November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[lowlandsnow]

New article from Cliff Mass

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

East coast weenies started posting 1000+ hour maps. The desperation is real 

 

 

It will flip and they won't even be paying attention to west coast weenies.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I mean……

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

72hr Rainfall totals

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I mean……

I think that's just phantom snow though given it is supposed to fall Saturday night

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

@TigerWoodsLibido

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

I think that's just phantom snow though given it is supposed to fall Saturday night

 

Looks like an intense band drops this on Seattle early Sunday 

[Doinko]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

850s (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) The big pull back appears to be beginning as the GFS moves towards the EURO.

850s (Past 4 runs)

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks like an intense band drops this on Seattle early Sunday 

Needs to shift north a few miles. 

[Meatyorologist]

A 44/37 day at KSEA today. Not bad. December like.

[MossMan]

.92” so far on the day, 1.28” for the month, nearly 6.50” for the last 13 days. 
40.91” on the year. 
38 degrees, light rain, and windy. 
39/34 on the day. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by MossMan

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Seems the pattern broke down pretty fast turning a bit progressive. I'm not sure if the GEFS will agree.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[kokaneekidz]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/03/world/tonga-eruption-plume-mesosphere-scn/index.html

 

More fascinating information about just how high the eruption has traveled within our atmosphere  

[Phishy Wx]

52 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

I had about an hour of light snow (no accumulation), now it's raining again. Think this might flop down here in the Valley

[Perturbed Member]

35F anafront south valley chunky rain

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

What a mess!

[Phishy Wx]

whomp whomp

[lowlandsnow]

Not much of a pullback so far on the GEFS

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Doinko]

GEFS is still cold

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Not much of a pullback so far on the GEFS

 

Yep. Really not much of any moderation.

[Doinko]

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS big time outlier. GEFS is just as cold as previous runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS - The Dalles. Big outlier. Mean temp -15.1c and note all of the members -15c to -17c. Interesting!

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

GEFS - The Dalles. Big outlier. Mean temp -15.1c and note all of the members -15c to -18c. Interesting!

What temp did the last ecmwf mean get to?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

45 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks like an intense band drops this on Seattle early Sunday 

With saturated air in the mid-30's F at the surface and a 925 mbar temp right at freezing? Maybe down to the higher hills given that the intensity is modeled to be high.

[snow_wizard]

It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot.  Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome.  Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get.  It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot.  Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome.  Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get.  It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however.

That's the difference between the GFS Op and GEFS hr 72-84. Trough is several notches further east on the GEFS.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot.  Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome.  Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get.  It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however.

It’s modeled to be almost on the edge, temperature-wise. Wouldn’t take much of a discrepancy from what is modeled for there to be a snowy surprise.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GEFS - The Dalles. Big outlier. Mean temp -15.1c and note all of the members -15c to -17c. Interesting!

The op is emerging as a really warm outlier.  Hard to imagine future runs not coming down a bit.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The op is emerging as a really warm outlier.  Hard to imagine future runs not coming down a bit.

It also makes me wonder if we might see the EURO colder tonight. Hmmm....

00z ECMWF in 42 minutes

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s modeled to be almost on the edge, temperature-wise. Wouldn’t take much of a discrepancy from what is modeled for there to be a snowy surprise.

On the other hand it could trend too far west but based on the GEFS I think and hope that it'll be slightly farther east than shown on the operationals.

[snow_wizard]

A chilly / dry pattern sure looks possible in the longer range.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Doinko said:

On the other hand it could trend too far west but based on the GEFS I feel and hope that it'll be slightly farther east than shown on the operationals.

West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means.

Either way this November is already seeming much better than the past few years.  And hints that the block could reset in a favorable position

[Kolk1604]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means.

Just give me another November 2010 when the models had it mispositioned and weaker. Now that was a nice surprise 

[jcmcgaffey]

And just like that Snoqualmie is closed:

[Doinko]

@NWbyNWposted this camera earlier, around 6" of snow since then

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

And just like that Snoqualmie is closed:

Snoqualmie will get so much snow this season the pass will close all winter.

[Doinko]

Mark Nelsen from his blog post:

That cool upper-level trough I mentioned earlier drops down along the West Coast and sits there Monday through Wednesday. 850mb temps bottom out around -4 to -6 C during that time; unusually cold for early November. Typically that’s around 1,500′ to 2,000′ snow levels. That’s with onshore flow. But during that time next week, we get a cool north or northeast wind as a cold arctic high pressure area will be sitting over SW Canada.
The low level airmass will also be unusually cold, including north of us. Here’s a Wednesday morning forecast temperature map; keep in mind anything under about -17 (C) on this map is 0 (F). Very unusual to have temps around zero degrees in early November just north of the U.S. border.

With that chilly air filtering south, snow levels COULD dip all the way to sea level. But at the same time it appears we’ll likely be dry from late Monday through at least Wednesday next week. So I’m thinking sticking snow down to sea level is unlikely Monday through Wednesday. It’s a bit too warm still Monday morning, but then when it WILL be cold enough Tuesday/Wednesday we’ll probably dry out. Now later next week, we could see moisture return. Each model is different with timing so we’ll see what happens. Remember that it IS possible to get snow or freezing rain as we head into mid-November. In 2014 freezing rain made it all the way into the central part of the metro area on the 13th!

That’s it for now. Our forecast looks like this…with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal Monday-Thursday next week. Stay Tuned!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Shame to see a dry pattern appearing on the horizon once again in the mid to long range. I guess the 2-3 weeks of active weather will have been nice while they lasted. Hopefully the next dry period won’t dig it’s heels like the last one did.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Shame to see a dry pattern appearing on the horizon once again in the mid to long range. I guess the 2-3 weeks of active weather will have been nice while they lasted. Hopefully the next dry period won’t dig it’s heels like the last one did.

I’m hoping we get a good, foggy, cold inversion out of it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen from his blog post:

That cool upper-level trough I mentioned earlier drops down along the West Coast and sits there Monday through Wednesday. 850mb temps bottom out around -4 to -6 C during that time; unusually cold for early November. Typically that’s around 1,500′ to 2,000′ snow levels. That’s with onshore flow. But during that time next week, we get a cool north or northeast wind as a cold arctic high pressure area will be sitting over SW Canada.
The low level airmass will also be unusually cold, including north of us. Here’s a Wednesday morning forecast temperature map; keep in mind anything under about -17 (C) on this map is 0 (F). Very unusual to have temps around zero degrees in early November just north of the U.S. border.

With that chilly air filtering south, snow levels COULD dip all the way to sea level. But at the same time it appears we’ll likely be dry from late Monday through at least Wednesday next week. So I’m thinking sticking snow down to sea level is unlikely Monday through Wednesday. It’s a bit too warm still Monday morning, but then when it WILL be cold enough Tuesday/Wednesday we’ll probably dry out. Now later next week, we could see moisture return. Each model is different with timing so we’ll see what happens. Remember that it IS possible to get snow or freezing rain as we head into mid-November. In 2014 freezing rain made it all the way into the central part of the metro area on the 13th!

That’s it for now. Our forecast looks like this…with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal Monday-Thursday next week. Stay Tuned!

Very interesting. Fun times ahead!