November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Doinko]

Cold!

[bainbridgekid]

53 mph West winds in Everett is a hell of a Westerly surge through the Straight. Could cause some meaningful damage in Mukilteo/Whidbey. Especially since there’s a high tide at 3:30 AM Saturday morning which coincides with the strongest part of the surge on the Euro.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

53 mph West winds in Everett is a hell of a Westerly surge through the Straight. Could cause some meaningful damage in Mukilteo/Whidbey. Especially since there’s a high tide at 3:30 AM Saturday morning which coincides with the strongest part of the surge on the Euro.

Yeah, that is looking like it is funneling in straight from the Strait. 

[RentonHill]

Love it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro is not bad. Looks realistic. 

[RentonHill]

Here is PDX and SPOKES

[Sonny Summers]

I wonder what Judah thinks about this.

[Phishy Wx]

D**n Canadian Rockies, let's saw em down

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I wonder what Judah thinks about this.

His “machine learning model” says otherwise, so there!

[RentonHill]

GEM finally figured it out

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I wonder what Judah thinks about this.

Trying to choke himself with a 8 foot length of hotdog casing.

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I wonder what Judah thinks about this.

He’s happy because he know that the pattern will flip in December. 

[RentonHill]

EPS 850s dont get as cold as 00z but perhaps that represents the increased chance of precip. The temps do stick around for a bit longer, though, with more AK blocking persistence. But thats in prime junior clown range. 

[Cloud]

This hasn’t moved much… been like this since 9:30-10am this morning. Solid rates as well. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This hasn’t moved much… been like this since 9:30-10am this morning. Solid rates as well. 

Lots of blue sky out here... ULL is slipping south so the precip can't make it very far north.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very cloudy in Salem today. Only 45 at 1p

[RentonHill]

clown range but....

 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

clown range but....

 

The EPS mean also shows the potential

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

The EPS mean also shows the potential

 

Wow that's a pretty good signal for that far out.

[TT-SEA]

My son just sent a message and said a tree that fell on their house in Pullman last night.    He sent pics and the tree had full green leaves.   They didn't even get that much snow and it had already melted in the pics he sent.   But doesn't take much snow to cause problems when the trees still have leaves.   He said there are numerous trees down in the area.

[bainbridgekid]

Had some chunky rain here at school in Mountlake Terrace about an hour ago. It was enough that kids noticed out the window that “the rain looks weird!”

[TacomaWx]

Get the feeling this upcoming pattern will repeat itself a couple times before the end of the year…probably some very wet periods inbetween. This seems like the year where it’s a front loaded winter and once January hits and La Niña likely starts weakening January-March will be overwhelmingly dull. 

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

My son just sent a message and said a tree that fell on their house in Pullman last night.    He sent pics and the tree had full green leaves.   They didn't even get that much snow and it had already melted in the pics he sent.   But doesn't take much snow to cause problems when the trees still have leaves.   He said there are numerous trees down in the area.

I remember Buffalo, NY had a huge lake effect snowstorm in mid October 2006 that caused like half a billion dollars in damage for that reason. Took out a huge percentage of the trees in the city because all the trees were still fully leafed out even though the snow melted quickly.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

34 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

The EPS mean also shows the potential

 

There does seem to be a fairly consistent signal of at least ridging in the GOA/Alaska area.  In fact the GEFS and the GEM ensembles are pretty similar to the EPS.

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth
Misspelled

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Get the feeling this upcoming pattern will repeat itself a couple times before the end of the year…probably some very wet periods inbetween. This seems like the year where it’s a front loaded winter and once January hits and La Niña likely starts weakening January-March will be overwhelmingly dull. 

Last regionally warm February was 2016.

We're kind of due for another.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

The EPS mean also shows the potential

 

Lol Judah and his cronies will lose their shit!!

[Sonny Summers]

35 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

He’s happy because he know that the pattern will flip in December. 

A forecaster from another site is predicting a +PNA and a mostly +NAO for December, which would be mild for most of the country.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Lol Judah and his cronies will lose their !!

Right when its supposed to flip and it retros....lmao that would be *chefs kiss* 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Last regionally warm February was 2016.

We're kind of due for another.

Yeah we’ve had measurable snowfall in February 6 years in a row…last warmer than normal one was 2016. I just think if we see something good this winter it’ll happen before the end of the year. 

[Cloud]

 

[Perturbed Member]

49 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Here is PDX and SPOKES

6+ inches of snow in PDX with a low of 35F. Awesome.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

6+ inches of snow in PDX with a low of 35F. Awesome.

Couple that with the still-warm ground and the snow will convert directly to gas form on contact.

[Phishy Wx]

25 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

clown range but....

 

proof that Recycling is a good thing

[Deweydog]

28 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

clown range but....

 

[RentonHill]

@Deweydog is the husky game going to be wet

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Deweydog is the husky game going to be wet

https://sites.uw.edu/theuwdawgcast/

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Deweydog is the husky game going to be wet

Maybe not... close call but might be in rain shadow on Friday night there.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe not... close call but might be in rain shadow on Friday night there.

A valuable response...thank you

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Everyone says February is due to be lame… But every year we say January is due and it never happens…

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Everyone says February is due to be lame… But every year we say January is due and it never happens…

Jan 2020 was great, but the fun didn’t extend very far south.