PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Flow is not offshore on Tuesday morning per the ECMWF... strong south wind ahead of low.    It all comes down to low strength and track.

You just repeated what I said, but with a map. lmao

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What if the euro is wrong on the temp outputs? Just wanted to throw that out there because it's looking like the euro might be to mild on this airmass moving in.

I might be wrong as it’s not in my wheelhouse, but it seems like it’s pretty common for models to under estimate Fraser outflow surface temps in Whatcom County?

[MossMan]

Oh good, I’m under another phantom WWA! 

[thisisacreativename]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Root for the next 2-3 runs to sink that low south for Tuesday! Ya gotta believe! 18z GEFS trending colder more inline with the EPS. Crazy. It's not often we see the Euro more aggressive with an arctic blast/CAA it's always the opposite. WHAT just happened at the end of the Raiders/Patriots game! NEVER seen that!!!!

00z GFS in 3 hours 4 minutes

Does that count as a game-winning lateral?

[Kolk1604]

Did anyone see the 18z GEFS? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

EPS/GEFS are way colder than their operational models. I don't trust how much the Euro is moderating temps. 

I agree 100%. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic front blasted through Omak a bit ago. Now though Brewster, Bridgeport(Chief Joseph Dam), Douglas and nearing Wenatchee and north of Ephrata.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You just repeated what I said, but with a map. lmao

I can't keep up.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Did anyone see the 18z GEFS? 

Yep. This is getting LEGIT especially for the Columbia, the Gorge, and PDX/Vancouver metro!

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 5 minutes

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I might be wrong as it’s not in my wheelhouse, but it seems like it’s pretty common for models to under estimate Fraser outflow surface temps in Whatcom County?

Hmmmm

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'd bet 1k bux it won't be 39 degrees in bremerton on Tuesday. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Not sure if anyone posted this but I would really relax about the EURO. There are still MANY scenarios for this to work out for Seattle. It was one run. That’s over 50% of the members with 6+ Inches.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Arctic front blasted through Omak a bit ago. Now though Brewster, Bridgeport(Chief Joseph Dam), Douglas and nearing Wenatchee and north of Ephrata.

8 degrees at our property. 

[bishbish777]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

EPS/GEFS are way colder than their operational models. I don't trust how much the Euro is moderating temps. 

I hope you're right 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Snowfall amounts in metro Vancouver today ranged from under 2" to 11" (the latter in the foothills of the North Shore Mountains).

[Doinko]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

Not sure if anyone posted this but I would really relax about the EURO. There are still MANY scenarios for this to work out for Seattle. It was one run. That’s over 50% of the members with 6+ Inches.  

Control almost gives a foot

[Blizzard777]

Snow

wintery mix to be exact

coming down nicely 

[Meatyorologist]

Down to 32F now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Bellingham has now tied the coldest outflow at 19 degrees as last December.  

[TT-SEA]

Not like any traditional c-zone I have ever seen.  

[KingstonWX]

32 with a DP of 31. Snow is absolutely dumping and sticking. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Blizzard777 said:

Snow

Is it snowing at your house? I’m in gig harbor right now nothing here at the moment. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Oroville is having a delightful Sunday evening.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lynden is 16 degrees with a 34 mph wind. Very cold outflow and it is going to get colder.

[seattleweatherguy]

Bothell misses out on the winter weather advisory so I hope I can get at least an inch

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Oroville is having a delightful Sunday evening.

Good evening for granny to take the dog for a walk.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Lynden is 16 degrees with a 34 mph wind. Very cold outflow and it is going to get colder.

Beastly airmass

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Radar looks like it’s filling in from south now around Kent? Maybe trying to fill in between Des Moines and Seattle 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

I seem to be in the snow hole right now. Combined with warm Euro runs, I’m really not enjoying this event right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

4:50 PM Radar Update

[Jbolin]

Looks like the central sound is getting screwed again with this PSCZ (for a second time) in as many weeks. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Beastly airmass

Now Portland better see those outflow temps on Thursday/Friday

[T-Town]

No snow yet at Alderbrook but we are managing. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

Looks like the central sound is getting screwed again with this PSCZ (for a second time) in as many weeks. 

The Lynnwood snow magnet...

Lived in spite of it for over a decade now. You learn to get used to it.

[Terreboner]

Guys, I lived up there for many years and many times they issues these WWA after everyone thought things were over.  Once the initial front moves through the winds are going to align very well for N. King/S. Snohomish counties, hence the localized areas being targeted.

Later this evening things will appear to be breaking up and then this band will form in and around these areas and probably persist for a good 6-10 hours at varying strengths.  Seen it too many times.

[KingstonWX]

Been a long time since I remember a time where Kingston was right in the middle of a CZ snow event and not getting ripped off by the rest of you snow hogs or just getting rain. I'll take it, though I'm sure everyone else will get their payback on Tuesday. 

[Blizzard777]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Is it snowing at your house? I’m in gig harbor right now nothing here at the moment. 

Wind switched and now from the north 

it’s coming

snow and other frozen goodies 

36

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

No snow yet at Alderbrook but we are managing. 

Oh wow! Just beautiful 

[bishbish777]

Snowing pretty decently in downtown now 

[runninthruda206]

6 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Looks like the central sound is getting screwed again with this PSCZ (for a second time) in as many weeks. 

all these chances, all these flakes, no snow on the ground