November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Seattle said:

That would be classic PDX. Is it the river location that consistently produces warm lows, apart from when the backdoor through the Gorge opens?

Yeah, I think that is part of it and the UHI it occupies. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

On top of that, it’s just overall climo. The easiest way to get lowland snow is during these transition events. Which sorta sucks because that makes it short-lived, but so it goes.

Also completely typical for the moisture to shut off just as the cold air arrives.

I dunno, feels kind of early for a typical transition overrunning event.  I’d like my odds better at this point in the season with a fresh supply of cold air. By the middle of next week things will be getting pretty stale and an approaching front from the west will likely mix things out pretty quickly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rooting for cold weather in our region is like rooting for whoever Alabama is playing. Rooting for cool weather in the summer is like hoping Middle Tennessee State can knock off the Tide. Rooting for cold in the winter, is like rooting for Georgia or LSU. They might beat Alabama, but it's not going to happen every year, and it is extremely unlikely both will win.

[Phishy Wx]

hoping for a sloppy 1/2"-1" overnight

[Deweydog]

Andrew is like a lukewarm bucket of ice water today!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good chance hood canal scores with this pattern, perfect marginal set up for heavy wet snow.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I dunno, feels kind of early for a typical transition overrunning event.  I’d like my odds better at this point in the season with a fresh supply of cold air. By the middle of next week things will be getting pretty stale and an approaching front from the west will likely mix things out pretty quickly. 

Yeah... as modeled on the ECMWF that event on Friday is not going to be an overrunning event for anywhere other than maybe the Hood Canal and that is doubtful.     There is just no cold air left even north of the border.  

[TT-SEA]

For the Seattle area... Sunday morning appears to be the best chance to see some wet snow mixed in.   After Sunday it will likely be dry for most of the week until Friday morning.  

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Andrew is like a lukewarm bucket of ice water today!

Cold coffee

[Snownerd3000]

14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

hoping for a sloppy 1/2"-1" overnight

I know you like em sloppy 

[OysterPrintout]

Doesn't take a lot of guts to predict a moderation of models and uneventful outcome for PDX in early January much less Nov 8th.

[Guest administrator]

Nice to see Oregon Tim and North Bend Andrew singing in unison. As there is no point to being excited for anything thing this winter, much less life itself, I will look into shutting down the forums and using the server to host a melodramatic podcast where we discuss ways to speed up all consuming entropy and what cocktails go best with SSRIs.

[Perturbed Member]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Why's the GEFS so weirdly cold? This doesn't seem likely at all, especially since the mean 850mb temps only drop to -6 or so

 

 

I think the low resolution used on those ensemble members makes it not resolve certain terrain details very well and it projects some very unrealistic CAA. I think the GFS OP itself is prone to overly aggressive CAA but the GEFS is even worse. 

Safe to say there is no way this verifies.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... as modeled on the ECMWF that event on Friday is not going to be an overrunning event for anywhere other than maybe the Hood Canal and that is doubtful.     There is just no cold air left even north of the border.  

So in other words a PNW winter classic. Moisture runs out as the dry blast arrives then moderates with no fun transition event.

[TT-SEA]

Light rain moving into western WA... the 36-hour rain event begins.     I am hoping to see some impressive rain totals.    I actually like these type of rain events.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So in other words a PNW winter classic. Moisture runs out as the dry blast arrives then moderates with no fun transition event.

Just my opinion.    Shawnigan expressed the same sentiment and that seems realistic to me.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Just my opinion.    Shawnigan expressed the same sentiment and that seems realistic to me.  

I’m still hoping for a surprise or two to materialize before it is all over. That said, the onset this weekend really appears to be slushy rain at best for those below 1000'.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Light rain moving into western WA... the 36-hour rain event begins.     I am hoping to see some impressive rain totals.    I actually like these type of rain events.

A little surprised to see some rain already starting here as well. I’m really looking forward to the next couple of days. AR events are fun. Should get some urban rivers going. 

[Perturbed Member]

It is the Euros turn to spit out nonsensical snow maps

13 inches of snow in a random spot south of PDX. All the phantom snow falls with temps ranging from 37F-41F.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This wasn't nearly as bad of an issue even 2 years ago was it? Both major models showing phantom snow? Ugh.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I do feel my point is being mischaracterized a bit, I am excited about next week, but just feel maybe we should keep the wishcasting train in the station until at least Thanksgiving. 

[Phishy Wx]

HRRR says 2" tonight.  we'll see, will probably be melted by 9am

 

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

AR Event

RED ALERT!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

AR Event

RED ALERT!

At face value that is an outstanding 7-day forecast for weather fan in early November, 

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m still hoping for a surprise or two to materialize before it is all over. That said, the onset this weekend really appears to be slushy rain at best for those below 1000'.

I think there will be some lingering snow showers down to about sea level later on Sunday night.  Maybe you’ll get lucky maybe you won’t. 

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At face value that is an outstanding 7-day forecast for weather fan in early November, 

I don't think anyone is complaining or will complain about how things are going. We got away from the miserable smoke and endless dry weather. It has been an active and interesting pattern, we are getting plenty of precip to help turn around the deficit and it will be very solidly cold next week. Regionwide lowland snow is pretty unlikely but no one should be shocked given the time of year. We have all winter still....

[BLI snowman]

21 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

A little surprised to see some rain already starting here as well. I’m really looking forward to the next couple of days. AR events are fun. Should get some urban rivers going. 

Really think tomorrow has a good chance to crack 3" on a lot of the gauges around the area. Timing of the heaviest rain and frontal passage are almost perfect.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

AR Event

RED ALERT!

Friday looks red AND wet!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Friday looks red AND wet!

RED WAVE?!

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At face value that is an outstanding 7-day forecast for weather fan in early November, 

Looks like fun.

Novembers here have all pretty much blended together for me since 2015. I guess 2019 stands out as much drier and a bit cold, but extremely dull.

Even though I love fall storms and rain it's often a fairly flavorless month here so my expectations are non-existent.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like fun.

Novembers here have all pretty much blended together for me since 2015. I guess 2019 stands out as much drier and a bit cold, but extremely dull.

Even though I love fall storms and rain it's often a fairly flavorless month here so my expectations are non-existent.

100%

Last November felt like rock bottom. Extremely mild and constant warm front drizzle/light rain. Very wet up here, much moreso than in the valley, but very mild boring, and not dynamic at all. 

Tuesday was pretty much the opposite of that, huge thunderstorm rocked and rolled through Salem around 4pm, and then by 10pm all precip we were getting up here had turned to snow. Now an AR on the way, cold Anatype front Sunday, and potentially some dry chilly days middle of next week. Sounds fantastic for a month I have absolutely no expectations from. 

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

RED WAVE?!

Tuesday looks chilly and BLUE.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was thinking last night, even a winter that was solidly chilly throughout like 07-08' would seem like a tremendous win at this point. 

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

RED WAVE?!

That's forecast for next Tuesday 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Tuesday looks chilly and BLUE.

538.com says JOE KENT has a 98% chance of winning next week. I can't wait to see the controversy that troll stirs up in Congress. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

538.com says JOE KENT has a 98% chance of winning next week. I can't wait to see the controversy that troll stirs up in Congress. 

Wonder what he thinks of that Judah character?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For the Seattle area... Sunday morning appears to be the best chance to see some wet snow mixed in.   After Sunday it will likely be dry for most of the week until Friday morning.  

After the dry 2 months we had a week of dry weather is almost impossible in November. Timothy!

[Sonny Summers]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

100%

Last November felt like rock bottom. Extremely mild and constant warm front drizzle/light rain. Very wet up here, much moreso than in the valley, but very mild boring, and not dynamic at all. 

Tuesday was pretty much the opposite of that, huge thunderstorm rocked and rolled through Salem around 4pm, and then by 10pm all precip we were getting up here had turned to snow. Now an AR on the way, cold Anatype front Sunday, and potentially some dry chilly days middle of next week. Sounds fantastic for a month I have absolutely no expectations from. 

November is normally a throwaway month. Anything decent is a true bonus. This is our appetizer before our main entree during December and January. Let's hope so anyway.

[FroYoBro]

22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Really think tomorrow has a good chance to crack 3" on a lot of the gauges around the area. Timing of the heaviest rain and frontal passage are almost perfect.

Let’s break that record!

[Deweydog]

First time I noticed the WRF now goes out to 240 hours. Solid.