November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

The most miserable weather experience of my life was February 22-24, 2014.

February 22: 0.56" precip, Hi: 36F, Low: 31F (before precip arrived)
February 23: 0.87" precip, Hi: 34F, Low: 33F
February 24: 1.09" precip, Hi: 35F, Low: 33F

60 hours straight of snow mixed with rain, no accumulation, 2.52" of precipitation total. If I went two miles north there was 8" of snow on the ground, but there was next to nothing at my house. Bellingham was buried and to the south was in the upper 30s, low 40s but my house was the battleground.

We've had a couple of those here in Bellingham proper.  There was one year that I think we got *maybe* 2-3" at our house, but 2-3 miles to the north it jumped to 8-12"+ and another 2-3 miles north of that was legit blizzard conditions.  It might have actually been 2014 now that I think about it.

[fubario]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely enough sun the last few months.   But this type of pattern in which we get a bunch of rain at once and dry stretches in between with some sun is just a bonus in November.    Sometimes it continues like this all winter.   

Love this for you. 

[Dave]

Currently 1 degree F at Horse Ridge in central Oregon.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we hit freezing again this morning .

[Cold Snap]

Just missed out on the first freeze getting down to 33 this morning. I’m going to Arizona today and wont be back until Sunday night. So it’s definitely coming Sunday now.

[Doinko]

5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Day 5

Still a bit too far west but better than the 00z

[Doinko]

 

 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

 

GFS is probably overdoing the cold air of course but it shows a high of 30 on Wednesday in Portland with east winds. Then Thursday starts out in the 20s and warms up to around 33 by the very end of the day with a transition snow/ice event.

Here are the temps for Portland from the 06z.

Tuesday: 37/31

Wednesday: 30/26

Thursday: 33/26

 

Definitely overdoing it but still it's better than the 00z which is good

 

[Omegaraptor]

Lows this morning
Sunriver - 10

Lakeview - 10

Chester - 7

Burns - 6

Alturas - 5

Not bad for 11/3.

[Phishy Wx]

mainly cold and dry next week.  maybe a decent snow Sunday night into Monday

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z GFS was pretty nippy. At face value I would say highs in the lower 40s for PDX and down the valley. 

Edited November 3, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Lows this morning
Sunriver - 10

Lakeview - 10

Chester - 7

Burns - 6

Alturas - 5

Not bad for 11/3.

Not bad. Looks like the record at BNO is -2 from 1995. 

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 06z GFS was pretty nippy. At face value I would say lows in the lower 40s for PDX and down the valley. 

Maybe slightly colder near the gorge if we get any sort of transition event I think. Hoping that feature stays consistent

[Randyc321]

The HRRR is much drier than either the NAM or the WRF.  The two latter are much closer to each other and earlier in the runs look closer to the actual current radar.  Hoping the HRRR is the wrong one.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Maybe slightly colder near the gorge if we get any sort of transition event I think. Hoping that feature stays consistent

Yes, I'm just talking about the sunny days. Yeah colder if there are clouds and an overrunning type event. 

Just a note of caution, we have a pretty chilly airmass right now and PDX hit a low of 43 this morning. I get it, low clouds and higher DP's, but still... 

[Doinko]

 

 

[Doinko]

Better

 

 

[Doinko]

 

[MikeInEverett]

One notch east at a time

[Doinko]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

One notch east at a time

Yeah, 850s are colder too

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, 850s are colder too

Euros gonna cave happy the gold jackets yours!!

[RentonHill]

[Doinko]

 

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

 

Looks just like the ensemble mean from the last few runs

[Dave]

20 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

 

It's so cool that I'll be riding my snowmobile on the streets of Eugene in 4 days. I love when that happens in early Nov. Sweet!

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:

Looks just like the ensemble mean from the last few runs

I wouldn’t pay super close attention to the ensemble or main GFS surface temperatures. But yeah, the 12z looks slightly cooler from a upper level perspective. Chilly!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Record low at SLE on the 9th is 25 from 1936, it is essentially their lowest hanging fruit in terms of November record lows.

[Doinko]

Transition event is still here

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we actually get some dry air/off shore flow accompanying this trough than these lows look reasonable. Highs in the mid-30s with sunshine just wouldn't be in the cards though, record min maxes in the NW Oregon lowlands for the middle of next week are around 40. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Transition event is still here

 

This seems the most likely lowland snow scenario to me. If you look at historical precedent, there are some examples of transition events in November, this is still a little early, but there are several examples in the November 15-20 range, so it would not be overly freakish.

[Omegaraptor]

Wish I could head to the Cascades to chase those single digit lows on Wednesday morning.

[Doinko]

Canadian so far

 

[Snownerd3000]

12z GFS looks colder.  Nasty ice storm for PDX and SEA next Thursday with the transition event.

[Doinko]

Canadian reforming the block!

 

[Doinko]

Canadian is very cold, strong surface high to our east and no systems mixing out the cold air. More reasonable than the GFS with highs though.

 

 

[Snownerd3000]

Weird, no ext GEFS ran yesterday.  I know its clown range but curious to see what the Weeklies show today going into Dec.

[AlTahoe]

I know you guys are hoping for the GFS outcome but the Euro and Canadian show a classic huge Sierra snow storm setup. We would be looking at 36"+ at lake level and even Reno and Carson would approach their Nov 1985 totals of 18" 

GFS doesn't bring us much of anything.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Things become much easier when you stop looking at gfs snow maps past 72hrs. 

Comical it's so bad.

Edited November 3, 2022 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[TacomaWx]

Looks like we pulled off a 44/37 yesterday…got down to 37 this morning as well.

 Models are still looking good for some chilly weather. Pretty decent cold snap for this early in the season. Maybe we get lucky and see some snow out of this somehow there’s almost always surprises with cold snaps. 
  Besides 2014 (which was an El Niño so we can likely throw out that analog)  November cold worked out well in 2006, 2010 and 2017 for something else later on in the winter. 2010 and 2017 were both La Nina’s that worked out well later in the year. 

[ShawniganLake]

GFS and its ensemble is so much colder than the other models that it’s hard to take seriously. Could happen I guess.  The mean drops below -10C for SW BC, could produce some record cold if it verifies.