November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good thing about living on a hill and the soil I have is that it never gets that muddy here...Despite the endless rain. 

[Phil]

PDO is really spiking. Almost back to where it was in Spring.

 

Daily values are over +2 now.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/5DE6F974-96F1-4E8E-8D43-2EAFAD87084B_zpsx3qgtxmj.jpg

[Deweydog]

PDO is really spiking. Almost back to where it was in Spring.

 

Daily values are over +2 now.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/5DE6F974-96F1-4E8E-8D43-2EAFAD87084B_zpsx3qgtxmj.jpg

 

That was a memorable 10 day run in late September, though.

 

#neverforget

[Phil]

That was a memorable 10 day run in late September, though.

 

#neverforget

All good signs for winter, though. Need that +PNA/flat ridge as strong as possible now to score in January.

 

[Deweydog]

All good signs for winter, though. Need that +PNA/flat ridge as strong as possible now to score in January.

 

 

Flatiron will tell you a rising PDO going into winter is muy no bueno.  

[Phil]

Oh, and the PDO spike in October couldn't possibly have resulted from a +PNA, Aleutian Low pattern. The old PNA formula never lies. Must've just been a fluke.

[Phil]

Flatiron will tell you a rising PDO going into winter is muy no bueno.

[snow_wizard]

Does warmer water increase the chance of a ridge taking hold?

Huge debate on that. I think a warm pool over the GOA might increase the chances for a ridge in the spot we want it, but I doubt the influence is that great.

[snow_wizard]

PDO is really spiking. Almost back to where it was in Spring.

 

Daily values are over +2 now.

 

It's a totally different situation though. Very cold water where the blob used to be. There are many different incarnations that can equate to + PDO.

 

BTW is that graphic available for free?

[snow_wizard]

The 18z continues a progressively more negative PNA theme. Certainly better than the Euro as of late, but even that model shows improvement.

[Phil]

It's a totally different situation though. Very cold water where the blob used to be. There are many different incarnations that can equate to + PDO.

 

BTW is that graphic available for free?

This is a classic example of boreal winter re-emergence. Last winter's +PDO/cold pool is manifesting again at the surface thanks to the subsurface profile.

 

Plenty of literature on this. Basically, the extratropical upper ocean mixing layer(s) deepens during the cold season as the upper oceans become more kinetically disturbed, hence the subsurface profile reflects more coherently at the sea surface.

 

Note the change here over the last 7 days:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[snow_wizard]

This is a classic example of boreal winter re-emergence. Last winter's +PDO/cold pool is manifesting again at the surface thanks to the subsurface profile.

 

Plenty of literature on this. Basically, the extratropical upper ocean mixing layer(s) deepens during the cold season as the upper oceans become more kinetically disturbed, hence the subsurface profile reflects more coherently at the sea surface.

 

Note the change here over the last 7 days:

 

We'll see. I still think the PDO is overrated. Earlier this century we had some tanked PDO winters that sucked balls. By the same token we have had cold ones that were +.

[Jesse]

Absolutely insane that your yard would get wet and muddy in November. I'm guessing this is the first time it's ever happened?

He lives in an alternate universe where we are expected to have Fresno summers and Kalispell winters with very little rain throughout all seasons.

[MossMan]

He lives in an alternate universe where we are expected to have Fresno summers and Kalispell winters with very little rain throughout all seasons.

All I am saying is that the ground has reached the saturation point much earlier this year. I thought you were too high and mighty to even respond to my stupid Posts? Time for another timeout for ya?

[Jesse]

All I am saying is that the ground has reached the saturation point much earlier this year. I thought you were too high and mighty to even respond to my stupid Posts? Time for another timeout for ya?

One of the wettest Octobers on record probably played a role. November is normally very wet here, and probably pretty muddy. That's just our climate. It is what it is.

[Jesse]

There definitely seems to be a cooling trend in the models in the mid-long range. Nice to see.

[Phil]

There definitely seems to be a cooling trend in the models in the mid-long range. Nice to see.

Flat Aleutian ridging = conduit to +EPO/westerly flow and a complete lack of a SE ridge. Need something more than this.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/E0E8B5E7-870A-4D8D-8558-2EFE605BD18D_zpskvqgdxxx.gif

[FroYoBro]

Flat Aleutian ridging = conduit to +EPO/westerly flow and a complete lack of a SE ridge. Need something more than this.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/E0E8B5E7-870A-4D8D-8558-2EFE605BD18D_zpskvqgdxxx.gif

 

You seem to think we are going for a home run every week or something. Just because we aren't getting arctic air doesn't mean that people aren't going to enjoy a cool down of some sort. 

[Jesse]

Flat Aleutian ridging = conduit to +EPO/westerly flow and a complete lack of a SE ridge. Need something more than this.

 

I'm not necessarily looking for an arctic blast. Some near to slightly cooler than average weather with mountain snow would be great right now.

[BLI snowman]

You seem to think we are going for a home run every week or something. Just because we aren't getting arctic air doesn't mean that people aren't going to enjoy a cool down of some sort.

Yeah, a cool down to at least climo is about all any of us are expecting for the foreseeable future. Getting the mountain snowpack going is also a plus.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm not necessarily looking for an arctic blast. Some near to slightly cooler than average weather with mountain snow would be great right now.

Exactly we just want mountain snow and normal late fall weather. Nothing earth shattering.

[Front Ranger]

We'll see. I still think the PDO is overrated. Earlier this century we had some tanked PDO winters that sucked balls. By the same token we have had cold ones that were +.

 

It's always easier to stay where you've been than to change.

 

The same applies to the PDO. It's dropped significantly this year, which shows things have been slowly changing, but until a true long-lasting -PNA dominated pattern kicks in, it's not going to go negative. 

 

If that had already happened and the PDO was more negative, I'd feel better about a -PNA dominated winter. That being said, it is a transitional period, following a major +ENSO/+PDO regime. These things usually take a little time, especially with a rather weak -ENSO event. It certainly could flip at some point over the next couple months.

[westcoastexpat]

Talk about a reversal on the 18Z GFS:

 

 

Hour 0:

 

 

 

Hour 384:

 

[snow_wizard]

Talk about a reversal on the 18Z GFS:

That west based -NAO is really good for us. The same feature that showed up on the 12z ECMWF ensemble.

[Deweydog]

So close to shaking that sub-56 monkey off our backs today.  

[Bryant]

Talk about a reversal on the 18Z GFS:

 

 

Hour 0:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016111318/000/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Hour 384:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016111318/384/500h_anom.na.png

Not even sure why you'd reference hour 384, ever? Showing that time frame doesn't give any credence to a reversal

[snow_wizard]

Decent looking suppressed jet by day 10 on the 0z GFS. Things are looking up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Decent looking suppressed jet by day 10 on the 0z GFS. Things are looking up.

 

Decent looking suppressed jet by day 10 on the 0z GFS. Things are looking up.

 

Decent looking suppressed jet by day 10 on the 0z GFS. Things are looking up.

 

Seasonal vanilla. Better than what we've had though. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

MY WEATHER STATION IS NOW ONLINE! YAH! check it out.

 

Click here 

 

 

SaveSave

[TT-SEA]

MY WEATHER STATION IS NOT ONLINE! YAH! check it out.

 

Click here 

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-11-13 at 9.54.59 PM.png

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You mean 'now' online right?

 

Looks awesome.    Pretty warm there too.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

You mean 'now' online right?

 

Looks awesome.    Pretty warm there too.   

LOL... yes... sorry I was just a little excited to finally get it up... and yes, that's what she said.    and a warm night here, but normal for the swamp.

[Phil]

MY WEATHER STATION IS NOW ONLINE! YAH! check it out.

 

Click here

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-11-13 at 9.54.59 PM.png

Save

Save

Nice! Makes two of us now.

 

What station do you have?

[Phil]

This super-moon is so super I think it's inhibiting radiational cooling. Apparently the closest approach since 1948.

[snow_wizard]

Seasonal vanilla. Better than what we've had though.

A tad better than that I think. Solid -PNA.

[snow_wizard]

MY WEATHER STATION IS NOW ONLINE! YAH! check it out.

 

Click here 

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-11-13 at 9.54.59 PM.png

Save[/size]

Save[/size]

 

Is it really that warm there? It's only 49 here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Save[/size]

 

Is it really that warm there? It's only 49 here.

Yes, and if you look at other stations around the area it will verify... it is not unusual here with this type of setup.

[HighlandExperience]

Yes, and if you look at other stations around the area it will verify... it is not unusual here with this type of setup.

I'm pretty sure an alien base is under Bonney Lake

[Bryant]

MY WEATHER STATION IS NOW ONLINE! YAH! check it out.

 

Click here

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-11-13 at 9.54.59 PM.png

Save

Save

Nice! What kind of weather station did you get?

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm pretty sure an alien base is under Bonney Lake

Nah, just swamp gas.

[mjb]

Nah, just swamp gas.[/quote

 

 

I thought the "swamp" was down in the valley at Puyallup Jon's ?