November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 8:

4 Run Trend:

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 9:

4 Run Trend:

[lowlandsnow]

Terrible GFS run for Washignton, GEFS so far is better

[Weiner Warrior]

Winter cancelled again.

[Deweydog]

Friday looks wet

[MikeInEverett]

It’s over

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Theweatherforums.com most often used cliches:

1.  Its over 

2.  Winter Cancel 

3.  Devastating Trendz

 

[Deweydog]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Theweatherforums.com most often used cliches:

1.  Its over 

2.  Winter Cancel 

3.  Devastating Trendz

4.  Backdoor Penetration 

 

Complete

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Terrible GFS run for Washignton, GEFS so far is better

I'm

 

9 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Terrible GFS run for Washignton, GEFS so far is better

You mean Western Washington.  Some of us in Washington look to be getting heavy snow.  Hopefully the rest of you will be too at some point.

[RentonHill]

GEM???

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 10:

4 Run Trend:

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Friday looks wet

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS 10 Day Precip:

10 Day Snowfall:

[Kolk1604]

No worries, GFS just had the primetime jitters 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Theweatherforums.com most often used cliches:

1.  Its over 

2.  Winter Cancel 

3.  Devastating Trendz

 

I can't find that post I did last Winter I think? The Devastating Trendz t-shirt lol. Can anyone find it?

00z ECMWF in 55 minutes

[Weiner Warrior]

[fubario]

You "winter cancel" people are exhausting.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

No worries, GFS just had the primetime jitters 

The catch is, it is modelled to be dry then.

[Requiem]

I am easy to please, just give me my cold easterlies and all is right.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The catch is, it is modelled to be dry then.

Gotta start somewhere. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, fubario said:

You "winter cancel" people are exhausting.

Besides, nothing quite says “Winter in the Northwet” like moisture that runs out just as the cold air arrives, dry blast, then massive southerly blast scours the cold air out and back to mild rain.

[umadbro]

2 minutes ago, fubario said:

You "winter cancel" people are exhausting.

9 times out of 10. It’s sarcasm. 

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, fubario said:

You "winter cancel" people are exhausting.

How can you not be devastated about tonight’s GFS? Clearly winter is over and there is nothing we should’ve ever been excited about. We just need to accept it. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Gotta start somewhere. 

At this point, our best hope for snow is to get the cold air in place then hope that something not currently in the models materializes and overruns it. Which, given that we are still talking clown range for most of next week, could well happen.

[Doinko]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

At this point, our best hope for snow is to get the cold air in place then hope that something not currently in the models materializes and overruns it. Which, given that we are still talking clown range for most of next week, could well happen.

Maybe Eugene can see snow with that system on Sunday. Temps look to be around 33-34 with very heavy precip so it could happen there!

[joelgombiner]

Isn't the GEFS just an average of 30 perturbed, lower-resolution GFS runs? 

[Doinko]

GEFS is not bad at all, these are temps in the middle of the day

[fubario]

2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

How can you not be devastated about tonight’s GFS? Clearly winter is over and there is nothing we should’ve ever been excited about. We just need to accept it. 

lol

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GEFS is not bad at all, these are temps in the middle of the day

That's still worse than the 18z GEFS

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

Isn't the GEFS just an average of 30 perturbed, lower-resolution GFS runs? 

Speaking of which, there’s at least 30 perturbed members on this forum right now.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

At this point, our best hope for snow is to get the cold air in place then hope that something not currently in the models materializes and overruns it. Which, given that we are still talking clown range for most of next week, could well happen.

That's what I'm hoping for. The cold is a lock at this point. Let's see if anything surprising shows up 

[Gradient Keeper]

The GEFS is again colder than the Op. 850s -13c to -14c over the central and eastern Gorge. I assume the GFS is simply overdoing the cold air rather how aggressively it spills southward.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

That's still worse than the 18z GEFS

The ensemble mean showing subfreezing highs north of Portland in early November is really good even if it's slightly warmer than the 18z

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Maybe Eugene can see snow with that system on Sunday. Temps look to be around 33-34 with very heavy precip so it could happen there!

Even if that would happen, and Eugene would be only lowland city to score, the real pity of it is that it wouldn’t stop the regulars there from griping how it never snows there.

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

The ensemble mean showing subfreezing highs north of Portland in early November is really good even if it's slightly warmer than the 18z

Definitely but I would like to see some snow

[Doinko]

[Front Ranger]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Going for work or for fun?

For fun.

[Sonny Summers]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Besides, nothing quite says “Winter in the Northwet” like moisture that runs out just as the cold air arrives, dry blast, then massive southerly blast scours the cold air out and back to mild rain.

We've all been at 35°F and rain at some point. It's such a bummer.

[FroYoBro]

You guys will be worn out before Thanksgiving. 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS has basically been showing the same thing for the large scale pattern for several runs now.  Everything will be in the fine details now, and they can change very quickly.