PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Terreboner]

Just now, Ziess said:

Excuse the newb here but is this air mass high enough to spill over the cascades or is just a gap event through the gorge? 

Through the gorge.  Where are you in the valley?

[Everleigh]

39.4* and it's doin a drizzle. 

[Terreboner]

Just now, dhoffine said:

I usually follow the model riding so well, but ya'll have me so confused now.  Will someone give me the dumb guy breakdown of this week for someone like me living in Enumclaw?  NWS says freezing rain/rain/snow tomorrow, nothing to write home about, and then maybe 1-3 inches Tuesday.  I thought we were getting more tomorrow, and even more Tuesday...  This guy, is confused.

Nobody knows yet.  Details are still being ironed out, stay tuned............

[Ziess]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Through the gorge.  Where are you in the valley?

S/SE of Canby, I'm usually on the very edge of the gorge outflows in moderate events. 

[dhoffine]

Ah crap, they just changed it... LOL   

Sunday - 1 to 2 inches

Tuesday - 2 to 4 inches

 

 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

What are your thoughts on Thursday?

Still have Jan 2004 vibes? The upper levels must have been colder going into that no? We had a good 6+ inches of snow before changing to sleet or ZR.

It could definitely end up somewhat comparable, but even a coldest scenario with this event probably won’t be as entrenched as that low level air mass. It was a total beast. As it was, 2004 was pretty borderline at precip onset with 850mb temps at -2c or so. They hung there thanks to hardcore mid level wetbulb magic despite hefty height rises. Heights were actually pushing 560dm when precip arrived.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Deweydog

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Ziess said:

Excuse the newb here but is this air mass high enough to spill over the cascades or is just a gap event through the gorge? 

Just imagine if that wasn't a thing and the cascades couldn't block the cold air 

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Ziess said:

S/SE of Canby, I'm usually on the very edge of the gorge outflows in moderate events. 

Canby is a tough area to forecast as you are in the warm tongued area.  You usually get a quicker wind shift there.

[Cloud]

Of course, none of these would've matter if we just have a full-on regional arctic blast. And because of the current nature of how things are appearing, we are left with fighting for scraps... and even minor wobble to the systems have huge implications between snow and rain. Not really a fan of situations like these. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Of course, none of these would've matter if we just have a full-on regional arctic blast. And because of the current nature of how things are appearing, we are left with fighting for scraps... and even minor wobble to the systems have huge implications between snow and rain. Not really a fan of situations like these. 

That’s on you. You were in charge of ordering.

[Terreboner]

Fukk the Norad Santa Tracker.  We need a Norad Arctic Front Tracker.

[Brennan]

Seahawks are going throwback next year, and bringing back their 1990's helmets and uniforms.. I'm thinking the forum members who have been around for 10+ years should be allowed to wear their throwback names for a period of time... As a forum member who has been on these things since Old Farmers Almanac forum, and having take a years long hiatus... There are a handful of members whom I recognize, and a bunch of others I do not.... as I've spent more time on here lately i've KIIIIIND of been able to piece together some of the members just by the nature of their posting... 

It'd be nice to know who everyone is!!!!! And who was that one craaaaazy member on the forums from years ago that kept getting banned and creepily coming back with a different alias..?? 

[Ziess]

7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Just imagine if that wasn't a thing and the cascades couldn't block the cold air 

That would be amazing....

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

It'd be nice to know who everyone is!!!!! And who was that one craaaaazy member on the forums from years ago that kept getting banned and creepily coming back with a different alias..?? 

He's a bit better now.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Seahawks are going throwback next year, and bringing back their 1990's helmets and uniforms.. I'm thinking the forum members who have been around for 10+ years should be allowed to wear their throwback names for a period of time... As a forum member who has been on these things since Old Farmers Almanac forum, and having take a years long hiatus... There are a handful of members whom I recognize, and a bunch of others I do not.... as I've spent more time on here lately i've KIIIIIND of been able to piece together some of the members just by the nature of their posting... 

It'd be nice to know who everyone is!!!!! And who was that one craaaaazy member on the forums from years ago that kept getting banned and creepily coming back with a different alias..?? 

I used to be know as Deweydog back in the day if you couldn’t tell by the sarcasm.

[Kolk1604]

12 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Ah crap, they just changed it... LOL   

Sunday - 1 to 2 inches

Tuesday - 2 to 4 inches

 

 

I wouldn't surprised if you saw 8 inches on Tuesday, but it really depends on the track of the low. Probably won't know for sure until tomorrow or Monday. 

[Art_Digbee]

35 degrees and light rain all day so far up on Orcas. Wish it would just snow already...

[T-Town]

Snowing on the Browns-Ravens game. 

[Terreboner]

10 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Seahawks are going throwback next year, and bringing back their 1990's helmets and uniforms.. I'm thinking the forum members who have been around for 10+ years should be allowed to wear their throwback names for a period of time... As a forum member who has been on these things since Old Farmers Almanac forum, and having take a years long hiatus... There are a handful of members whom I recognize, and a bunch of others I do not.... as I've spent more time on here lately i've KIIIIIND of been able to piece together some of the members just by the nature of their posting... 

It'd be nice to know who everyone is!!!!! And who was that one craaaaazy member on the forums from years ago that kept getting banned and creepily coming back with a different alias..?? 

One crazy member??? There are multiple.

[Meatyorologist]

18z yorrow running. Anyone got the goods?

[TT-SEA]

Big improvement in snow for Tuesday...

[RentonHill]

[Nov1985]

18z ECMWF still gets the job done. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z yorrow running. Anyone got the goods?

You said the ICON right?  

[TT-SEA]

Add another 3 hours to catch end of precip on Tuesday evening...

[The Cats Meow]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big improvement in snow for Tuesday...

If it were to slide a little more south the folks in Portland get in on some light snow too.

[Timmy]

Just now, Hour364Please said:

If it were to slide a little more south the folks in Portland get in on some light snow too.

Tim is being greedy. Cmon Tim.

[RentonHill]

850s at hr90 vs 12z

[Cold Snap]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

850s at hr90 vs 12z

Looks a bit better on the 18z!

[Nov1985]

The "Tuesday" "low"

 

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big improvement in snow for Tuesday...

Nice.  How does Sunday into Monday morning look? 

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You said the ICON right?  

And there would be more than that with the ratios!

[yellowstone]

8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You said the ICON right?  

I’ve been told the ICON is the only model to trust when it comes to QPF. I want to believe!

[Doinko]

I'm disappointed I'll be missing those huge gorge winds on Thursday. This area also gets an enhanced east wind downsloping off of the west hills.

[Nov1985]

18z ECMWF final frame. Still good Wed 4 am

 

[Doinko]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It could definitely end up somewhat comparable, but even a coldest scenario with this event probably won’t be as entrenched as that low level air mass. It was a total beast. As it was, 2004 was pretty borderline at precip onset with 850mb temps at -2c or so. They hung there thanks to hardcore mid level wetbulb magic despite hefty height rises. Heights were actually pushing 560dm when precip arrived.

How cold do you think max temps could get for PDX? I'm hoping for a sub 30 high.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I'm disappointed I'll be missing those huge gorge winds on Thursday. This area also gets an enhanced east wind downsloping off of the west hills.

Are you going out of town?

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

5 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

I’ve been told the ICON is the only model to trust when it comes to QPF. I want to believe!

Believe! Trust me, I’m a doctor.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

42 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Papa and I are headed east to Coeur d'Alene this Friday. Could be in the middle of an ice storm with single digits east of the crest. Gon' be wild.

Would seek hard to imagine the atmospheric layer would be 30 degrees warmer than the surface.   Obviously a lot of uncertainty, NWS is really broad brushing now, but for now only mentioning snow for CDA, more likely Thursday night and highs Friday in the low 20s.

[joelgombiner]

BLI-YWL down to -7.3 mb.