November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I like snow depth tbh. I feel like it’s showing the most realistic amount. It’s just to early to get 3-4in out a fringe system 

GFS shows a bunch of snow of snow in the Puget Sound area on Sunday and Monday all with temps in the upper 30s.   It just doesn't make sense and you would think it would be an easy thing to fix in the program code... but apparently not.   Hopefully the upgrade this month will make some improvements.   Because unless there is arctic air and temperature is not an issue... you can almost always throw out the GFS snowfall maps.   Its showed half foot of snow falling around Centralia last night with those precip bands that were moving inland yesterday evening.    Just goofy.       

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Oh, I think we'll see something....

I think if there’s precip in the overnight hours under a convective shower possibly would be the only way to drop the snow level all the way down to the surface. On most of the models by the time drier cold air with lower DPs arrive the moisture is gone which is almost always one of the biggest problems with getting lowland snow around here. 

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

[BLI snowman]

21 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Uh oh

Been some consistency with that overrunning threat late next week. GFS and Canadian both agree, with the Euro at least temporarily keeping things dry.

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS shows a bunch of snow of snow in the Puget Sound area on Sunday and Monday all with temps in the upper 30s.   It just doesn't make sense and you would think it would be an easy thing to fix in the program code... but apparently not.   Hopefully the upgrade this month will make some improvements.   Because unless there is arctic air and temperature is not an issue... you can almost always throw out the GFS snowfall maps.   Its showed half foot of snow falling around Centralia last night with those precip bands that were moving inland yesterday evening.    Just goofy.       

Clearly a plot by Big Weather Forum to generate posts. Wake up sheeple. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Been some consistency with that overrunning threat late next week. GFS and Canadian both agree, with the Euro at least temporarily keeping things dry.

Looks kind of borderline though on the GFS. Canadian looks better

[lowlandsnow]

850mb temps are significantly colder on this GEFS run but it won't matter if there is no precip

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

 

Have an ice day!

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Doinko said:

Looks kind of borderline though on the GFS. Canadian looks better

Wouldn't worry too much at this stage. Just good to see the momentum continue towards a developed low level cold pool + juicy warm front combo.

And overrunning setups with cold air already entrenched in place are actually one of the few cases where the models still tend to have a slight warm bias around here.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

850mb temps are significantly colder on this GEFS run but it won't matter if there is no precip

Wow you are right. Way colder. Like as cold as the 6z run yesterday. 

[Front Ranger]

34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good point.  There are just so many things wrong with that map.  I expect better from ECMWF.

Seasonal snowfall anomaly maps are about as dumb as it gets, anyway.

[RentonHill]

18yesterday vs 18z today. GEFS 850s

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

850mb temps are significantly colder on this GEFS run but it won't matter if there is no precip

Trade-off for colder temps (kinda). The overrunning scenario might be the best bet for wintry precip or maybe some convective type showers with some people getting lucky at the onset of the colder air working in. 

[Front Ranger]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've wanted to live there for a long time.  In a big winter the lower Fraser Valley can get flat out wicked.

Didn't parts of the lower Fraser have snow on the ground for over a month in 2016-17?

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

18yesterday vs 18z today. GEFS 850s

Wow, that's significantly better. Looks like the trough has shifted east on the GEFS while it shifted west on the GFS which is probably a good sign for us.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

18yesterday vs 18z today. GEFS 850s

Looks like it’s trended east a bit…hugs the coastline versus the trajectory more over the ocean. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Trade-off for colder temps (kinda). The overrunning scenario might be the best bet for wintry precip or maybe some convective type showers with some people getting lucky at the onset of the colder air working in. 

I agree... the potential for an overrunning event later in the week is probably the best chance for lowland snow.   Particularly if there is an established cold pool east of the mountains.    There is just too much onshore flow on Sunday and Monday.   

[Doinko]

Subfreezing highs north of Portland on Tuesday

[Cloud]

November has been canceled!! 

[RentonHill]

A couple -17s on this run?? Geez

[Doinko]

Looks like fall color has peaked around now or soon. Very late

[RentonHill]

Just now, Doinko said:

Looks like fall color has peaked around now or soon. Very late

It’s peaking now whether it wants to or not…everything will be white come Monday. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

30 minutes ago, Kayla said:

NW flow into Montana. Ridge over the BC coast.

Here is what actually happened that winter

Way more snow in a lot of areas than what the ECMWF is showing, particularly the Cascades and Eastern WA/OR.  And pretty much normal elsewhere.

Interestingly AccuWeather has 2000-2001 as their top analog winter for this year, and their prediction is this:

 

[Front Ranger]

Off topic, but...I'm traveling to Lake of the Ozarks this weekend, looks like I'll experience quite the storm there Friday night.

[TacomaWx]

Jim is gonna lose his mind when he sees the 18z GEFS

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Doinko]

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Off topic, but...I'm traveling to Lake of the Ozarks this weekend, looks like I'll experience quite the storm there Friday night.

What are you doing in Lake of the Ozarks?    We loved it there.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

What are you doing in Lake of the Ozarks?    We loved it there.   

Building a drug empire for the Navarro cartel

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

TOUCHDOWN!!!

What do the temps/DPs look like at hour 99? 

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I really want you to score. One of the most random memories I have from last Christmas week was sitting in a Denny's in Hermiston Oregon and telling my wife how happy I was. It was the day you had ten inches. About how you snapped one of your streaks. 

[Sonny Summers]

56 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Cracked a beer on the clock for Drunkle

He never fails to satisfy.

[lowlandsnow]

I think for the Puget Sound the best chances of snow will be next Thursday or Friday

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Lots of sun helped me make it up to 51°F at my place today. Good chance of not just a frost but a freeze tonight if it stays clear.

[Jbolin]

21 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Have an ice day!

Apt retort, n-ice job 

[T-Town]

I will be in New Hampshire 11/14 - 18 so expect any snow to be delayed until then. 

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

18yesterday vs 18z today. GEFS 850s

Pulsating… Always pretty suspect when basically every anomaly goes through a run to run intensification. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Apt retort, n-ice job 

It was the best I could do. Given that map, a snow job was out of the question.

[Jbolin]

19 minutes ago, Cloud said:

November has been canceled!! 

Spooky ghost face