PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

How does the GEFS look?

Just like the GFS with both eyes closed

[SouthHillFrosty]

Portland does good on this run also! 10-20 inches north of Portland. South Oregon isn’t looking so hot….

[Cold Snap]

The GFS has been pretty inconsistent with this. I’m not going to get worried unless the Euro starts going in the same direction. I feel like we are more okay than usual since the Euro is the one that really picked up on this first and has been consistent on it.

[MossMan]

It could be the fever, but it appears the models are not quite locked in yet. 

[lowlandsnow]

Single digits for Seattle on Christmas Eve morning

[Winterdog]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

The GFS has been pretty inconsistent with this. I’m not going to get worried unless the Euro starts going in the same direction. I feel like we are more okay than usual since the Euro is the one that really picked up on this first and has been consistent on it.

Are you disappointed with the run?  20" of snow and bitter cold thru Christmas?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Single digits for Seattle on Christmas Eve morning

I hope Santa doesn’t get cold

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It's also a fantasy.

It just looks crazy, like a final boss.

[fubario]

it's starting to get mentioned by sea nws

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Friday looks like another dry
day before a shortwave trough drops over the ridge and into the area
over the weekend. The 18z GFS and the 00z GFS this evening scoop out
a broad upper trough over western Canada on Saturday and then
through Sunday and Monday turn the flow westerly over the area while
emphasizing an upper low center up around Ketchikan. Even with the
flow turning more zonal through Monday 850mb temps in the GFS over
Seattle might still be cool enough for snow around -7c over the
weekend even if a modified arctic front doesn`t quite reach the
area. There isn`t a great deal of precip in the GFS solutions but
modified arctic fronts often squeeze out a couple inches of snow
around Puget Sound. The 12z ECMWF was more dramatic--developing a
516dam upper low right over Vancouver Island Saturday night and
naturally it has lower surface pressures and probably more moisture
convergence as the modified arctic front arrives. The forecast is a
blend of solutions that gives the area a chance of snow this
weekend.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The GEM isn't quite as nice in snowfall or duration, but wow, that's about as cold an onshore flow as you'll ever see.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Single digits for Seattle on Christmas Eve morning

I guess I would take that. With snow cover.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It could be the fever, but it appears the models are not quite locked in yet. 

Definitely too early and volatile to get onboard yet…but could very well be a good event coming. The whole look of it from the 500mb level is just funky. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Dave said:

I'm not sure I can handle another warm nose this time. But seriously, this is the GFS. It never gets it right this far in advance. Not worried yet.

I would weep for days if this run verified. Probably move to Indiana with Tiger. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Portland does good on this run also! 10-20 inches north of Portland. South Oregon isn’t looking so hot….

Starting to think God hates us. 

[Doinko]

Another Puget Sound snowstorm Christmas Eve.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I guess I would take that. With snow cover.

Also looks like we got a transition event inbound 

 

Edit: nvm

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[Timmy]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Portland does good on this run also! 10-20 inches north of Portland. South Oregon isn’t looking so hot….

It doesn’t really though, much of the moisture is marginal or likely zr or sleet

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Definitely too early and volatile to get onboard yet…but could very well be a good event coming. The whole look of it from the 500mb level is just funky. 

DEFINITELY… very DEFINITE! 

[lowlandsnow]

Another 6+ inches for WA on Christmas Eve

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t really think it has much potential down here. That’s why I’m not very invested in this. 

[Nov1985]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is what us southerners call a rip your heart out run. Pure disappointment if it pans out like that. 
 

Waiting for Euro. 

Pay no attention to GFS. It means literally nothing this week.

[lowlandsnow]

I think this would count as a White Christmas

[Doinko]

Portland gets a sleet blizzard and the Willamette Valley gets an ice storm for Christmas on this run. I don't think the GFS likes Oregon much

[fubario]

and our friends in the hnl nws with this tidbit on the long range for next week's developing kona low..

A stronger front may affect the area early next week as a deep
low sets up within 1500 miles north of Hawaii. Breezy to windy
southwest flow could develop as early as Sunday, and wet and
unsettled weather is becoming increasing likely.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow!

[gusky]

LOL this is actually a joke. I'm dying

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

I think this would count as a White Christmas

Deepest one ever!

[Requiem]

Shades of February 2021. We're very lucky to have the Gorge as a factor. Hopefully the lows trend south for those sorely in need of some winter weather S of Salem.

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would weep for days if this run verified. Probably move to Indiana with Tiger. 

I found a neighborhood above Oakridge of about 20-25 homes. 2400ft. Might be worth checking out.

[bainbridgekid]

21 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

I’ve never seen arctic air so perfectly line up with the Rockies like that before. Very weird pattern.

[snow_wizard]

I'm betting on a GFS / ECMWF compromise from here.  That would be a winner for many of us.

[Slushy Inch]

Pacific and polar jet combine to bury western Washington!

[TT-SEA]

By Christmas Day... 

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile....still waiting for these stupid clouds to clear out tonight.  It's taking forever.

[Slushy Inch]

Actually, doesn't stop snowing in Seattle, we may see highest snow map from GFS ever.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Pacific and polar jet combine to bury western Washington!

December 1996 there.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

By Christmas Day... 

I can tell the GEM must be very snowy also just from the 500mb and 850s.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Actually, doesn't stop snowing in Seattle, we may see highest snow map from GFS ever.

10 feet?

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

By Christmas Day... 

[Requiem]

GEM is kinda bad-- but Portland would be the most wintry place in the western Oregon lowlands as cold entrenched air leaves us with snow transitioning into ZR.