November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Requiem said:

Looks windee on Thursday 

Just a tad.

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Just a tad.

I wouldn't be surprised if PeeDeeEx records its strongest gust so far this winter. Does look like the kind of situation where lots of the metro gusts 35-50

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I wouldn't be surprised if PeeDeeEx records its strongest gust so far this winter. Does look like the kind of situation where lots of the metro gusts 35-50

Is it a situation where my area might see strong gusts just west of the west hills? I checked the WRF-GFS but I noticed it was pretty bad for my location on Tuesday, it seems like it was underestimating the east wind. I think we gusted to around 35-40 on Tuesday.

[Gradient Keeper]

As of 12 PM Noon, The Dalles had a surface pressure of 1042.4mb. The 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km forecast it to be at 1037mb. That is 5.4mb stronger than modeled. Yet again the models are mistakenly weakening both the gradient and dome of high pressure over the Columbia Basin too quickly. This continues to fuel very gusty east winds for those east of I-205. The TTD-DLS pressure gradient as well is running stronger than modeled. As of 12 PM/noon it was at -8.7mb forecast to be down to -6mb. Now onto Thursday. Today's 12z WRF-GFS continues to indicate the Gorge/gap gradient weakening now through about 7-9 PM before it ramps up again 10 PM this evening.

 

The 4km Sounding over PDX for 4 PM Thursday is crazy. This run is another notch stronger with the east wind! In fact, from roughly 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Friday 50-55kts is shown just off the surface. At least 24 hours of very strong wind east of I-205. I would say go ahead and issue the Wind Advisory or maybe, just maybe we cannot entirely rule a warning.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

As of 12 PM Noon, The Dalles had a surface pressure of 1042.4mb. The 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km forecast it to be at 1037mb. That is 5.4mb stronger than modeled. Yet again the models are mistakenly weakening both the gradient and dome of high pressure over the Columbia Basin too quickly. This continues to fuel very gusty east winds for those east of I-205. The TTD-DLS pressure gradient as well is running stronger than modeled. As of 12 PM/noon it was at -8.7mb forecast to be down to -6mb. Now onto Thursday. Today's 12z WRF-GFS continues to indicate the Gorge/gap gradient weakening now through about 7-9 PM before it ramps up again 10 PM this evening.

 

The 4km Sounding over PDX for 4 PM Thursday is crazy. This run is another notch stronger with the east wind! In fact, from roughly 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Friday 50-55kts is shown just off the surface. At least 24 hours of very strong wind east of I-205. I would say go ahead and issue the Wind Advisory or maybe, just maybe we cannot entirely rule a warning.

Thank you for this analysis!

The WRF-GFS is showing wind gusts 40-45mph here tomorrow, in far eastern Washington county near the west hills.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Is it a situation where my area might see strong gusts just west of the west hills? I checked the WRF-GFS but I noticed it was pretty bad for my location on Tuesday, it seems like it was underestimating the east wind. I think we gusted to around 35-40 on Tuesday.

I don't really look at models for the specifics regarding wind gust details during these terrain based wind events because I feel like there are always surprises. Though general rule of thumb is that these downslope wind events do kick up the wind metro-wide.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

39 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Having the same shiit…. Went to dr yesterday and said I have bronchitis. Was told it to come into work since last Friday. There is a really nasty virus going around.

Being sick sucks.  Tested positive for COVID this morning.  WIfe has it real bad.  I have mostly sniffles, sore throat and body aches.  I also feel exhausted.  Gonna watch my bride closely.  We're not as young as we used to be.

[Phishy Wx]

still stuck in the 20s (29) at almost 2pm.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can’t remember the last time I actually went to the doctor for cold or flu stuff. Maybe when I was under 10? Even when we had covid last January.

Well I have been keeping my entire family awake the last 3 nights with uncontrollable coughing so I decided to do something about it. But good for you for never seeing a doctor!  

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I have been keeping my entire family awake the last 3 nights with uncontrollable coughing so I decided to do something about it. But good for you for never seeing a doctor!  

Get well soon buddy... 

This is the worst part of this, I can't seem to keep my coughing under control as well which prompted me to go to the doctor. I hope they give you something really strong to suppress that cough. I ended up with an inhaler, steroids and continue taking the OTC stuff. 

The inhaler seems to do wonder and I'm quite confident the late season smoke around here played a role as well. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Get well soon buddy... 

This is the worst part of this, I can't seem to keep my coughing under control as well which prompted me to go to the doctor. I hope they give you something really strong to suppress that cough. I ended up with an inhaler, steroids and continue taking the OTC stuff. 

The inhaler seems to do wonder and I'm quite confident the late season smoke around here played a role as well. 

Sounds exactly what I have, they prescribed an inhaler (never used one before) and cough pills. Great to hear the inhaler works great for you! Hoping to get a good nights sleep tonight! 

[Iceresistance]

I had to get an inhaler for my Bronchitis in 2020, even though my lungs are POWERFUL!

[ShawniganLake]

Low clouds and fog have been pretty persistent the past couple of days below about 300ft or so.  Only mid 30s to near 40F in the fog right now.  My house is up around 500ft and it’s clear blue skies and mid to upper 40s there. 

[Requiem]

20 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I had to get an inhaler for my Bronchitis in 2020, even though my lungs are POWERFUL!

Wow all caps and exclamation point

[FroYoBro]

It's been kind of fun seeing the start of inversion season really kick in stronger this week. Been getting a little cooler each day this week with the offshore winds. 

Highs at my place this work week:

Monday: 55

Tuesday: 53

Today: 49

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Get well soon buddy... 

This is the worst part of this, I can't seem to keep my coughing under control as well which prompted me to go to the doctor. I hope they give you something really strong to suppress that cough. I ended up with an inhaler, steroids and continue taking the OTC stuff. 

The inhaler seems to do wonder and I'm quite confident the late season smoke around here played a role as well. 

It’s really a pity they made it impossible to buy codeine-based cough syrup w/o a prescription in the USA. I’m old enough to remember when you could (you did have to ask the pharmacist for it, and s/he made you sign in a register that you had bought some). Nothing better for quelling a cough so you can get some well-needed sleep.

[Cascadia_Wx]

47 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

still stuck in the 20s (29) at almost 2pm.

Augtober 

[Cascadia_Wx]

45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I have been keeping my entire family awake the last 3 nights with uncontrollable coughing so I decided to do something about it. But good for you for never seeing a doctor!  

Just making conversation. I’ve been to the doctor for other things. Guess I’ve gotten lucky it hasn’t been for a cough.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

49 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I have been keeping my entire family awake the last 3 nights with uncontrollable coughing so I decided to do something about it. But good for you for never seeing a doctor!  

One of my rules of thumb is that if something is keeping me up at night and interfering with my ability to get needed rest, and OTC medications are not helping, it is a sign that it is time to see a doctor.

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

One of my rules of thumb is that if something is keeping me up at night and interfering with my ability to get needed rest, and OTC medications are not helping, it is a sign that it is time to see a doctor.

That's typically my rule of thumb too but more often than not I only end up at the doctor if it is bad enough to keep me out of work for 3 days, in which case I am required to bring a doctor's note when I come back to work.  It's only happened once or twice in the past 20 years.

 

Now that I am working from home, it will be more about what you described than getting a note for work.  As it is, I'm trying to decide if I really need to mess with FMLA for my wife's surgery.  I'm going to go ahead and get the paperwork done, but I'm not seeing a scenario where I will actually need it.  I have a work laptop, so I can sit on the couch 10 feet from our bedroom and take care of her without much in the way of work interruption.

[Doinko]

Wind advisory!

[Phishy Wx]

30 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Wow all caps and exclamation point

I feel like that poster is either 13 or 79. lol

[Phishy Wx]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Augtober 

Fogvember

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 24F. Very nice night.

And let's just say the hospital and I are very well-acquainted.

I sleep on my side/down position otherwise I choke on my tongue and that has actually helped me not have as many lung issues.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

30 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Augtober 

November (starting early next week).

 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we got down to 24F. Very night night.

And let's just say the hospital and I are very well-acquainted.

I hope you're doing better now if anything bad happened

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Doinko said:

I hope you're doing better now if anything bad happened

I'm home mostly but I have an appointment tomorrow morning to check my implant on my brain for epilepsy. I had 2 brain surgeries for it a few years ago and I always have to monitor the implant. I'll have to have surgery in another couple years to replace the battery.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Requiem said:

I don't really look at models for the specifics regarding wind gust details during these terrain based wind events because I feel like there are always surprises. Though general rule of thumb is that these downslope wind events do kick up the wind metro-wide.

I've found that when CAA is involved (which will be the caser this time) along with tightening gradients it makes for a wider wind distribution.

[Doinko]

NWS has upped forecast wind gusts to 43mph here

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm home mostly but I have an appointment tomorrow morning to check my implant on my brain for epilepsy. I had 2 brain surgeries for it a few years ago and I always have to monitor the implant. I'll have to have surgery in another couple years to replace the battery.

I have all sorts of weird allergies but I’m thankful that they are for the most part manageable with dietary restrictions, allergen avoidance, and OTC medications. I’ve had “natural living” types try to guilt trip me over the latter, to which I respond by querying them if they’ve ever had symptoms as nasty as I seek relief from. Typically the response is one of disbelief. At which point I politely inform them that their opinions on the matter are irrelevant and will be disregarded.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

NWS has upped forecast wind gusts to 43mph here

I would have gone with 42-44 but whatevs…

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 49/25 here today.  It's quite remarkable that the first half of this month ended up colder than any entire November I've recorded since 1993.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I would have gone with 42-44 but whatevs…

I was going to say....talk about precision!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I was going to say....talk about precision!

That reminds me of the old survey bench mark I once saw in Fort Union, NM. It dated to the 1860’s, yet confidently proclaimed its altitude above sea level to the nearest 1/100th of a foot.

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was going to say....talk about precision!

Not sure why the NWS doesn't just give a 10mph range or something like that

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That reminds me of the old survey bench mark I once saw in Fort Union, NM. It dated to the 1860’s, yet confidently proclaimed its altitude above sea level to the nearest 1/100th of a foot.

The guy was either excessive compulsive or had a very odd sense of humor I'm thinking.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

32 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

November (starting early next week).

 

Looks like the GFS flipped good (toward the Euro)

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was going to say....talk about precision!

Most likely the automated forecast instead of the human produced zone forecast product.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like the GFS flipped good (toward the Euro)

And starting to come in line with what the ensembles have been saying for several days now.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Low level cold air strengthening
 

As the Columbia Basin cold pool has become well established and dome of high pressure has strengthened this has pulled increasingly cold low level air through the Gorge into PDX metro especially east of I-205 over the past 48 hours.

Here are the observations at 3 PM.
 

My location near west Gresham

Today: 40.5F, -24hrs 45.5F, -48hrs 46.8F
 

You can see as the east wind has ramped up the cold air advection has become rather impressive shaving 5 degrees off my temperature today.
 

Similar trends are noted at Troutdale, Corbett, and Crown Point as well.

Troutdale: 42F, -24hrs 48F, -48hrs 49F

Corbett: 36F, -24hrs 42F, -48hrs 44F

Crown Point: 37F, -24hrs 44F, -48hrs 46F
 

This is sure making it feel like Winter east of I-205 and near/in the western Gorge!