Meatyorologist Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 The GEM is notorious for spawning Arctic bowling balls. I love those little suckers but they're hard to get in practice. 5 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 I think Euro holds or gets better and 6z GFS is a big improvement. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 GEM is trying to shove it south at day 6. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Gonna get stopped by customs for having 100 grams of cocaine (disguised as snow) hidden under the floorboards. Will try valiantly to escape, only to be mauled by 6 angry German Shepherds and ultimately emasculated by a taser. Slightly different topic than cocaine. Since you are in SW WA. What do you think of the climate of Camas/Washougal up around 1k ft in the hills to the NE? Any thoughts on the typical snow per season? Seems like it would be a nice spot. Any obvious downsides from a climate perspective? Annoyingly high amounts of precip? Damaging east winds? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: GEM is trying to shove it south at day 6. Gets very wet and snowy north of Portland but then warms up fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: I think Euro holds or gets better and 6z GFS is a big improvement. Usually I would have a sinking feeling at this point, and I just don't this time. Maybe it's because we still have so much time or that we've already scored, but I don't feel impending doom. 3 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Meanwhile the GEM is better tonight. Not perfect, but better. This is still too close to call. I think this GEM run indicates that models will cave to EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Usually I would have a sinking feeling at this point, and I just don't this time. Maybe it's because we still have so much time or that we've already scored, but I don't feel impending doom. Because we are holding on hope to the Euro not the GFS probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Gets very wet and snowy north of Portland but then warms up fast It's a big step in the right direction. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 The 12Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS could not be farther apart late next week. The complete opposite pattern. 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 curious why people are so hell bent on thinking GFS is somehow the correct one even though it's been the least consistent? is it just overall westside pessimism? shellshock from getting burned in the past. what is it? I guess we'll know soon enough with the euro. such a weird setup indeed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Canadian definitely sorta gets there, after some mucky Pacific backwash. At least it's trying unlike the bloody Yanks. Or Hitler's ICON. Hopefully the Euro somehow ends up schooling them both and we can safely relegate both GFS and ICON to the trash bin. 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: Because we are holding on hope to the Euro not the GFS probably. I would feel much better about all of this is the EPS was closer to the control/op 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Run to run comparison just to see how much of shift GEM run is towards EURO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Phishy Wx said: curious why people are so hell bent on thinking GFS is somehow the correct one even though it's been the least consistent? is it just overall westside pessimism? shellshock from getting burned in the past. what is it? I guess we'll know soon enough with the euro. such a weird setup indeed It’s the flagship model in the US. It use to be a lot more right…. It’s still the #2 model behind the Euro…….ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 I prefer no legit arctic blast, I just want to have multiple snow possibilities, I don't need the snow to stick around for days on end. To me it is the most fun when it is actually snowing, not the boring days of dying snow afterwards. P.S.---This is my opinion only, which I am allowed to have as a human being. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: I think Euro holds or gets better and 6z GFS is a big improvement. Some sick, twisted, vile part of me agrees. 4 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said: Gem made some improvements but still wants to move that trough west instead of continuing to dig The ridge ballooning up north so fast has been a red flag for a couple days now...in all models, even the ones that eventually deliver. Gotta have a legit forcing mechanism to push that Arctic air south. 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Run to run comparison just to see how much of shift GEM run is towards EURO. Less of a shift, and more of an entirely different solution. Immense volatility. 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 GEFS is out to hour 120 and it looks worse so far... 1 1 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: I think this GEM run indicates that models will cave to EURO. The GFS, GEM, and ICON all show warm 850mb temps later next week... as do the EPS and GEFS. Meanwhile the ECMWF is showing one of the greatest arctic blasts in history at the same time. Pretty crazy. 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: It’s the flagship model in the US. It use to be a lot more right…. It’s still the #2 model behind the Euro…….ish I know this, but it's been a dumpster fire since the most recent upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 WTF IS going on here. This is WILD. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: I think Euro holds or gets better and 6z GFS is a big improvement. After the day we've had, all I could ask for is the Euro to hold and bring on a 2013 Seahawks defense. 2 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Valley Duck Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 UKMET much closer to GEM than GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 That is quite a change! 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Front Ranger said: The ridge ballooning up north so fast has been a red flag for a couple days now...in all models, even the ones that eventually deliver. Gotta have a legit forcing mechanism to push that Arctic air south. That forcing mechanism is brief, but it's there. I've seen Arctic air seep its way in with worse upper level support. Some models are less aggressive with breaking down that ridge than others, which alters potential beyond day 6. 4 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 12Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS could not be farther apart late next week. The complete opposite pattern. The GEM made a big step toward the ECMWF tonight. This is far from over. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Less of a shift, and more of an entirely different solution. Immense volatility. Well with such model disagreement that can be expected, one has to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowstone Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: curious why people are so hell bent on thinking GFS is somehow the correct one even though it's been the least consistent? is it just overall westside pessimism? shellshock from getting burned in the past. what is it? I guess we'll know soon enough with the euro. such a weird setup indeed My 2 cents is it’s because the Euro is so different from its own ensembles so we’re prepared for that to cave so we want GFS to be something good it can cave to, or provide support for EURO’s solution. If EURO and EPS were in lockstep, we’d be ignoring GFS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: That forcing mechanism is brief, but it's there. I've seen Arctic air seep its way in with worse upper level support. Some models are less aggressive with breaking down that ridge than others, which alters potential beyond day 6. What do you think about the pattern behind the Euro's solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That is quite a change! Posted that as well! Can't wait to see what Euro brings. Hard to imagine that our best model loses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Obviously the EURO is completely out to lunch. That doesn't mean the GFS is right either. The GEM solution is something I could see happening... Though probably not that extreme. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The GFS, GEM, and ICON all show warm 850mb temps later next week... as do the EPS and GEFS. Meanwhile the ECMWF is showing one of the greatest arctic blasts in history at the same time. Pretty crazy. When the operational massively disagrees with the ensemble mean, it undermines confidence. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, yellowstone said: My 2 cents it’s because the Euro is so different from its own ensembles so we’re prepared for that to cave so we want GFS to be something good it can cave to, or provide support for EURO’s solutions. If EURO and EPS were in lockstep, we’d be ignoring GFS. This a good point. The GEFS and EPS are the biggest red flags for me. And the 00Z GEFS is going nowhere and trending a little warmer again. But man... I never bet against a consistent ECMWF. If its the same tonight its going to be hard to discount. 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 One thing all models show is serious vodka cold in BC. That makes the potential that much greater. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 This is one of my favorite forecast model incidents of all time. I'm saving this GFS Christmas day snowfall fcst map! 1 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: When the operational massively disagrees with the ensemble mean, it undermines confidence. Yeah to be honest, these situations are exactly what ensembles were made for. 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The GEM made a big step toward the ECMWF tonight. This is far from over. I don't really feel like it did at all. It brings in a very cold maritime airmass in what becomes a very progressive pattern. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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