PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Earlier in the run it seemed like there could be some small positive changes that could make an impact further down the road... But maybe not. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm going to wait a little bit longer to see where this goes, but at least we saw some improvement on the ICON.

For sure... it sort of looks like the ECMWF now for Monday.   Just a little further north.    But if its close to the ECMWF that day then maybe it will follow the ECMWF craziness afterwards.

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

Yup, that's what I said.

[Phishy Wx]

first big deal wx event I remember back east in SC was a huge ice storm in I think 80 when I was 5, power was out for a week, my dad was in Charleston SC on biz and trapped,  we slept in front a kerosene heater for warmth on the living room floor.

next was a huge arctic outbreak in January of '85, Columbia SC had its all time low of -2.  I remember the cove of the lake we lived on froze over, super rare.  I was going to my neighbors and we'd try to mimic playing hockey on their frozen solid Duck pond.  That's when at age 10 the wx obsession started.

After that was going thru Hurricane Hugo in September of 89.  that solidified my weeniness for a lifetime at age 14.

My grandpa and I, when I was 13 or 14 until I went to college (they lived next door) would pound shitty beer and sit in the carport in the summer and listen to the Wx radio and watch for Thunderstorms.  great bonding moment and my parents got so mad at him for giving me beer. lol

 

 

 

 

 

[fubario]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

This is completely bogus, right?

 

 

RIGHT???

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I got interested in the weather when only a few select coastal areas had NOAA Weather Radio (and I was a teen in rural New Mexico). Thankfully a radio station in nearby Santa Fe had an automated recording you could dial to get the current forecast. Dialed that number daily and I still remember it, even though the service has been defunct for many years.

Weather was heavily influenced by terrain and the local terrain where I lived would either significantly inhibit snowfall (normal case) or greatly enhance it (once or twice per season). Took me a few years to figure out when the latter would happen. Was always exciting when I could see that pattern coming.

Plus side was being able to score a big dump of snow at least once per season. Minus was that most of the winter involved bare ground and scoring no more than dustings while other mountain communities regularly got the goods.

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

For sure... it sort of looks like the ECMWF now for Monday.   Just a little further north.    But if its close to the ECMWF that day then maybe it will follow the ECMWF craziness afterwards.

 

I still can’t believe it’s the GFS that we need to get on board the Euro craziness and not the other way around.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looks cold

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks cold

Does not!

[Mid Valley Duck]

Arctic trough is much deeper but its hanging up a little further north from the 12z

[SouthHillFrosty]

Zero snow so far this run except by the border 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

I still can’t believe it’s the GFS that we need to get on board the Euro craziness and not the other way around.

It's crazy.   I didn't even think this was possible.   And it's not just one run.   We are begging the GFS to join in on the ECMWF craziness and it keeps refusing!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks cold

Welp, there goes my arctic blast.

Thankfully, it’s just the GFS.

[Snownerd3000]

 

Lol

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It's crazy.   I didn't even think this was possible.   And it's not just one run.   We are begging the GFS to join in on the ECMWF craziness and it keeps refusing!

It's going to be fine.  18z Goofus for crying out loud.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks cold

Yuck I’m not even quite sure what I’m looking at but stop posting these.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just majestic...

 

I just saw the 12z EURO. Whoa, great run! Very cold!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's crazy.   I didn't even think this was possible.   And it's not just one run.   We are begging the GFS to join in on the ECMWF craziness and it keeps refusing!

My money is on the Euro being closer to the truth. Because it typically is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's interesting, you can clearly see what happens, to mess this whole pattern up...  It's basically the base of the block isn't strong enough and some random energy gets sucked into the base of the trough which forms a low that essentially cuts off the southern push of the arctic air. 

[TT-SEA]

Arctic front arrives in Seattle late Tuesday on this run. 

[HuskyMaestro]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I got interested in the weather when only a few select coastal areas had NOAA Weather Radio (and I was a teen in rural New Mexico). Thankfully a radio station in nearby Santa Fe had an automated recording you could dial to get the current forecast. Dialed that number daily and I still remember it, even though the service has been defunct for many years.

Weather was heavily influenced by terrain and the local terrain where I lived would either significantly inhibit snowfall (normal case) or greatly enhance it (once or twice per season). Took me a few years to figure out when the latter would happen. Was always exciting when I could see that pattern coming.

Plus side was being able to score a big dump of snow at least once per season. Minus was that most of the winter involved bare ground and scoring no more than dustings while other mountain communities regularly got the goods.

My weather interest/epiphany moment came from a Philippines vacation on our 2 week trip home and becoming fascinated with the typhoon that rolled in. But even before that I wanted to be a weatherman at age 7 and I was drawing weekly forecasts on a whiteboard. 

It feels weird being more comfortable with hurricanes and how these freaks of nature work cause I've followed cyclones longer than our own winter weather seasons, despite never getting hurricanes here lol. I'm still a complete weather amateur at the end of the day though, maybe something I can minor in. 

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's interesting, you can clearly see what happens, to mess this whole pattern up...  It's basically the base of the block isn't strong enough and some random energy gets sucked into the base of the trough which forms a low that essentially cuts off the southern push of the arctic air. 

I give that a .0001% chance of verifying.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

first big deal wx event I remember back east in SC was a huge ice storm in I think 80 when I was 5, power was out for a week, my dad was in Charleston SC on biz and trapped,  we slept in front a kerosene heater for warmth on the living room floor.

One that sticks big in my mind was when I was a sophomore in high school, when a long sad streak of below-normal snowfall winters finally snapped. Suddenly, there was the kind of snowstorm the other kids talked about happening before I moved to that town underway. It started like a garden-variety snowfall but then just kept snowing and snowing and snowing and piling up deeper and deeper.

[Deweydog]

At the very least this run kills the clear, crisp offshore flow pattern.

[Mid Valley Duck]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's interesting, you can clearly see what happens, to mess this whole pattern up...  It's basically the base of the block isn't strong enough and some random energy gets sucked into the base of the trough which forms a low that essentially cuts off the southern push of the arctic air. 

The GFS handled the ridge merger that will happen tomorrow and Thursday poorly. It was playing catch up to the other models on its strength. Hopefully its mishandling this piece to the evolution as well.

[TT-SEA]

18Z run is step backwards from the 12Z run for sure.    

But does it really matter with the ECMWF sticking to it guns?    Most likely not.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

oh this is fun

From about PDX Metro north is in the high risk category right now. Good to see and hopefully the line drags further south as we get closer to this event.

[TT-SEA]

What does concern me a little is that the 18 GFS actually looks like the 12Z EPS by next Thursday...

 

[Phishy Wx]

weird that Druncle is the 'sober' one of the daily runs for a couple days now

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z run is step backwards from the 12Z run for sure.    

But does it really matter with the ECMWF sticking to it guns?    Most likely not.

The difference between the Euro and its ensembles is much more interesting to me.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z run is step backwards from the 12Z run for sure.    

But does it really matter with the ECMWF sticking to it guns?    Most likely not.

Yes, it obviously matters. The Euro is kind of on its own right now. No way pdx sees an upper level blast like the 12z Euro showed. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Crazy how the block just migrates north and all the forcing is just lost as that energy at the same time gets pulled into the base of the block and tries to become a overrunning event. The way the gfs handles this would suck!

[Christensen87]

What GFS shows is just more realistic honestly, and CFS shows the same pattern as well. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

The difference between the Euro and its ensembles is much more interesting to me.

And the fact that the 18Z GFS lines up with the EPS ensemble mean... but the ECMWF has been consistent.   

[Terreboner]

Like a waxed poetically earlier.  It will be all about the 00z runs.  3 words, patience, patience, patience.

[Slushy Inch]

Good GEFS trends!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z run is step backwards from the 12Z run for sure.    

But does it really matter with the ECMWF sticking to it guns?    Most likely not.

Bigger than a step back, it's basically gone on this run. Most everything is shunted east.

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

What does concern me a little is that the 18 GFS actually looks like the 12Z EPS by next Thursday...

 

The EPS is split into 3 camps. The op and control are in the cold camp with about 20% of members. The 18z GFS is in the warm camp.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the fact that the 18Z GFS lines up with the EPS ensemble mean... but the ECMWF has been consistent.   

Hard to ignore a majority 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Good GEFS trends!

Unfortunately... the GEFS now matches the 18Z operational run at that time.