November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Need that about 50 miles north pls

It's an interesting forecast.

Snow for EUG. Snow for YVR. And rain for both SEA and PDX.

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Mr. Burns will put a giant hairdryer over the city.

Okay, that was actually really funny!

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's posted already at the top of this page by snow wizard

Oh, I was looking at this: Probabilistic Hazards Outlook (noaa.gov)

[BLI snowman]

38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Makes zero sense with a Nina.

Kinda makes zero sense on any level. Not many pattern mechanisms that would cause an even east-west split through B.C. like that and produce significant cold in north ID and significant warmth in interior WA.

Long range junk gonna junk...

Edited November 2, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Perturbed Member]

 

hmmm

[Phishy Wx]

Cracked a beer on the clock for Drunkle

[snow_wizard]

The surface cold spills more south and west 18z vs 12z.  Good freeze for most places.

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Possible cold and snow only a Few days away and the grass is still brown from summer here. Unusual!

Ours has greened up quite a bit. Been a lot wetter here, I guess.

Edited November 2, 2022 by BLI snowman

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was decently cold. Had a sub-20°F high at my place in North Bellingham.

No question it was decent, but short lived.  I'm just saying epic cold Januarys used to happen reasonably often up there where it was cold for long periods.

[Iceresistance]

If Y'all want to be even more hyped, the PNA is expected to become even more negative in a few days per CPC Teleconnections forecast!

[Kayla]

35 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That would be very odd to have a pattern like that where parts of North Central WA and most of Idaho have above normal snow but the Cascades and Olympic are below normal.  It implies above normal precip, hence the above normal snow for those areas, but well above normal temps, hence the well below normal snow for the Cascades and the BC mountains.  Yet above normal temps would certainly extend to Idaho, Montana, and the BC mountains, wouldn't they?

NW flow…ie 2000-01

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Kinda makes zero sense on any level. Not many pattern mechanisms that would cause an even east-west split through B.C. like that and produce significant cold in north ID and significant warmth in interior WA.

Long range junk gonna junk...

Good point.  There are just so many things wrong with that map.  I expect better from ECMWF.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[BLI snowman]

Looking like Friday could see 24 hour rainfall totals go over 3" in the Portland area and in SW WA.

Would love to see PDX's pathetically wimpy all time calendar day record of 2.69" finally go down. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kayla said:

NW flow…ie 2000-01

NW flow wouldn't cause a huge snowfall shortage on the BC Coast like what is being shown.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Looking like Friday could see 24 hour rainfall totals go over 3" in the Portland area and in SW WA.

Would love to see PDX's pathetically wimpy all time calendar day record of 2.69" finally go down. 

That is weak.  SEA did like 5 inches in October 2003.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No question it was decent, but short lived.  I'm just saying epic cold Januarys used to happen reasonably often up there where it was cold for long periods.

My experience is just in the past few years, and so far I haven’t been disappointed in my expectation of having better access to Fraser outflow. Might well be disappointed if I was a long-timer.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My experience is just in the past few years, and so far I haven’t been disappointed in my expectation of having better access to Fraser outflow. Might well be disappointed if I was a long-timer.

I've wanted to live there for a long time.  In a big winter the lower Fraser Valley can get flat out wicked.

[Cloud]

What would be a good way to look at what the GFS is outputting in terms of snowfall? 

Given the fringy temps it's outputting for this time frame, makes sense to see nothing in terms of snow depth and from Kuchera. Most would be melted off or if there's actually any snow. 

[Doinko]

Uh oh

[snow_wizard]

GFS temperature maps show subfreezing temps for many hours each day early next week.

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is weak.  SEA did like 5 inches in October 2003.

And then not only broke the record of 11.62" for November but set a new record of 12.92 in November 2006. At one point, KSEA reported a 12 hour total of 3.13" 

So yea, kiss our asses  

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

NW flow wouldn't cause a huge snowfall shortage on the BC Coast like what is being shown.

NW flow into Montana. Ridge over the BC coast.

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What would be a good way to look at what the GFS is outputting in terms of snowfall? 

Given the fringy temps it's outputting for this time frame, makes sense to see nothing in terms of snow depth and from Kuchera. Most would be melted off or if there's actually any snow. 

T Town c-zone?  Sounds good. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What would be a good way to look at what the GFS is outputting in terms of snowfall? 

Given the fringy temps it's outputting for this time frame, makes sense to see nothing in terms of snow depth and from Kuchera. Most would be melted off or if there's actually any snow. 

I like snow depth tbh. I feel like it’s showing the most realistic amount. It’s just to early to get 3-4in out a fringe system 

[Doinko]

Really hoping the trough shifts east in future runs

[Kolk1604]

It would be cool if this was shown on the Euro again 

 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The precip anomaly map from the 12Z EPS is pretty interesting... much drier than normal along the BC coast and up into SE Alaska and very wet in Oregon and most of CA.    The Seattle area is about normal... but this map will probably look dry up here as well once we get past the system on Friday.    Its usually fairly dry in my area when the focus is on OR and CA.    We have a similar set up this week.   There has been very little precip here since Monday morning... the rain approaches and the falls apart as it moves north.  

In the big picture... nature finally appears to be delivering the precip to where its needed most.  

Well said.

[snow_wizard]

Cold day today.  Looks like it will only make 43 here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I like snow depth tbh. I feel like it’s showing the most realistic amount. It’s just to early to get 3-4in out a fringe system 

It shows me getting a dusting on the ground, and if that happens, I will be fine with it, given what a hideous torch the previous several months have been. We all knew those GooFuS maps showing feetz of lowland snow weren’t going to verify.

[Weiner Warrior]

I won't be happy with anything less than 16 inches.

[TacomaWx]

38 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like we’ll probably top out at 45 here. Definitely a wintry day. 

44/39 so far here. First low in the 30s this season along with our first sub 50 high. 

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I like snow depth tbh. I feel like it’s showing the most realistic amount. It’s just to early to get 3-4in out a fringe system 

Yeah, I would agree here. So to me the 10:1 output is a bit suspect. Grounds will still be relatively warm as well so even if it does fall, a lot of this will be melted off. 5 days out so not gonna focus too much on the details. Just very suspect w/ what being shown. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Yeah, I would agree here. So to me the 10:1 output is a bit suspect. Grounds will still be relatively warm as well so even if it does fall, a lot of this will be melted off. 5 days out so not gonna focus too much on the details. Just very suspect w/ what being shown. 

10:1 is hard to use lately around here. Either we have had really wet or dry snow

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Yeah, I would agree here. So to me the 10:1 output is a bit suspect. Grounds will still be relatively warm as well so even if it does fall, a lot of this will be melted off. 5 days out so not gonna focus too much on the details. Just very suspect w/ what being shown. 

I think a lot of people will actually see some snowflakes at some point…but some people in favored locations will be the only ones with sticking snow. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

GFS temperature maps show subfreezing temps for many hours each day early next week.

Spokane below freezing from Hour 111 on to this point.

[Cloud]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I think a lot of people will actually see some snowflakes at some point…but some people in favored locations will be the only ones with sticking snow. 

Oh, I think we'll see something....

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, KeVamgedon said:

I won't be happy with anything less than 16 inches.

[BLI snowman]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is weak.  SEA did like 5 inches in October 2003.

PDX's 24 hour record is 4.44" in October 1994, and they've gone over 3" in a 24 hour period several times. Just never lined it up right with the calendar, so I've always considered it pretty low-hanging fruit.

Looks like most of Friday's rainfall should be done there by 1am.

Edited November 2, 2022 by BLI snowman