PNW December 2022 - Part II

[TT-SEA]

Tropical Tidbits lets you easily compare previous runs but on the ECMWF it only shows one frame per day so the comparison is to the 00Z run from last night.    At day 2 its basically the same... slightly worse compared to 00Z run last night.   I think some of these notches in the first 3 or 4 days are actually just the normal wobbling without changing much overall.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Lots of high pressure over Alaska 

[Slushy Inch]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 850s, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip Type, Rate

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Here we go…..

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Interesting...

Man - Euro is gonna hang that carrot, isn't it?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 850s -12c Seattle, -14c Bellingham

[Cold Snap]

C’mon King Euro!!!

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Some big differences!

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

Fun little wind battle across western WA on Monday morning.   

Strong NE wind near Bellingham... no wind near Randy (c-zone!)... and strong SW wind for King County.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3.5 850s -12c Seattle, -14c Bellingham

I think that's the coldest point on this run.

[Slushy Inch]

Pretty good!

[Slushy Inch]

Hmmm

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF extends trough just a little farther offshore on Monday and the result is more precip on Tuesday.   Warming up pretty fast from the south but still brings lots of snow to the north.   @ShawniganLake

[Poulsbo Snowman]

It might get kinda ugly in the next frame or two.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Big snow event for the sound again. Lol crazy models.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

There's that bullseye of snow over Quilcene again.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Temps in some locations actually support the chance.

[yellowstone]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Uh…

[Cloud]

Tuesday morning widespread snow for W.Wa

[SouthHillFrosty]

This is pretty similar to January 2020. North of Seattle looks good! Not so much south tho!

[Gradient Keeper]

Snowy around Bellingham!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This is pretty similar to January 2020. North of Seattle looks good! Not so much south tho!

As Mossman keeps reminding us, January 2020 was great for us northerners.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TacomaWx]

Looks like we’ve had 2 very slight tweaks on the last 2 euro runs in the overall pattern which definitely leads to a slightly better outcome in the end.   Low still comes in too far north for most of the Puget sound but it’s a bit further south than the last run. Maybe we get lucky and things adjust and send that low in just a but further south across the model runs? I hope so but I doubt it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Uhhhh Day 5.5 cold air pushes south again into Puget Sound.

[Hawksfan2008]

With so much change run to run all we can ask for is a trend. This was a good trend tonight. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Snowy around Bellingham!

That low just needs to come in south by about 10 miles for me lol! 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Snowy around Bellingham!

May not buy into the warmup being shown here. Cools back down quickly Tuesday night - Wednesday morning with lingering snow showers 

[Gradient Keeper]

Unexpected good improvements Day 3-5....

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

That low just needs to come in south by about 10 miles for me lol! 

Bring out the snowplow and it will happen!!!!

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF extends trough just a little farther offshore on Monday and the result is more precip on Tuesday.   Warming up pretty fast from the south but still brings lots of snow to the north.   @ShawniganLake

That’s a pretty snowstorm track for here.