

 

 

Yep! I spotted him on a reply twit!

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Possible cold and snow only a Few days away and the grass is still brown from summer here. Unusual!

Yeah, same. Gonna have to wait for spring for the grass to green up. 

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Todays our first day it’s really felt like winter so far this cold season. 42 and raining currently…0.04” since midnight and 0.11” MTD. 

Looks like we’ll probably top out at 45 here. Definitely a wintry day. 

[Doinko]

The 12z GEFS shows a 33/26 day for Portland on the mean!

 

[Phishy Wx]

[Iceresistance]

Climate Prediction Center has a high risk of WAY BELOW NORMAL Temperatures for Veterans Day for Washington State, Idaho, and Montana!

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Everyone says February is due to be lame… But every year we say January is due and it never happens…

Can you ask them what's gonna happen next week?  I mean if they already have Feb. figured out, next week ought be  piece of cake. 

[Deweydog]

18z hints at an anafront potential for Sunday down south…

[Cloud]

25 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Curious when this was published?  They update the Seasonals on the 5th of every month so I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this will look different in 3 days time.

He published this yesterday so probably latest run... 

 

32 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Ahhh yes, but then the UKMO buries PNW all winter. lol. 

Most notably once again in February. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Jan 2020 was great, but the fun didn’t extend very far south.

Not anywhere near a classic January even up there though.  It used to get really cold in that month (sometimes for a long period) up your way, and even down here to a decent extent.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Not anywhere near a classic January even up there though.  It used to get really cold in that month (sometimes for a long period) up your way, and even down here to a decent extent.

It was decently cold. Had a sub-20°F high at my place in North Bellingham.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

TOUCHDOWN!!!

How on earth can you possibly score a 90+ high temperature on a snow day?

[smerfylicious]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

TOUCHDOWN!!!

Need that about 50 miles north pls

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How on earth can you possibly score a 90+ high temperature on a snow day?

Mr. Burns will put a giant hairdryer over the city.

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Climate Prediction Center has a high risk of WAY BELOW NORMAL Temperatures for Veterans Day for Washington State, Idaho, and Montana!

it's posted already at the top of this page by snow wizard