January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Amazing how perfect everything worked out to have zero snow in the lowlands of puget sound.

 

Well at least the Friday event is looking like a classic overrunning transition (knock on wood). Watch it split before it hits the coast and send the moisture north/south of us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

steady rain now

 

i'd rather have 52 and rain than this three week tease bullshit

Yeah there has been alot of arctic air invasions lately that have ended with no snow. Never used to be that way.

[Deweydog]

This is interesting...Basically what I am seeing here is an airmass generally supportive of 1000-1500' snow levels, but the EURO is saying there will still be low level cold trapped at the surface? Just my take on it.

I don't think it's as much about low level cold as it is about a slug of moderate/heavy precip and the fairly quick cold advection occurring after midnight.

[BLI snowman]

Euro looks way weaker with the midweek storm.

[Deweydog]

Wednesday's low is above 1000mb on the Euro.

[FroYoBro]

The deck and patio are a skating rink at this point. Still at freezing and the roads just seem slushy. 

[BLI snowman]

I don't think it's as much about low level cold as it is about a slug of moderate/heavy precip and the fairly quick cold advection occurring after midnight.

 

Temps will be a lot lower to start with then they generally would be in that cold an airmass, though. Residual cold pool would help a bit, as evidenced by the heavier totals closer to the gorge on the Euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ummmmmm

 

 

[Kayla]

Wednesday's low is above 1000mb on the Euro.

 

Makes landfall at 989mb compared to 992mb on last nights 00z. Track is also slightly further north giving the PDX area 2-3" with the Salem area being the big winners.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice! Sounds like the precip was able to overcome the dry air up there. Nothing in Vic, we're still under outflow winds but it's done nothing to cool it down. Snow prospects look pretty dismal this afternoon, but better up that way.

It snowed really hard for about 15mins a little before midnight. Currently cloudy and 33F.

[bainbridgekid]

Euro looks way weaker with the midweek storm.

Pretty crazy difference. About 10 mb weaker than the GFS and also significantly further North.

 

The Euro track and GFS strength sure would be nice. 

[Kayla]

Temps will be a lot lower to start with then they generally would be in that cold an airmass, though. Residual cold pool would help a bit, as evidenced by the heavier totals closer to the gorge on the Euro.

 

Yeah precip rates are not forecast to be all that impressive (0.2-0.3" in the 6 hour period) so I think having the near freezing surface temps is providing the greatest assist with very marginal upper air support.

[ShawniganLake]

Amazing how perfect everything worked out to have zero snow in the lowlands of puget sound.

Is it even snowing out your way?

[Phil]

Nothing to be mad about. I've had 2-3" of snow cover for over a week. It's been great! Enjoy the pouring rain you're currently getting though!

Boom lol.

[Deweydog]

Temps will be a lot lower to start with then they generally would be in that cold an airmass, though. Residual cold pool would help a bit, as evidenced by the heavier totals closer to the gorge on the Euro.

Definitely a complicated little setup. Would be an ironic surprise when localized areas get about 3x what they got yesterday. NWS certainly won't pick up on it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Is it even snowing out your way?

freezing rain

[Deweydog]

Ummmmmm

 

 

Good point.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty crazy difference. About 10 mb weaker than the GFS and also significantly further North.

 

The Euro track and GFS strength sure would be nice. 

 

At this point Tuesday morning looks like the best chance for the Seattle region to score. I think the Wednesday event will be suppressed too far either way. 

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday snow  per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[BLI snowman]

Definitely a complicated little setup. Would be an ironic surprise when localized areas get about 3x what they got yesterday. NWS certainly won't pick up on it.

 

0.9" would be pants-droppingly fun.

[Timmy Supercell]

Ummmmmm

 

 

 

omg there's gonna be 40" inches this January here. Not joking.

[Deweydog]

0.9" would be pants-droppingly fun.

Most people got SIGNIFICANTLY more than .3 inches.

[TT-SEA]

The snow on Tuesday around Seattle on the ECMWF is definitely questionable... 850mb temp is a -4C and the 925mb temp is around zero.

 

However the gradient is weak and the flow is generally from the NE.   

[bainbridgekid]

At this point Tuesday morning looks like the best chance for the Seattle region to score. I think the Wednesday event will be suppressed too far either way. 

Agreed.

 

I've been focused on Tuesday morning for a couple days now.

 

Looks like a decent shot at 1-2" of convergence fun areas with a bit of elevation 

[bainbridgekid]

Tuesday snow  per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

 

Thank you for posting that. Tuesday morning is definitely the time to watch for the Seattle area IMO.

 

I was thinking the Euro would likely be a bit snowier than the GFS since the low offshore was several mb stronger (~997mb on the Euro compared to ~1000mb on the GFS.

 

They disagree on the location, but both the GFS and NAM show pretty decent convergence Tuesday morning as well:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010812/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_41.png

[ShawniganLake]

freezing rain

Yuck. Not a good sign for my prospects today.

[TT-SEA]

Radar looks very active here now but almost nothing falling.   East wind is just roaring.

 

Saw a few rain drops... ice pellets... and even a some random snowflakes.   But overall its basically dry out there despite strong returns on the radar overhead.

 

34.8 with a dewpoint of 21.    Snow is still hard and ice on the sides of the roads is not melting at all.   

[Blizzard777]

Federal way temp down to 36 degrees....thanks evaporated cooling but a bit too late

 

Looks like I just need to break down and buy this

[luminen]

We all just need some of the frog magic. Just look at Eugene and especially Klamath Falls. 

[TT-SEA]

A little later than I was expecting... but it looks like we might transition to a more normal mild/wet pattern in a week.   Block is gone by then.   

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[Perturbed Member]

Credit when credit is due. Rod Hill got the ice storm right.

 

"SUNDAY:  Likely showers today will be a mix of rain and freezing rain with some areas warming above 32 degrees and other locations staying icy. "

[Timmy Supercell]

Credit when credit is due. Rod Hill got the ice storm right.

 

"SUNDAY:  Likely showers today will be a mix of rain and freezing rain with some areas warming above 32 degrees and other locations staying icy. "

 

For once he was actually sober.

[Perturbed Member]

Definitely a complicated little setup. Would be an ironic surprise when localized areas get about 3x what they got yesterday. NWS certainly won't pick up on it.

 

Wonder why no TV met or NWS wants to even mention the possibility of tonight into tomorrow?

[The Swamp]

A little later than I was expecting... but it looks like we might transition to a more normal mild/wet pattern in a week.   Block is gone by then.   

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

that"s more like it

[jsf343]

Credit when credit is due. Rod Hill got the ice storm right.

 

"SUNDAY: Likely showers today will be a mix of rain and freezing rain with some areas warming above 32 degrees and other locations staying icy. "

lol that's covering all the bases

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little later than I was expecting... but it looks like we might transition to a more normal mild/wet pattern in a week.   Block is gone by then.   

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

 

Our reset...

[MossMan]

Spent all morning outside taking down the Christmas lights and enjoying the last of the frozen and snow covered ground. I have really enjoyed the frozen and dry ground...no muddy dogs! Currently 35 with a DP of 20 so no melting or thawing yet but when the rain starts here soon it will be a gooey nightmare out there. Perhaps I will see some white stuff on Tuesday.

[MossMan]

HIgh Wind Warning now in effect for the EPSL area

[Deweydog]

Definitely hints of a hopped up Pacific jet and AK going into the ice box in the long range.

 

Is the reset too late? Time will tell, but if it is it will be Flatiron's fault. In that case, DO NOT take matters into your own hands. Let the law and the judicial process play out.

[Perturbed Member]

lol that's covering all the bases

 

eh, he said that some places would get above freezing today whereas most everyone else said the PDX metro would pretty much all be frozen today at least through noon.