PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Jbolin]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but it's raining. It's fuc*** raining.

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

I can't believe I'm saying this, but it's raining. It's fuc*** raining.

Where? My mom's basement?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, Perturbed Member said:

Mark just dropped the highs for Thursday and Friday by 10F+

Good forecast. Here is Steve’s. I think there’s a good chance PDX is only in the 20s on both Thu/Fri.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How does it compare to the 12z?

Doesn’t seem any warmer… 

[MikeInEverett]

Maybe we’ll have a 2/4/19 esque miracle and a surprise deformation band will pop up in the central sound in the middle of the night lol. I don’t think that one really showed up in the models. 

[SnowWillarrive]

Moderate snow and 31 degrees here. Probably have .5 inches on the ground. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Good forecast. Here is Steve’s. I think there’s a good chance PDX is only in the 20s on both Thu/Fri.

 

I think the high for Thursday will be a midnight. Would suck to have something like a 35 degree temp at midnight but thankfully it looks like we could stay cold into Friday as well

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point it wouldn’t shock me if PDX stays below freezing until Sunday morning. 

[Kayla]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That is crazy, that is about my all time low at my cabin in north east Washington.  Been to 20 below probably 8 times but 25 26 below only a few times.

-25 is nothing to sneeze at that is for sure! While I’ve never been in -40 temps before I am willing to bet that I won’t be able to tell the difference! Anything below -10 feels all the same to me, too D**n cold!!

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Small flakes in Burien but sticking to grass and some other surfaces

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

8 degrees at our property. 

Wen party? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point it wouldn’t shock me if PDX stays below freezing until Sunday morning. 

Ice storm coming up.

[TT-SEA]

Dry powdery snow here and appears to be falling in a way that indicates a north wind which is very unusual here.  We are very protected from the north wind... our precip usually comes with a SW wind or east wind or no wind at all.  

The snowfall rate seems to be lighter now than it was earlier.   And this type of snow does not impact my satellite dish like heavy wet snow so I can watch Sunday Night Football. 

[Kayla]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, this looks like it should deliver the coldest temps in a long time for many places in ID/MT/WY/CO. Euro showed your area reaching at least -35.

Some place in western MT will probably hit -50 with this.

Yeah, it’s gonna be a doozy! Gonna be a fun one to track from inside with a fire going!

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

So, even with the warmup on recent Euro models, does it seem likely we still get some snow later in the week with the colder air that moves in after Tuesday?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I think the high for Thursday will be a midnight. Would suck to have something like a 35 degree temp at midnight but thankfully it looks like we could stay cold into Friday as well

PDX will probably be good Thursday, from what I’ve seen they drop below freezing in the mid to late evening on Wednesday. It’s Eugene and to a lesser extent SLE that really need to worry about the midnight highs. Thursday is probably EUG only shot. SLE could potentially stay below freezing Friday too if this pans out like 2004. Probably only one sub freezing high up here as we get warm nosed Friday… Thursday looks very cold up here, as it looks like that initial blast is going to be spilling over the cascades too. Those EURO maps have been dropping us into the mid teens on Thursday morning. 

[bishbish777]

According to 00Z NAM, it doesn't stop snowing around Seattle through at least 5 AM tomorrow...

[lowlandsnow]

Huge snowstorm for the South Sound on the HRRR lesser totals farther north

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

You are just inside the colder portion of the airmass hovering north of us.  I'm at 32F and that is a bit warmer than I was a couple hours ago.  There seems to be almost no southerly movement now with the colder air.  It will be interesting to see how our low temps bottom out.  I'd like to have some bit of snow around for Christmas but that is starting to look challenging.

Yeah I feel like our odds of not seeing any snow accumulate this week is up to about 60% and climbing with each model run. Looks like another December 2009 all over again. 

[GHweatherChris]

LAME!

[lowlandsnow]

The storm is not even over and 10 inches for the south sound and 7 for Seattle

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX will probably be good Thursday, from what I’ve seen they drop below freezing in the mid to late evening on Wednesday. It’s Eugene and to a lesser extent SLE that really need to worry about the midnight highs. Thursday is probably EUG only shot. SLE could potentially stay below freezing Friday too if this pans out like 2004. Probably only one sub freezing high up here as we get warm nosed Friday… Thursday looks very cold up here, as it looks like that initial blast is going to be spilling over the cascades too. Those EURO maps have been dropping us into the mid teens on Thursday morning. 

Really hoping Eugene makes it.

PDX also hasn't seen a sub-30 high since 2017 which is on the upper end of stretches without one but I'd say that's more due to unfortunate seasonal timing. February 2021 would've probably had a few in the 20s if it was in January or February too.

[bishbish777]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

The storm is not even over and 10 inches for the south sound and 7 for Seattle

HRRR best model ever?

[Perturbed Member]

What is the PDX NWS smoking here? What warming trend?

Models through the
latter part of the week continue to show a wide spread of solutions,
which is still causing a fair amount of uncertainty within the
forecast. So, have continued to lean towards NBM model solution.
Even with a fair amount of uncertainty, an overall warming trend is
still being observed starting Thursday and continuing into the
holiday weekend.

...

However, both deterministic and ensemble models have
started to become more narrow in their solutions. Still, snow with
some freezing precipitation is expected for areas in the Northern
Willamette Valley, SW Washington and the Columbia River Gorge/Hood
River.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The NWS forecast doesn’t even make sense. I don’t need to get into all of it, but they are way to cold early in the week and probably too warm late in the week. They are going for a high of 37 at PDX on Tuesday, when model guidance says mid 40s. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

What is the PDX NWS smoking here? What warming trend?

Models through the
latter part of the week continue to show a wide spread of solutions,
which is still causing a fair amount of uncertainty within the
forecast. So, have continued to lean towards NBM model solution.
Even with a fair amount of uncertainty, an overall warming trend is
still being observed starting Thursday and continuing into the
holiday weekend.

...

However, both deterministic and ensemble models have
started to become more narrow in their solutions. Still, snow with
some freezing precipitation is expected for areas in the Northern
Willamette Valley, SW Washington and the Columbia River Gorge/Hood
River.

 

Who knows at this point. The discussions have been pretty uninformative the past few days for that event. I think Mark said he'd have a blog post by tonight or tomorrow morning so I'm wondering what he'll say

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

What is the PDX NWS smoking here? What warming trend?

Models through the
latter part of the week continue to show a wide spread of solutions,
which is still causing a fair amount of uncertainty within the
forecast. So, have continued to lean towards NBM model solution.
Even with a fair amount of uncertainty, an overall warming trend is
still being observed starting Thursday and continuing into the
holiday weekend.

...

However, both deterministic and ensemble models have
started to become more narrow in their solutions. Still, snow with
some freezing precipitation is expected for areas in the Northern
Willamette Valley, SW Washington and the Columbia River Gorge/Hood
River.

 

They are on crack…. Look at their zone forecasts and tell me if they make any sense. 

[Doinko]

Here's what Mark Nelsen has to say, makes a lot more sense in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/MarkNelsenKPTV/status/1604649210607194113

1) We've put the First Alert Weather Day logos on THURSDAY & FRIDAY on the 7 Day Forecast.  That means there's a good chance weather will impact your day during that time.  Especially Portland metro, Gorge, and lowlands from Longview to Eugene.

2) Models are in pretty good agreement that a classic setup for snow or freezing rain (mainly freezing rain) will be in place sometime Thursday through Friday in at least part of the metro area (or possibly all). The setup is when very cold air comes through the Columbia R. Gorge

3) Then warmer and moist Pacific air moves in overhead. Snow levels rise to around 7,000' or so by Friday in the Cascades! Most likely this will be a freezing rain event; an ice storm if we get significant amounts of it. We're still 4-5 days away, so not many details for now.

4) I'm confident that at least part of the metro area (and all of Gorge) has a big winter weather event on the way.  And of course this is a huge travel time leading to Christmas Eve on Saturday, so we'll be on top of it. I'll get a detailed blog post out Monday morning/midday

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point it wouldn’t shock me if PDX stays below freezing until Sunday morning. 

Definitely feels like it might be heading in that direction right now. 2004 vibes keep resonating louder and louder with this ******.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

Here's what Mark Nelsen has to say, makes a lot more sense in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/MarkNelsenKPTV/status/1604649210607194113

His forecast high is 9 degrees higher than the NWS on Tuesday and actually makes sense. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just got back to my house. WOW! 32 and snowing 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

What is the PDX NWS smoking here? What warming trend?

Models through the
latter part of the week continue to show a wide spread of solutions,
which is still causing a fair amount of uncertainty within the
forecast. So, have continued to lean towards NBM model solution.
Even with a fair amount of uncertainty, an overall warming trend is
still being observed starting Thursday and continuing into the
holiday weekend.

...

However, both deterministic and ensemble models have
started to become more narrow in their solutions. Still, snow with
some freezing precipitation is expected for areas in the Northern
Willamette Valley, SW Washington and the Columbia River Gorge/Hood
River.

 

Probably this warming trend:

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I feel like our odds of not seeing any snow accumulate this week is up to about 60% and climbing with each model run. Looks like another December 2009 all over again. 

My total snow this season even after today's half inch is still only 3/4".  Oh well, there is lots of winter left I hope.

[MossMan]

Must have clouded back up since I have gone up from 25.9 to 27.0 in the last 20min. But I’m too lazy to check and I have a dog on me. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just got back to my house. WOW! 32 and snowing 

Aren't you almost over a foot so far for the winter? Glad to see the South Sound donut hole on models be filled in

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Must have clouded back up since I have gone up from 25.9 to 27.0 in the last 20min. But I’m too lazy to check and I have a dog on me. 

What game are you watching there?  It's daytime.  

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely feels like it might be heading in that direction right now. 2004 vibes keep resonating louder and louder with this ******.

Didn't 2004 have a good 6-8" before the ice? That would be nice

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Speaking of seasonal totals, I’m currently at 8.7". I wonder what Kayla is up to.

[jcmcgaffey]

It’s one of those events so far…

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely feels like it might be heading in that direction right now. 2004 vibes keep resonating louder and louder with this ******.

What day did PDX finally mix out in 2004?