Popular Post TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Control run is also insane with snow... 10 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Definitely feels like an extra volatile situation. Good news is that the all-too-common #twowesttwosnow campaign will probably be hindered by that initial blocking lobe to our immediate NW later this week. Very strange progression but it makes sense why it could work. In all honesty, the way it progresses at all is very needle-thready; probably in the top 10% of solutions for Arctic air here. Any difference in timing and it slides east or digs into AK. Pretty lucky it's as close and as impactful as predicted. I'd rather we get clipped to the east than it goes too far west like the last time. The new Euro was nice but I'd prefer the 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Haven't had a sub-freezing high since the Obama administration. Anybody else here gone that long? There was no snow here on the 4th so please stop comparing this location to the airport, which we've established is a shaky station anyway. There's nothing "shaky" about EUG, it's a just a colder location than you, in general. And ironically, that station is the only major one west of the Cascades to have seen truly top tier numbers from an Arctic blast in the last 10 years. 4 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 EC ensemble already way better for snow regionally. 6 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Definitely feels like an extra volatile situation. Good news is that the all-too-common #twowesttwosnow campaign will probably be hindered by that initial blocking lobe to our immediate NW later this week. Very strange progression but it makes sense why it could work. In all honesty, the way it progresses at all is very needle-thready; probably in the top 10% of solutions for Arctic air here. Any difference in timing and it slides east or digs into AK. Pretty lucky it's as close and as impactful as predicted. Clearly it’s still a pattern which is evolving on a macro scale, even near initialization. A more stable approach is always a flatter ridge followed by a pattern breaker like 2008. The model consistency with that was pretty epic, and of course even then there was PLENTY to freak out about every 6-12 hours. 5 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Warmer/colder runs ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: EC ensemble already way better for snow regionally. Ima shade darker blue!!! 2 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Control run is also insane with snow... And that's a 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Control run is also insane with snow... Also nice in that Control run, my little friend is kinda near the mouth of the Columbia. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 hours ago, RCola said: Great ensemble improvements! Worried about flying out of Seattle on the 19th, though. I hope if we do get snow the time frame moves up 12-24 hours. That seems to be the theme this year so fingers crossed. I don't want to get too excited, but this could be one of those rare events where I experience cold and snow out here first and a week later experience the same cold and snow out east. We're flying out of SeaTac on the 16th to Palm Springs and returning on the 19th. Wondering what conditions we'll face on return? Hopefully we'll get home ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Currently throwing all my rugs into the garage. I don’t want the 00z to be tempted. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Oh jeez, all that work, I shoulda just gone to weather .com... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 51 minutes ago, MossMan said: Wow for once my low was way lower than yours! I just saw Arlington had a low of 30 this morning. I've been shrouded in low clouds the whole night. I'm closer to the mountains here and that often keeps me under low clouds in these situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Currently throwing all my rugs into the garage. I don’t want the 00z to be tempted. 5 days away... too close now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Clearly it’s still a pattern which is evolving on a macro scale, even near initialization. A more stable approach is always a flatter ridge followed by a pattern breaker like 2008. The model consistency with that was pretty epic, and of course even then there was PLENTY to freak out about every 6-12 hours. Sorta like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: 5 days away... too close now 2004-05 says hold my beer... Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Like Dewey said, This thing came in like a rocket and that worries me. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Nov1985 said: Oh jeez, all that work, I shoulda just gone to weather .com... Book it!! I think the wintry mix turns to rain about 3:38 PM on Friday. And I think it's closer to a 59% chance, 58% ? What-e-ver!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 2004-05 says hold my beer... Fortunately, most models have improved significantly since then. GFS, probably not. 1 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive1010 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 chill with the east wind 1 1 1 Weather! Atmospheric conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 I like the idea of moving into a more inversionary pattern after we get a shot of cold as opposed to raging SW flow. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 I'm in a real good mood today. I almost clicked onto the sports thread which would've been a huge mistake. I can only imagine what Tim was saying about yesterday's game. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Terreboner said: I'm in a real good mood today. I almost clicked onto the sports thread which would've been a huge mistake. I can only imagine what Tim was saying about yesterday's game. Well at least you get put out of your misery early this week. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Sorta like this? Kinda maybe, although the floataway block usually has to be resolved. That’s been the tendency with most of our favorable blocking patterns the last several years is for them to evolve very quickly as they approach full-latitude status. Here’s the precursor pattern to the 2008 progression… 3 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just crunched some numbers and it looks like our mean so far this month is 35.1. Not bad! Powered by an average high/low of 39.2/30.9. We should be lower this over the coming week +. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 The xmas warmup is too far out to write. But the early draft looks less benign than I could imagine. Just not a lot of big rain/wind events in the cards this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 CFS is a little slower with the arctic air, but well... It gets there... 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive1010 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 This is a freaking lie this sucks lol 1 1 Weather! Atmospheric conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlz Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Snyder starting to believe 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Currently 42 after a low of 37. Some really great model trends this morning I’m glad this kind of came out of nowhere within the 7 day timeframe rather than it showing up 14 days out. I had a feeling we would see something pop up out of nowhere given the blocky pattern we are in. 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Back here in the present it seems this low level cold episode is off to kind of a lame start. Lots of mid level clouds hanging around, only fell to 38 last night. Mostly cloudy and 43 currently, hopefully we can see some clearing tonight. 2 2 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 It's going to be a long week. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, Terreboner said: I'm in a real good mood today. I almost clicked onto the sports thread which would've been a huge mistake. I can only imagine what Tim was saying about yesterday's game. Randy and I were not happy! Its all archived in the sports thread. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Back here in the present it seems this low level cold episode is off to kind of a lame start. Lots of mid level clouds hanging around, only fell to 38 last night. Mostly cloudy and 43 currently, hopefully we can see some clearing tonight. I got us a table, what do you want to drink? They have strawberry lemonade! My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Not much sense looking at the snow details but i'd really love to see a regional old school arctic front crash clear into Salem. 4 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Told myself I'd take a little break from the models yesterday... Woke up this morning... Cancelled that plan. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Not much sense looking at the snow details but i'd really love to see a regional old school arctic front crash clear into Salem. I don't even remember what an Arctic front is like. 1 3 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 I am... cautiously one foot on board-- hopefully we get some consensus on a nice overrunning event. 3 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Kicking off a new thread. Will merge into the older one if we need a Part III or if we hit January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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