Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Just now, Requiem said: Looks windee on Thursday Just a tad. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Just a tad. I wouldn't be surprised if PeeDeeEx records its strongest gust so far this winter. Does look like the kind of situation where lots of the metro gusts 35-50 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Requiem said: I wouldn't be surprised if PeeDeeEx records its strongest gust so far this winter. Does look like the kind of situation where lots of the metro gusts 35-50 Is it a situation where my area might see strong gusts just west of the west hills? I checked the WRF-GFS but I noticed it was pretty bad for my location on Tuesday, it seems like it was underestimating the east wind. I think we gusted to around 35-40 on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 As of 12 PM Noon, The Dalles had a surface pressure of 1042.4mb. The 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km forecast it to be at 1037mb. That is 5.4mb stronger than modeled. Yet again the models are mistakenly weakening both the gradient and dome of high pressure over the Columbia Basin too quickly. This continues to fuel very gusty east winds for those east of I-205. The TTD-DLS pressure gradient as well is running stronger than modeled. As of 12 PM/noon it was at -8.7mb forecast to be down to -6mb. Now onto Thursday. Today's 12z WRF-GFS continues to indicate the Gorge/gap gradient weakening now through about 7-9 PM before it ramps up again 10 PM this evening. The 4km Sounding over PDX for 4 PM Thursday is crazy. This run is another notch stronger with the east wind! In fact, from roughly 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Friday 50-55kts is shown just off the surface. At least 24 hours of very strong wind east of I-205. I would say go ahead and issue the Wind Advisory or maybe, just maybe we cannot entirely rule a warning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: As of 12 PM Noon, The Dalles had a surface pressure of 1042.4mb. The 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km forecast it to be at 1037mb. That is 5.4mb stronger than modeled. Yet again the models are mistakenly weakening both the gradient and dome of high pressure over the Columbia Basin too quickly. This continues to fuel very gusty east winds for those east of I-205. The TTD-DLS pressure gradient as well is running stronger than modeled. As of 12 PM/noon it was at -8.7mb forecast to be down to -6mb. Now onto Thursday. Today's 12z WRF-GFS continues to indicate the Gorge/gap gradient weakening now through about 7-9 PM before it ramps up again 10 PM this evening. The 4km Sounding over PDX for 4 PM Thursday is crazy. This run is another notch stronger with the east wind! In fact, from roughly 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Friday 50-55kts is shown just off the surface. At least 24 hours of very strong wind east of I-205. I would say go ahead and issue the Wind Advisory or maybe, just maybe we cannot entirely rule a warning. Thank you for this analysis! The WRF-GFS is showing wind gusts 40-45mph here tomorrow, in far eastern Washington county near the west hills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Is it a situation where my area might see strong gusts just west of the west hills? I checked the WRF-GFS but I noticed it was pretty bad for my location on Tuesday, it seems like it was underestimating the east wind. I think we gusted to around 35-40 on Tuesday. I don't really look at models for the specifics regarding wind gust details during these terrain based wind events because I feel like there are always surprises. Though general rule of thumb is that these downslope wind events do kick up the wind metro-wide. 3 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Poulsbo Snowman Posted November 16, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 39 minutes ago, Cloud said: Having the same shiit…. Went to dr yesterday and said I have bronchitis. Was told it to come into work since last Friday. There is a really nasty virus going around. Being sick sucks. Tested positive for COVID this morning. WIfe has it real bad. I have mostly sniffles, sore throat and body aches. I also feel exhausted. Gonna watch my bride closely. We're not as young as we used to be. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 still stuck in the 20s (29) at almost 2pm. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I can’t remember the last time I actually went to the doctor for cold or flu stuff. Maybe when I was under 10? Even when we had covid last January. Well I have been keeping my entire family awake the last 3 nights with uncontrollable coughing so I decided to do something about it. But good for you for never seeing a doctor! 5 1 1 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Well I have been keeping my entire family awake the last 3 nights with uncontrollable coughing so I decided to do something about it. But good for you for never seeing a doctor! Get well soon buddy... This is the worst part of this, I can't seem to keep my coughing under control as well which prompted me to go to the doctor. I hope they give you something really strong to suppress that cough. I ended up with an inhaler, steroids and continue taking the OTC stuff. The inhaler seems to do wonder and I'm quite confident the late season smoke around here played a role as well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Get well soon buddy... This is the worst part of this, I can't seem to keep my coughing under control as well which prompted me to go to the doctor. I hope they give you something really strong to suppress that cough. I ended up with an inhaler, steroids and continue taking the OTC stuff. The inhaler seems to do wonder and I'm quite confident the late season smoke around here played a role as well. Sounds exactly what I have, they prescribed an inhaler (never used one before) and cough pills. Great to hear the inhaler works great for you! Hoping to get a good nights sleep tonight! 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 I had to get an inhaler for my Bronchitis in 2020, even though my lungs are POWERFUL! 2 1 Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Low clouds and fog have been pretty persistent the past couple of days below about 300ft or so. Only mid 30s to near 40F in the fog right now. My house is up around 500ft and it’s clear blue skies and mid to upper 40s there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I had to get an inhaler for my Bronchitis in 2020, even though my lungs are POWERFUL! Wow all caps and exclamation point 2 2 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 It's been kind of fun seeing the start of inversion season really kick in stronger this week. Been getting a little cooler each day this week with the offshore winds. Highs at my place this work week: Monday: 55 Tuesday: 53 Today: 49 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, Cloud said: Get well soon buddy... This is the worst part of this, I can't seem to keep my coughing under control as well which prompted me to go to the doctor. I hope they give you something really strong to suppress that cough. I ended up with an inhaler, steroids and continue taking the OTC stuff. The inhaler seems to do wonder and I'm quite confident the late season smoke around here played a role as well. It’s really a pity they made it impossible to buy codeine-based cough syrup w/o a prescription in the USA. I’m old enough to remember when you could (you did have to ask the pharmacist for it, and s/he made you sign in a register that you had bought some). Nothing better for quelling a cough so you can get some well-needed sleep. 2 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 47 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: still stuck in the 20s (29) at almost 2pm. Augtober 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 45 minutes ago, MossMan said: Well I have been keeping my entire family awake the last 3 nights with uncontrollable coughing so I decided to do something about it. But good for you for never seeing a doctor! Just making conversation. I’ve been to the doctor for other things. Guess I’ve gotten lucky it hasn’t been for a cough. 1 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 49 minutes ago, MossMan said: Well I have been keeping my entire family awake the last 3 nights with uncontrollable coughing so I decided to do something about it. But good for you for never seeing a doctor! One of my rules of thumb is that if something is keeping me up at night and interfering with my ability to get needed rest, and OTC medications are not helping, it is a sign that it is time to see a doctor. 6 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: One of my rules of thumb is that if something is keeping me up at night and interfering with my ability to get needed rest, and OTC medications are not helping, it is a sign that it is time to see a doctor. That's typically my rule of thumb too but more often than not I only end up at the doctor if it is bad enough to keep me out of work for 3 days, in which case I am required to bring a doctor's note when I come back to work. It's only happened once or twice in the past 20 years. Now that I am working from home, it will be more about what you described than getting a note for work. As it is, I'm trying to decide if I really need to mess with FMLA for my wife's surgery. I'm going to go ahead and get the paperwork done, but I'm not seeing a scenario where I will actually need it. I have a work laptop, so I can sit on the couch 10 feet from our bedroom and take care of her without much in the way of work interruption. 2 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Wind advisory! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, Requiem said: Wow all caps and exclamation point I feel like that poster is either 13 or 79. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Augtober Fogvember 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Looks like we got down to 24F. Very nice night. And let's just say the hospital and I are very well-acquainted. I sleep on my side/down position otherwise I choke on my tongue and that has actually helped me not have as many lung issues. 3 4 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Augtober November (starting early next week). 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like we got down to 24F. Very night night. And let's just say the hospital and I are very well-acquainted. I hope you're doing better now if anything bad happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: I hope you're doing better now if anything bad happened I'm home mostly but I have an appointment tomorrow morning to check my implant on my brain for epilepsy. I had 2 brain surgeries for it a few years ago and I always have to monitor the implant. I'll have to have surgery in another couple years to replace the battery. 6 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Requiem said: I don't really look at models for the specifics regarding wind gust details during these terrain based wind events because I feel like there are always surprises. Though general rule of thumb is that these downslope wind events do kick up the wind metro-wide. I've found that when CAA is involved (which will be the caser this time) along with tightening gradients it makes for a wider wind distribution. 3 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 NWS has upped forecast wind gusts to 43mph here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: I'm home mostly but I have an appointment tomorrow morning to check my implant on my brain for epilepsy. I had 2 brain surgeries for it a few years ago and I always have to monitor the implant. I'll have to have surgery in another couple years to replace the battery. I have all sorts of weird allergies but I’m thankful that they are for the most part manageable with dietary restrictions, allergen avoidance, and OTC medications. I’ve had “natural living” types try to guilt trip me over the latter, to which I respond by querying them if they’ve ever had symptoms as nasty as I seek relief from. Typically the response is one of disbelief. At which point I politely inform them that their opinions on the matter are irrelevant and will be disregarded. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: NWS has upped forecast wind gusts to 43mph here I would have gone with 42-44 but whatevs… 2 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Looks like 49/25 here today. It's quite remarkable that the first half of this month ended up colder than any entire November I've recorded since 1993. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I would have gone with 42-44 but whatevs… I was going to say....talk about precision! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I was going to say....talk about precision! That reminds me of the old survey bench mark I once saw in Fort Union, NM. It dated to the 1860’s, yet confidently proclaimed its altitude above sea level to the nearest 1/100th of a foot. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I was going to say....talk about precision! Not sure why the NWS doesn't just give a 10mph range or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: That reminds me of the old survey bench mark I once saw in Fort Union, NM. It dated to the 1860’s, yet confidently proclaimed its altitude above sea level to the nearest 1/100th of a foot. The guy was either excessive compulsive or had a very odd sense of humor I'm thinking. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: November (starting early next week). Looks like the GFS flipped good (toward the Euro) 2 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I was going to say....talk about precision! Most likely the automated forecast instead of the human produced zone forecast product. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: Looks like the GFS flipped good (toward the Euro) And starting to come in line with what the ensembles have been saying for several days now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Low level cold air strengthening As the Columbia Basin cold pool has become well established and dome of high pressure has strengthened this has pulled increasingly cold low level air through the Gorge into PDX metro especially east of I-205 over the past 48 hours. Here are the observations at 3 PM. My location near west Gresham Today: 40.5F, -24hrs 45.5F, -48hrs 46.8F You can see as the east wind has ramped up the cold air advection has become rather impressive shaving 5 degrees off my temperature today. Similar trends are noted at Troutdale, Corbett, and Crown Point as well. Troutdale: 42F, -24hrs 48F, -48hrs 49F Corbett: 36F, -24hrs 42F, -48hrs 44F Crown Point: 37F, -24hrs 44F, -48hrs 46F This is sure making it feel like Winter east of I-205 and near/in the western Gorge! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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