PNW December 2022 - Part II

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...I hope I'm wrong about Seattle south not doing well tonight.  Just a hunch.

Despite the light to moderate snow here I am nervous. Hope some heavier showers arrive sooner. 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, MWG said:

Looks like that "deal" I made with PDX'ers for Tim's safe return (about a week ago) is coming to fruition.

Fuuuuuuuuuuu**

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

A few minutes ago on weather dot com 

Only over YOUR house. Everywhere else on the Island will have a nice, thick, white blanket on the ground tomorrow morning. You will see a scene like this:

Enjoy!

[Doinko]

Some forecasts for the ice storm in Portland. Mark Nelsen is going pretty aggressive, more than I thought he would. The NWS is completely onboard with the coldest day since December 1990. Rod Hill is more conservative it seems

 

 

[Brennan]

19* and snowing sideways here on Lake Whatcom. Looking out the window into the Christmas Lights on the house and snow flakes are blowing into the window. That is a rarity here at this location.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...I hope I'm wrong about Seattle south not doing well tonight.  Just a hunch.

By Seattle south, do you mean the downtown area southward or everywhere south of Snohomish county? I have my own ideas, just curious of what you think.

[SnowPlz]

God you guys, no need to be rude. Literally downgraded from storm watch to advisory with multiple forecasts saying more rain than snow. Bully vibes in here sometimes 

[snow_wizard]

You can sure where the moisture plume hits the colder/drier continental air.  The radar just explodes.

[Fircrest]

Any reports or predictions for SeaTac tonight? We are flying home from Palm Springs where it was a beautiful 68 degrees today. We'll be arriving at 10 pm. Any chance of runway issues?

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some forecasts for the ice storm in Portland. Mark Nelsen is going pretty aggressive, more than I thought he would. The NWS is completely onboard with the coldest day since December 1990. Rod Hill is more conservative it seems

 

 

The NWS is forecasting 22/13 on Thursday for my area. Seems a bit out there

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Despite the light to moderate snow here I am nervous. Hope some heavier showers arrive sooner. 

The thing I like the least is how so much of the moisture early in the game is north of Seattle.  When the models originally picked up on this it was a lot different.  This one stings a little bit.

I think we have a realistic shot at a couple of inches behind the low when the cold air collapses into this area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

The NWS is forecasting 22/13 on Thursday for my area. Seems a bit out there

Hmmmm. 24/16 at my place which makes sense. We ll get a nice blast but moderate quick. 

[Jbolin]

7 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

God you guys, no need to be rude. Literally downgraded from storm watch to advisory with multiple forecasts saying more rain than snow. Bully vibes in here sometimes 

A piece of advice. 

If you're going to make "statements" than can be quickly debunked, it will benefit you in the future to check/double check the validity of what you're reading/interpreting.

The members on this board are very quick to correct info that's false/misleading. 

The vibe in here can be harsh at times but is also very welcoming, (I've been here nearly 16 years), we are here to help, educate and further our passion/s.

Don't feel discouraged and don't let the "mood" of the board "sway" you.

If you're unsure, ask. Some of us are very knowledgeable and others are just learning. It's always better to be unsure and ask than to imply or insinuate.

We at one point were "new" as well.

Hope this helps. 

[Blizzard777]

39 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I just checked out the most recent soundings.  Shows no rain mixing in Seattle downtown and points north from what I've seen.  I checked Federal Way and it had a couple inches of snow but rain mixing in overnight some.

While I sleep it’s ok for the rain to do it’s thing….as long as when I wake it white out and coming down hard!  Then I shall laugh in the euros face

34.7*

edit…34.6

[Seattle]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing I like the least is how so much of the moisture early in the game is north of Seattle.  When the models originally picked up on this it was a lot different.  This one stings a little bit.

I think we have a realistic shot at a couple of inches behind the low when the cold air collapses into this area.

More shocking than any model or obs going into this event, is your last minute lack of optimism! Genuinely surprised.

[runninthruda206]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

By Seattle south, do you mean the downtown area southward or everywhere south of Snohomish county? I have my own ideas, just curious of what you think.

what are your ideas? How do you think we'll do north of downtown meaty?

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm. 24/16 at my place which makes sense. We ll get a nice blast but moderate quick. 

Yeah that probably makes more sense for your location. I don't see how we'll advect down to 13 degrees without precip. Either way 50mph+ wind gusts that the WRF is showing plus temps at least in the low 20s/teens should mean some extremely cold wind chills.

I'm in the blue bullseye in eastern Washington County. That's the strongest I've seen forecast gusts for my location on the WRF

 

[Blizzard777]

15 minutes ago, MWG said:

Love those words !  I’d also rather deal with him in real life then the flying monkeys from Wizard of Oz

[HuskyMaestro]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...I hope I'm wrong about Seattle south not doing well tonight.  Just a hunch.

Just feels like this has many hallmarks of the South Sound getting completely screwed yet again. The downgrade to an advisory, some rain around Olympia and Lakewood which I think could be a warm nose, the steer dropoff in snow from several inches in Seattle to a measly 1" for Tacoma if the worst end of the spectrum happens. All on top of a crappy day for me with other things. Hoping I'm wrong too but I feel like we're the PDX/Oregon City of the Puget Sound. Scores some snow only when everyone else scores, but otherwise it's terrible for situations like this event with a warm nose. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, runninthruda206 said:

what are your ideas? How do you think we'll do north of downtown meaty?

Precipitation is much heavier and covers a larger extent than modeled. Temps are down to the wet bulb saturated around 30F, radar is filling in further, and winds are northerly. Looks good for the first half of the event here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some forecasts for the ice storm in Portland. Mark Nelsen is going pretty aggressive, more than I thought he would. The NWS is completely onboard with the coldest day since December 1990. Rod Hill is more conservative it seems

 

 

We’re in for a big ice storm here in PDX Metro no doubt. Hopefully we get an inch or two of snow before it changes over. Ice looks like it will even be bad on the west side to.

 

[awright-31]

Just now, HuskyMaestro said:

Just feels like this has many hallmarks of the South Sound getting completely screwed yet again. The downgrade to an advisory, some rain around Olympia and Lakewood which I think could be a warm nose, the steer dropoff in snow from several inches in Seattle to a measly 1" for Tacoma if the worst end of the spectrum happens. All on top of a crappy day for me with other things. Hoping I'm wrong too but I feel like we're the PDX/Oregon City of the Puget Sound. Scores some snow only when everyone else scores, but otherwise it's terrible for situations like this event with a warm nose. 

I would agree, and add that when we do get hit, we get *hit*. I had 22” in 2/19, and close to a foot in both 2/21 and 12/21. I feel like the north sound tends to see more frequent, smaller snow events, but when we get a good snow maker, we do very well.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Heavier precip has appeared over the Kitsap and should be crossing the Sound soon.

[Cloud]

Good time to participate! Follow your instinct! Something swayed me to a "bust" vote. 

Edit: for clarity, for my area. 

 

[RentonHill]

If nobody posts the NAM then it didn’t happen

[Meatyorologist]

Looking at higher tilts, there's about to be a burst of heavier snowfall over the city in the next 15-30 mins.

[MossMan]

Just now, Cloud said:

Good time to participate! Follow your instinct! Something swayed me to a "bust" vote. 

 

I feel great! Still light snow and 22.8. 
DP 20. 

[HuskyMaestro]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Good time to participate! Follow your instinct! Something swayed me to a "bust" vote. 

Edit: for clarity, for my area. 

 

Instantly picking "It's gonna bust" so I can reverse jinx myself.

[Terreboner]

You can really see the brightening cloud tops as the real cold air advects right over Vancouver Island.  Gotta be some blizzard conditions in the high country up there.

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking at higher tilts, there's about to be a burst of heavier snowfall over the city in the next 15-30 mins.

Good, glad someone else caught that.

Thought I was really drunk for a sec. 

[Cold Snap]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I feel great! Still light snow and 22.8. 
DP 20. 

Your plow is going to be very happy tomorrow morning!

[MWG]

Better see a bunch of pictures tomorrow from you guys up north. Weather down here it's going to be boring for the next 2 weeks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We need the “care” emoji. 

[T-Town]

35 and a light mix here. 

[HoodCanalBridge]

Big flakes in downtown poulsbo on the waterfront.  No sticking on the road yet!

[Blizzard777]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Precipitation is much heavier and covers a larger extent than modeled. Temps are down to the wet bulb saturated around 30F, radar is filling in further, and winds are northerly. Looks good for the first half of the event here.

What is your current disposition?   Just curious from and earlier post on the face reveal and data exposed

Always appreciate your input regardless   

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We need the “care” emoji. 

 

[The Cats Meow]

I think the places that saw more cold air sweep down out of the north yesterday will be favored to get snow and maybe stay all snow.

Heck.  The Puyallup Valley didn't even go below freezing last night we dropped to 33.  Really? 33? After what was supposed to be a modified arctic front?  LMAO!!

Now we will sit back and hope something miraculous happens in the backwash as this sucker racing off the Pacific exits stage right.

So far it's been a great winter but this one being so close to epic and failing is hard to take.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

35 and a light mix here. 

Almost all snow here…the precipitation rate just isn’t all that heavy. I think once it gets heavier it’ll switch over. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Down to 28 degrees. light to moderate snow. Getting close to 1 inch already.