PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cloud]

I hope folks in W.WA aren't canceling their plans for this week because... we simply still do not know. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TonyP said:

How on earth is the difference so stark. 

sharp gradient and complex TPV dynamics

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Kissing the purple! 

[Gradient Keeper]

PSC(Pasco)-PDT(Pendelton) -3.4mb, PSC(Pasco)-HRI(Hermiston) -2.6mb arctic front about to cross into Northeast Oregon. Further south than modeled.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... at this range its really hard to not go with the ECMWF.   Particularly since the 12Z and 18Z and now 00Z runs were all basically the same.  

I really hate to bring up the busted windstorm of 2016... 

[Doinko]

Looks good so far for the major push of cold air through the Gorge

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... at this range its really hard to not go with the ECMWF.   Particularly since the 12Z and 18Z and now 00Z runs were all basically the same.  

Interesting it shows it’s 37 in Tacoma right now but it’s really 34 here. If it is running too warm then that could mean it’s scouring out the cold air too quickly. We should know by tomorrow it’s saying 37 for a high here. If it’s colder than forecast tomorrow maybe that changes things a bit. Either way it’s possible the euros too far north or we maybe switch back to snow at the end. 

[dhoffine]

LOL, the rug pull scenerio at the last moment, such a PNW thing

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I mean it did quit on next week until the GEM brought it back. 

We'll see. Looks like tomorrow and Tuesday we'll be watching temps and see who was right. 

This is a very second shenanigans and it's quite scary. 

[lowlandsnow]

I think a big reason for the different solutions is all the other models have it getting so much colder tonight and staying colder tomorrow than the ECMWF. The forecasted low temps on the ECMWF appear to be unrealistically high. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF does show a weak c-zone late Tuesday night...

 

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

I think a big reason for the different solutions is all the other models have it getting so much colder tonight and staying colder tomorrow than the ECMWF. The forecasted low temps on the ECMWF appear to be unrealistically high. 

Though the gfs is way to extreme with cold air in Eastern WA

[Doinko]

Just now, dhoffine said:

LOL, the rug pull scenerio at the last moment, such a PNW thing

It isn't even a rug pull really. Major low level cold is still coming on this run. The low placement is basically the same as the last run

[Cold Snap]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Interesting it shows it’s 37 in Tacoma right now but it’s really 34 here. If it is running too warm then that could mean it’s scouring out the cold air too quickly. We should know by tomorrow it’s saying 37 for a high here. If it’s colder than forecast tomorrow maybe that changes things a bit. Either way it’s possible the euros too far north or we maybe switch back to snow at the end. 

Wasn’t the Euro too aggressive with scouring out the cold air from the late November event? I only had a high of 33 when the Euro I think showed it warming to like 38 for me.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

PSC(Pasco)-PDT(Pendelton) -3.4mb, PSC(Pasco)-HRI(Hermiston) -2.6mb arctic front about to cross into Northeast Oregon. Further south than modeled.

It somehow skipped Spokane.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF does show a weak c-zone late Tuesday night...

 

Same with the RGEM

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 850s colder run!

[Cold Snap]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF does show a weak c-zone late Tuesday night...

 

I had a feeling a convergence zone would form behind Tuesday’s storm. Good to see that’s starting to be picked up on by the Euro!

[Meatyorologist]

IMO the Euro is too aggressive with the cold air scouring and doesn't have enough low suppression. This air mass is a beast and will throw a wrench into most conventional fcst means we've used this last decade

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS. I'll post the Day 5-10 later

[Doinko]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

IMO the Euro is too aggressive with the cold air scouring and doesn't have enough low suppression. This air mass is a beast and will throw a wrench into most conventional fcst means we've used this last decade

Surprise Portland snowstorm???? Lol I'm really reaching

[North_County]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I hope folks in W.WA aren't canceling their plans for this week because... we simply still do not know. 

Fortunately, I scheduled this upcoming week as a year-end vacation-time eater months ago.  So, the weather can do whatever it D**n-well wants, and I'll sit inside and watch it with a warm drink.

[Doinko]

Some amazing CAA

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is quite entertaining to watch from an outsider's perspective, I gotta say. It's like having been eliminated from the playoffs and watching other teams' playoff races.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

IMO the Euro is too aggressive with the cold air scouring and doesn't have enough low suppression. This air mass is a beast and will throw a wrench into most conventional fcst means we've used this last decade

Not sure about that.   The temps the ECMWF shows now are just about right.   Its currently 18 at BLI and 32 at SEA and between 32-36 south of there all the way to Olympia.   

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I really hate to bring up the busted windstorm of 2016... 

 

[Cloud]

EPS will be telling in a bit. 

This op run vs the 12z EPS. 

[Doinko]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is quite entertaining to watch from an outsider's perspective, I gotta say. It's like having been eliminated from the playoffs and watching other teams' playoff races.

Euro looks like you could get a high in the 20s on Thursday

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm just blown away by the persistence now with all models to blast in major arctic air so quickly into eastern Washington and not backing off.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just the Tuesday event... 4 p.m. Monday through 4 p.m. Tuesday

What timeframe does the snow start up this way? 

[Slushy Inch]

Such a weak low pressure with warm tongue like that, I don't think so.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is quite entertaining to watch from an outsider's perspective, I gotta say. It's like having been eliminated from the playoffs and watching other teams' playoff races.

The cold air machine gets revved on Wednesday into Wednesday night no matter what, the George being the faucet and the Willamette being the bowl, and it'll fill up my guy. You're gonna BREAK DAT SCHTREAK

[TT-SEA]

Highs Wednesday... slightly warmer for the Seattle area at least compared to 12Z run.

[Snownerd3000]

23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The 00z is running rn! Will the fallen king show the goods?

Sounds like something you should say to @FroYoBro

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

IMO the Euro is too aggressive with the cold air scouring and doesn't have enough low suppression. This air mass is a beast and will throw a wrench into most conventional fcst means we've used this last decade

I would imagine this having some significant implications as moisture arrives late-week...

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

EPS will be telling in a bit. 

This op run vs the 12z EPS. 

That 12Z run also includes all the snow that fell today.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure about that.   The temps the ECMWF shows now are just about right.   Its currently 18 at BLI and 32 at SEA and between 32-36 south of there all the way to Olympia.   

I gotta say... you certainly live and die by this model. 

[Slushy Inch]

Yesss, extend that cold.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What timeframe does the snow start up this way? 

Going before dawn on Tuesday

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That 12Z run also includes all the snow that fell today.

And?