PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This could actually set up the screw zone right where it was for the last series of snow events.    

And, that would be right here.  I hope not.  Last time snow was possible the precip flowed away from and around Bainbridge like we had a forcefield up.

[Hawksfan2008]

We’re in a great spot right now. I also wouldn’t get caught up in the overrunning event dropping off the EURO. With that much cold air in place and the eventual flip it will remain a very real possibility. 

[Cloud]

Surface levels cold sticks around. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If this plays out like euro shows it will be one of the all time great rug pull and return in the history of the forum.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Way too dryyyyyyy

[Doinko]

Ice storm incoming on the Euro

[TT-SEA]

Precip is too slow to arrive... air mass has warmed up significantly by Friday morning for either rain or freezing rain from Everett southward.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Portland is in the teens all day Thursday with a strong east wind. Wow

And some zr

Sub freezing at eug!!!

[TacomaWx]

It’s very cold after the snowstorm on this run. Would be a shortlived but very solid intrusion of cold air. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This could actually set up the screw zone right where it was for the last series of snow events.    

That'd really suck. This is a much more impressive airmass though. Way colder at the upper levels, which will help induce instability. I doubt it ends up that dry up north, especially if things stall out for a bit like they typically do in these situations.

[Timmy]

41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2014? Yeah, I remember that as well, and then it looked like just a dry blast with the precip staying south of Roseburg, and it trended north at the last minute. Came together very quickly. The whole January 2004 thing was not forecast well in advance either, just a couple days. The New Year's Day snow event was a total surprise, and the overrunning event only came into focus 2-3 days out IIRC. 

Yeah it would have been 2014

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can someone post a WB 850 map from the coldest point. 

[Christensen87]

Talk about emotional rollercoaster.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

It’s very cold after the snowstorm on this run. Would be a shortlived but very solid intrusion of cold air. 

If that cold of air arrives it will not leave that easy. 100% fact.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

And, that would be right here.  I hope not.  Last time snow was possible the precip flowed away from and around Bainbridge like we had a forcefield up.

Latest Euro shows Bainbridge getting about 6" total. This time will be colder. Not much phantom snow.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Precip is too slow to arrive... air mass has warmed up significantly by Friday morning for either rain or freezing rain from Everett southward.

hour 168...will probably look totally different in 3 days! Now we know we cant even trust Euro to be consistent days 6-7

[TT-SEA]

Cold will be trapped at the surface but snow is almost impossible with 850mb temps well above freezing.     At least that is what this run shows for Friday morning.    

[TacomaWx]

Looks like a nasty transition at the end. The trends are very good right now but based on the model instability of the past week plz don’t tell your families and jinx us! 

[Gummy]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Precip is too slow to arrive... air mass has warmed up significantly by Friday morning for either rain or freezing rain from Everett southward.

 

Just curious, but what does the wind map show at that point?

[Hawksfan2008]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can someone post a WB 850 map from the coldest point. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If that cold of air arrives it will not leave that easy. 100% fact.

 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If that cold of air arrives it will not leave that easy. 100% fact.

Yeah the euros got a nasty big overrunning event at the end. We all know those overperform. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If this plays out like euro shows it will be one of the all time great rug pull and return in the history of the forum.

[TT-SEA]

Lots of freezing rain shown for Friday... luckily precip is rather light and moving through quickly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Wow! Thanks. 

[Cloud]

Very cold minimum temps for all. brr

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah the euros got a nasty big overrunning event at the end. We all know those overperform. 

Frigid Gorge outflow as well. It shows like a 19/17 day for Portland on Thursday (Probably a warmer max but I don't know the 24hr max/mins)

[Meatyorologist]

20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is now the turning point. Gfs is just wrong.

Yep

[Brennan]

I’ve gotta be honest. I’m sticking with the GFS. I think the rest cave soon.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Just curious, but what does the wind map show at that point?

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The euro is almost as cold as it was Tuesday. About 4c warmer it looks.

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

Oh boy…that could be a problem here  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Portland is in the teens all day Thursday with a strong east wind. Wow

And some zr

Current 7 day forecast from KPTV and KGW. KPTV hasn’t updated yet today. Will be interesting to see how this forecast changes in the coming days!

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

I’ve gotta be honest. I’m sticking with the GFS. I think the rest cave soon.

American pride

[Cascadia_Wx]

WOW

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If this plays out like euro shows it will be one of the all time great rug pull and return in the history of the forum.

February 2019 turned around at 120hr give or take, and I thought that was about as extreme as it gets. This 90hr-ish turnaround from glancing blow to potentially the deepest Arctic intrusion in 32 years would absolutely destroy this forum. Fred would have to buy twelve new servers.

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like a nasty transition at the end. The trends are very good right now but based on the model instability of the past week plz don’t tell your families and jinx us! 

D*mn.  I just added to the family Christmas letter..  

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow for just the transition event and total snow for the run...

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

February 2019 turned around at 120hr give or take, and I thought that was about as extreme as it gets. This 90hr-ish turnaround from glancing blow to potentially the deepest Arctic intrusion in 32 years would absolutely destroy this forum. Fred would have to buy twelve new servers.

I'm really liking the signal for some cold Gorge outflow as well.