PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Best March of my lifetime! 

It was a really good March down here, but we carried about 2 feet of snow depth over from February, so it was kind of cheating a little. The first week and a half was great for cold and snow, but we did not see any of the really big storms that dropped 10"+ like we saw in March 2018, 2017, and 2012. 

Thinking about it that March 2017-2020 run was pretty insane down here. 

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, smerfylicious said:

Finally the sun is peaking out so I can see how the mountains are doing and...well I find it hard to put into words how much I love living here.

Last pic you can see the clear snow line from last night's moisture...just needed to drop another 500 feet oh well.

Mt. Stickney:

Gunn Range:bonus Stickney, stupidly expensive gas and snowline:

Gas is now under $3/gal up here, but the mountains aren't quite as pretty at the moment.

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah but how much of that was fAkE cOlD?

 I spent the day in Hood River on the 3rd to experience the novelty of subfreezing sunshine during the day in March. Upper level airmass wasn't that different over there, but the deep snowcover really helped preserve the low level cold even with the March sun. Super fake stuff!

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Gas is now under $3/gal up here, but the mountains aren't quite as pretty at the moment.

Really? Damn I need to go to Skagit for gas

Edited December 9, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS surface and 850s. Definitely good agreement on the low level cold at this point. It’s probably way too bullish but I’m surprised to see the ensemble mean showing PDX with highs near freezing by later next week. 

Then as far as the upper level chart goes it appears there are quite a few members that want to get us pretty cold around the solstice. Operational appears to be somewhat of a warm outlier beyond days 5-6.

Jeez Louise, what a depressing run. What do we have to do to get some decent pineapple-y 50+°F rain around here?

[selkirks]

okay but also precip plz

there's a lot of room between the Pineapple Express and dry cold

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 I spent the day in Hood River on the 3rd to experience the novelty of subfreezing sunshine during the day in March. Upper level airmass wasn't that different over there, but the deep snowcover really helped preserve the low level cold even with the March sun. Super fake stuff!

So fake. So disappointing. Some members here would start weeping.

[Meatyorologist]

Cold air sinks. Cold airmasses literally tend towards inversions.

[Requiem]

35 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

No sure why everyone is so upset with me when I'm just being more realistic than them. Pretty decent chance when the cold air does arrive it will dump into the plains and midwest...

There's a way to be realistic without just being a downer. If I looked at your posts this afternoon without any knowledge of today's runs I'd have reckoned they were all endless split flow and 240-hour warm anomalies. 

[Snownerd3000]

16 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Gas is now under $3/gal up here, but the mountains aren't quite as pretty at the moment.

What!? still paying $4.65 in Woodinville.

[Skagit Weather]

14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Really? D**n I need to go to Skagit for gas

If you drove up here and back just for gas you might even just barely come out on top. It's super variable in the county though. Definitely some $4/gal stations around, but the further west you go, the cheaper it gets.

[Blizzard777]

39 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

Now, if we can get the Rocky Mountains elevation to “trend ” down in elevation we could take advantage of this cold air pattern a little easier.  

[Skagit Weather]

Models are looking impressively dry this month. I'm at 0.5" so far and will probably end up with less than 1" total of precipitation through the first 2/3 of the month. After that who knows what's going to happen, but unless a big AR makes a visit at the end of the month December will probably end up being below (if not significantly below) average.

[OysterPrintout]

46 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

No sure why everyone is so upset with me when I'm just being more realistic than them. Pretty decent chance when the cold air does arrive it will dump into the plains and midwest...

that role is already taken in this forum and we're not currently looking for new candidates

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

So fake. So disappointing. Some members here would start weeping.

I'm still scarred by it.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Looks like EPS might want to slide that Day 10 stuff east, then retro it at the end.

I noticed that at the end as well.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

If you drove up here and back just for gas you might even just barely come out on top. It's super variable in the county though. Definitely some $4/gal stations around, but the further west you go, the cheaper it gets.

Pays to be near those refineries!

[Skagit Weather]

This is a new graphic from NWS. As the models are hinting, we should rack up a ton more freezes. Seems like this year they haven't been using as much of the probabilistic forecast graphics they used in the last couple of years (which is a shame because I liked those), but I guess it's easier to understand?

[smerfylicious]

33 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Gas is now under $3/gal up here, but the mountains aren't quite as pretty at the moment.

I'm gonna need some proof of under $3. That'd be worth the D**n drive lol

[Slushy Inch]

Quite a few cold EPS members.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

This is a new graphic from NWS. As the models are hinting, we should rack up a ton more freezes. Seems like this year they haven't been using as much of the probabilistic forecast graphics they used in the last couple of years (which is a shame because I liked those), but I guess it's easier to understand?

I've noticed (at least for NWS Portland) that they've been using probabilities in their AFDs more. They did have a survey a bit ago asking for feedback for some graphics (which included a snowfall probability one from December 2021), so maybe the general public didn't really like those graphics as much or something?

[Blizzard777]

Down in Pdx enjoying this wet rain today and playing with slime my grandson made.  My imagination went wild!  Two things I love in my life represented…my 4Runner and Snaw (Scottish)

Also hitting  Portland Cider for their festival Saturday night.   Should be a blast! Portland Cider Wassail. 
 

Tigard 47* according to my daughters temp gauge 

[Slushy Inch]

Hopefully this 18z GFS is a sign of good trends! However drunk it is

[Blizzard777]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pays to be near those refineries!

Ex is right next door and gas is dramatically cheaper and of course pay cash and it’s even cheaper.  

[Slushy Inch]

OK GFS sure thing.

[Snownerd3000]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Models are looking impressively dry this month. I'm at 0.5" so far and will probably end up with less than 1" total of precipitation through the first 2/3 of the month. After that who knows what's going to happen, but unless a big AR makes a visit at the end of the month December will probably end up being below (if not significantly below) average.

November part 2 indeed!

[AlTahoe]

9 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

I'm gonna need some proof of under $3. That'd be worth the D**n drive lol

Seriously. We are still at $5.89 down from $6.99 

[MossMan]

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Cold air sinks. Cold airmasses literally tend towards inversions.

When I first read your post I thought you said that “cold air stinks” and thought someone hacked your account!

[Terreboner]

I believe with 75% certainty everyone above 1000' will have a white Christmas, those below I give a 50% probability.  The long range models are looking very good for sustained cold and we get some systems in the mix around the 20th.

Who's with me??  C'mon Rob!!!!!

[Phishy Wx]

hey dudes, let not turn this into a "my gas costs $xxxx" thread.  go to the off topic thread.  Thanks, not the management

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

OK GFS sure thing.

 

[Snownerd3000]

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Great trend so far for a possible retrograde.

[Guest administrator]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

hey dudes, let not turn this into a "my gas costs $xxxx" thread.  go to the off topic thread.  Thanks, not the management

You're not the Management.

[Cloud]

Seems like the 18z GFS wants snow Lynnwood north

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

1” for me!!!!! 

Edited December 9, 2022 by MossMan

[Deweydog]

Raining.

[Guest administrator]

[MossMan]

Just now, administrator said:

I don’t even know what to say…Unprecedented times for Judah to say something like that!!