November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Phishy Wx]

I dig some cold air too until it's wasted on dryness 

[Meatyorologist]

Down to 37F here

[Terreboner]

My brother and I used to pour water in the middle of our residential road whenever it got cold.

We stopped at a young age, because, you know, felonies and all.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I dig some cold air too until it's wasted on dryness 

Its because of the dryness.   

[Cloud]

Pretty impressive numbers to date... featuring just 1 (barely) above normal departures.  Even colder at BFI . One of these stations will get into the 20s sometimes this weekend.. 

[Phishy Wx]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I didn't release an "official" weinter forecast this year, but if I had it would have 2013-14, 2000-01, and 1962-63 as primary analogs.

wow those are some crappy winters snow wise in these parts

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its because of the dryness.   

loud sigh

[The Blob]

Very windy driving into work.

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

My brother and I used to pour water in the middle of our residential road whenever it got cold.

We stopped at a young age, because, you know, felonies and all.

Parking lots for me.

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

wow those are some crappy winters snow wise in these parts

Eh, I think trying to predict snowfall at any given location with analogs is pointless. Just useful for largescale pattern tendencies, imo.

[Doinko]

30 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I didn't release an "official" weinter forecast this year, but if I had it would have 2013-14, 2000-01, and 1962-63 as primary analogs.

2013/14 and 1962/1963 had some big arctic outbreaks

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

loud sigh

He's not wrong

Just look at the forecast for next week with cloud cover

[Gradient Keeper]

Pressure Gradients - UPDATE

Easterly gradients continue to be moderately strong with only slight weakening occurring the past 6-8 hours as the dome of high pressure over the Columbia Basin weakened from 1044mb down to 1038.6mb currently. The gradients should re-strengthen further tonight through Friday morning. It seems rather probable the PDX/TTD-DLS gradient exceeds -10mb before this east wind event/storm is over.
 

6 PM

[Gorge/Gap Gradients]
PDX-DLS: -8.2mb
TTD-DLS: -8.2mb

[Cross Cascade Gradients]
PDX-YKM: -8.8mb
PDX-MWH: -9.2mb
PDX-GEG: -8.3mb
OTH-GEG: -11.0mb

*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = Troutdale, YKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, GEG = Spokane, OTH = North Bend

A -Negative value denotes easterly/northerly flow
A +Positive value denotes westerly/onshore flow

[Doinko]

PDX already at 39 at 6pm. I wonder how cold they'll get before the wind picks up.

[Iceresistance]

4 hours ago, Requiem said:

Wow all caps and exclamation point

Well, even my Urgent Care Doctor confirmed that they really are powerful!

[Doinko]

HIO is down to 34

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Wow PDX is down to 34

I would say this is pretty much a modified low level arctic blast occurring with the continued east wind and cold air advection.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I would say this is pretty much a modified low level arctic blast occurring with the continued east wind and cold air advection.

I accidentally put PDX, I meant HIO. Hillsboro hit 23 this morning and they were 37 at this time yesterday. Maybe even colder tonight if the wind holds off?

[Doinko]

Troutdale is down to 39 even with east winds gusting to 30mph

[joelgombiner]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 49/25 here today.  It's quite remarkable that the first half of this month ended up colder than any entire November I've recorded since 1993.

It's been downright cold! 

[Gradient Keeper]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Troutdale is down to 39 even with east winds gusting to 30mph

36.3 here with gusty east wind. Not raging with those huge roaring gusts like earlier, but it will be soon enough.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 PM

[Gorge/Gap Gradients]

PDX-DLS: -8.8mb

TTD-DLS: -8.6mb

[Cross Cascade Gradients]

PDX-YKM: -9.6mb

PDX-MWH: -9.6mb

PDX-GEG: -8.6mb

OTH-GEG: -11.1mb

[The Cats Meow]

This has been an epic run of clear cold nights and beautiful winter sunshiney days.

It's one I will always remember.

[joelgombiner]

Who's in their car driving to Buffalo right now? 

 

[The Blob]

25 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Troutdale is down to 39 even with east winds gusting to 30mph

Yes we are.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs)

[MossMan]

47/30 on the day. Currently 32. 

[Phishy Wx]

backdoor arctic front looks like bring in some bonus snow in the next couple hours.  wasn't really expecting it

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

backdoor arctic front looks like bring in some bonus snow in the next couple hours.  wasn't really expecting it

 

 

That seems further west/southwest than modeled or what was expected. Interesting

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 2 (Past 4 runs)

This is one of the most ridiculous ridge and troughs I've ever seen. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That seems further west/southwest than modeled or what was expected. Interesting

yeah a WWA up for western MT.  nothing in Idaho and E WA.  returns in the band look just as strong as the MT returns.  will be interesting to see what plays out. currently 28 with a DP of 25

[Phishy Wx]

does look like the band is weakening now.  who knows, news at 6 said just flurries

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

backdoor arctic front looks like bring in some bonus snow in the next couple hours.  wasn't really expecting it

 

 

Quite a bit of snow falling in S.E. BC. Cranbrook is expecting 2-4”. 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Quite a bit of snow falling in S.E. BC. Cranbrook is expecting 2-4”. 

hopefully an over performance

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7