January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am at 34 but I have a dew point of 2... impressive

[Laura]

26 degrees in oregon city.. how low will we goooo?

[TT-SEA]

Its all going to be just fine...

 

 

The Earth is passing through an ice age known as the quaternary glaciation, and is presently in the Holocene interglacial period. This period would normally be expected to end in about 25,000 years.   

 

However, the increased rate of carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere by humans may delay the onset of the next glacial period until at least 50,000–130,000 years from now.

 

On the other hand, a global warming period of finite duration (based on the assumption that fossil fuel use will cease by the year 2200) will probably only impact the glacial period for about 5,000 years. Thus, a brief period of global warming induced through a few centuries worth of greenhouse gas emission would only have a limited impact in the long term.

[Deweydog]

Its all going to be just fine...

 

 

The Earth is passing through an ice age known as the quaternary glaciation, and is presently in the Holocene interglacial period. This period would normally be expected to end in about 25,000 years.

 

However, the increased rate of carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere by humans may delay the onset of the next glacial period until at least 50,000–130,000 years from now.

 

On the other hand, a global warming period of finite duration (based on the assumption that fossil fuel use will cease by the year 2200) will probably only impact the glacial period for about 5,000 years. Thus, a brief period of global warming induced through a few centuries worth of greenhouse gas emission would only have a limited impact in the long term.

Leonardo DiCaprio did not write this.

[FroYoBro]

Its all going to be just fine...

 

 

The Earth is passing through an ice age known as the quaternary glaciation, and is presently in the Holocene interglacial period. This period would normally be expected to end in about 25,000 years.   

 

However, the increased rate of carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere by humans may delay the onset of the next glacial period until at least 50,000–130,000 years from now.

 

On the other hand, a global warming period of finite duration (based on the assumption that fossil fuel use will cease by the year 2200) will probably only impact the glacial period for about 5,000 years. Thus, a brief period of global warming induced through a few centuries worth of greenhouse gas emission would only have a limited impact in the long term.

 

Yeah, but is it going to snow this Saturday at my location? 

[Jesse]

Its all going to be just fine...

 

 

The Earth is passing through an ice age known as the quaternary glaciation, and is presently in the Holocene interglacial period. This period would normally be expected to end in about 25,000 years.

 

However, the increased rate of carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere by humans may delay the onset of the next glacial period until at least 50,000–130,000 years from now.

 

On the other hand, a global warming period of finite duration (based on the assumption that fossil fuel use will cease by the year 2200) will probably only impact the glacial period for about 5,000 years. Thus, a brief period of global warming induced through a few centuries worth of greenhouse gas emission would only have a limited impact in the long term.

Does this mean it will snow?

[Dave]

Does this mean it will snow?

The ensembles for Argentina are off the charts.

[TT-SEA]

Does this mean it will snow?

 

 

Eventually yes!  

[crf450ish]

People talking about writing winter off already???? WTH? Weenie level 9000.......

[Bryant]

People talking about writing winter off already???? WTH? Weenie level 9000.......

What does solar have to say?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking like this could be a pretty good snow in my area. Stays offshore flow while the precip is ramped up real good. I believe it will remain snow over here well beyond what is modeled.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The system coming in this weekend is starting to look a lot like the one that hit on December 9th, only stronger, further offshore, and a little further south. This isn't terrible, could still phase in a way to give some areas a brief but heavy snowfall.

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_test_20161209.gif

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010500/gfs_z500_vort_namer_17.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Already -10 near republic. Impressive.

[FroYoBro]

The wind has really died here. Might get a decent low tomorrow morning out of this. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Another thing interesting, in 20 years living here i have never seen the snow turn to rain before the front passage. Hopefully a good dome of cold air will collect here.

[Goducks09]

One thing is certain: Cali is getting some much needed rain with this pattern.

[umadbro]

The low level flow doesn't really switch from easterly at all this weekend here. I really hope that isn't the case.

[Laura]

One thing is certain: Cali is getting some much needed rain with this pattern.

This makes me happy since I am going to yosemite in june =) more water for the waterfalls! 

[liquidsnow]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010500/144/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

 

WHERE THE FRIG IS ALL THE EXCITEMENT OVER THIS!?!?!?!?! EVEN THE SWAMP GETS IN ON IT!!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z GFS showing a Seattle area snowstorm and an emerging arctic blast from hour 138.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_24.png

[HighlandExperience]

[umadbro]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010500/144/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

 

WHERE THE FRIG IS ALL THE EXCITEMENT OVER THIS!?!?!?!?! EVEN THE SWAMP GETS IN ON IT!!!!

It'll end up being a Eugene event, because that's how it works these days.

[Jesse]

People talking about writing winter off already???? WTH? Weenie level 9000.......

I was going to say are you new here, but I think this is one of your first winters.

 

This happens every early to mid January.

[luminen]

well, the Vancouver area and most of the lower mainland has had continuous snow cover for about a month now. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Blizzard at hr 144

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS very snowy Olympia/Seattle northward. If the trough digs a bit more and we all score. That rhymed because I kick so much a**.

 

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010500/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Kayla]

Whelp, we better get that pattern reset going sooner rather than later...

[HighlandExperience]

Blizzard at hr 144

If that verified snowwiz would be happy. Wednesday is an eternity at this point though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Whelp, we better get that pattern reset going sooner rather than later...

I like the way you think. Yes

[FroYoBro]

Whelp, we better get that pattern reset going sooner rather than later...

You are moving. You are a traitor. 

[Deweydog]

Weird setup. Arctic outbreak for the coastal waters!

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS for the weekend

 

 

could be worse.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010500/gfs_asnow_nwus_19.png

[Phil]

My point is we still have a very anomalous blocking ridge hanging around a generally good vicinity. The window hasn't closed yet for some fun, so I don't understand rooting for it to go away in the hope that something better develops down the road.

Longitudinal problems mostly..the breakers have been too far west and flatter than ideal for a significant Arctic event.

[Kayla]

You are moving. You are a traitor. 

 

Your aviator is throwing me off and I'll still be here. Nothing like trying to move in a snowstorm!

[Kayla]

Weird setup. Arctic outbreak for the coastal waters!

 

It's going east.

[Deweydog]

It's going east.

Timmy???

[Phil]

Its all going to be just fine...

 

 

The Earth is passing through an ice age known as the quaternary glaciation, and is presently in the Holocene interglacial period. This period would normally be expected to end in about 25,000 years.

 

However, the increased rate of carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere by humans may delay the onset of the next glacial period until at least 50,000–130,000 years from now.

 

On the other hand, a global warming period of finite duration (based on the assumption that fossil fuel use will cease by the year 2200) will probably only impact the glacial period for about 5,000 years. Thus, a brief period of global warming induced through a few centuries worth of greenhouse gas emission would only have a limited impact in the long term.

Assuming the proposed mechanism for glacial inception is snowcover advance, which is most likely wrong.

 

The Obliquity/Precession harmonic most likely drives the ice age/interglacial cycle via modulation of the equator pole thermal gradient, which is constructively enhanced by the circulatory responses/thermal wind guides.

 

The fact we're trying to limit what could (potentially) soften the blow for humanity during the next ice age (CO^2), in multiple ways, is beyond ridiculous.

[Kayla]

Oh look, another blizzard for southern Oregon!

[Kayla]

Timmy???

 

®

[epiceast]

I was going to say are you new here, but I think this is one of your first winters.

 

This happens every early to mid January.

But for a good reason. Permanent Juneuary in most people's memory.