PNW December 2022 - Part II

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

I’m really excited about the convergence zone possibilities Sunday Night. If I get snow Sunday night I would be fine with the Tuesday storm going south into Portland.

I’m pretty sure Portland is going to end up getting hit hard 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Logging off going to job two. See y’all around midnight!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Chances are we get a bit of snow south of Seattle in this scenario too. Usually happens with the models under doing precip on north side of the low. I’d be fine with just 1” of snow next week. 

This run just doesn't go far enough.  It' just arriving at the end.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Logging off going to job two. See y’all around midnight!

You should quit and stay here.

#lifecoach

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Moving north at the point, maybe Seattle and Portland score.

Moving pretty much east.   But each run has moved the focus of the band farther south.   Until it stops it shifting south we don't really know where it ends up.   But eventually the shifts with each run should narrow down to nothing.

[snow_wizard]

I hardly know what to do this looks so good! 

[Terreboner]

6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Euro has done the opposite of regress.

No, it originally showed that epic run a few days ago.  It came down to earth some which is still really good.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This run just doesn't go far enough.  It' just arriving at the end.

I think this is going to continue to trend a tad further south…but not enough to wipe out the snow chances Seattle southwards. Portland is due for a big winter storm this looks like it’s about to happen. 

[Cloud]

COLDER runs ahead

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think this is going to continue to trend a tad further south…but not enough to wipe out the snow chances Seattle southwards. Portland is due for a big winter storm this looks like it’s about to happen. 

Don’t tell Mossman 

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I hardly know what to do this looks so good! 

Sit back and sip a nice bourbon, that's what I'm doing.

[Cold Snap]

KOMO news is on board for the arctic front stalling around the Seattle area!

[Terreboner]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

KOMO news is on board for the arctic front stalling around the Seattle area!

Wishcasting

[Mid Valley Duck]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definite shift south with moisture band at 90 hours compared to 12Z run.

12Z on top and 18Z on bottom.    Tuesday might end up being a snow day for Portland.

Keep coming south for me and TWL

[joelgombiner]

You love to see a forecast like this for Seattle. 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

No, it originally showed that epic run a few days ago.  It came down to earth some which is still really good.

I'm keeping that earlier run saved

[Terreboner]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Keep coming south for me and TWL

And for me, my snowblob will disappear if it doesn't.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

COLDER runs ahead

Anyone notice the 850s over Montana is mimicking the outline of this state? Kinda scary.  

[Doinko]

Just now, Terreboner said:

And for me, my snowblob will disappear if it doesn't.

How'd your area do in late February 2019?

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

COLDER runs ahead

This has potential to go top tier.

[Brennan]

I'm stick with an average between the GFS and the EURO at this point. I expect the GFS to inch south and the EURO to inch north over the coming 24 hours. The low will probably end up moving east near Tacoma, burying the entire Puget Sound from Seattle to Bellingham. This is a wishcast... 

[Slushy Inch]

Upper-level divergence bumps up at the end of the run. May contribute to snow developing over Puget sound. Plus, there no really dry air at low levels. Real chance we both win! 

[Deweydog]

Mark is NOT on board.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How'd your area do in late February 2019?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Moving pretty much east.   But each run has moved the focus of the band farther south.   Until it stops it shifting south we don't really know where it ends up.   But eventually the shifts with each run should narrow down to nothing.

I can see the northern and southern energy phasing kind of like what we saw on the GEM and Icon. Incredible scenario if it verifies. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Mark is NOT on board.

Gonna be funny if this busts for him like 2008 when he said the central Willamette Valley would rise up to like 45F and they stayed all snow and at 32F.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can see the northern and southern energy phasing kind of like what we saw on the GEM and Icon. Incredible scenario if it verifies. 

1/10/17 overperformance please

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Mark is NOT on board.

That is not a face I would trust. 

[snow_wizard]

That low north of Hawaii is about 2 or 3 degrees further west at hour 90 vs 12z hour 96.  Probably means a further extension on the cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Keep coming south for me and TWL

I think you will get some snow. Not sure about Eugene yet. This thing would deliver for you if it went out a couple more frames. The northern posters are going to get snow Sunday and Monday with convergence. So their whining is really moot…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna be funny if this busts for him like 2008 when he said the central Willamette Valley would rise up to like 45F and they stayed all snow and at 32F.

Yeah the massive snow event on 12/22/22 was only forecast by ROD HILL. He said the Central Valley would get 1-4”, it was like 3x that much but hey he was closest. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Mark is NOT on board.

I bet he would really hate to see his facial expression at this second.

[Darrington Troll]

Fairly certain snow will start on Saturday at my location. Still have partial snow cover from the November event. #blessed 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I bet he would really hate to see his facial expression at this second.

That was a one take effort on my part. Pretty proud of myself.

[TT-SEA]

Nice view of Cascades this evening...

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Upper-level divergence bumps up at the end of the run. May contribute to snow developing over Puget sound. Plus, there no realyl dry air at low levels. Real chance we both win! 

Surface gradients are northerly and not easterly.  Good scenario for Seattle.

[BLI snowman]

27 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I’m willing to give OR their snow for a prolonged period of cold. 

Now there's the Christmas spirit.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Nice view of Cascades this evening...

That's the way it should look all the time in the winter.  Unless it's snowing of course.

[snow_wizard]

The ground is frozen pretty hard here so any snow that falls this weekend should have no problem sticking.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Surface gradients are northerly and not easterly.  Good scenario for Seattle.

Good east king won’t get screwed