PNW December 2022 - Part II

[KingstonWX]

6 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

It's a joke dude

No joking during such a critical time period. It's against forum rules. I look forward to your incoming ban.

 

Oh wait...

[MossMan]

Not sure how accurate this is but I just saw this post on FB. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Not a fan of this GFS run 

Depends on perspective. Definitely suggests of a shorter but also more intense icing event for most. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Not a fan of this GFS run 

Thought other models differ so I suppose it's just a waiting game

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Not sure how accurate this is but I just saw this post on FB. 

Looks like the poster had a stroke there at the end.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Not a fan of this GFS run 

Very aggressive with the Friday warmup. Looks totally different.

[Front Ranger]

The Canadian speeds up the low across the Olympics, but otherwise doesn't look much different than its 12z.

[Blizzard777]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Nothing falling right now and 34 degrees. 

Light mix at the moment again and temp continues to slowly fall….33.8

wind calm 

[MossMan]

22.6 now. Going the wrong (very right) way! 

[Cold Snap]

Just measured 0.5” out of this event so far. If I get 0.5” more I’ll have what the Euro is showing for me through 7am tomorrow.

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

The Canadian speeds up the low across the Olympics, but otherwise doesn't look much different than its 12z.

Seems like everything speeding up is now the theme of the night.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS has Seattle above freezing by around 5 a.m. on Friday morning... and shows lots of sleet and freezing rain overnight Thursday.  

[Jbolin]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GFS is gonna be too cold and Euro is gonna be too warm.

And the ICON is juuuuuuuuust right.

Said no one

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Seems like everything speeding up is now the theme of the night.

Not the trend I was expecting... it seems like transitions are always delayed.    The jet extension is becoming more aggressive.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Busy place here. Seattle got snow.

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not sure how accurate this is but I just saw this post on FB. 

 

[lowlandsnow]

Looks like the heavier precip off the coast is starting to make its way inland 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

And the ICON is juuuuuuuuust right.

That might actually be the way it works out.   Germans for the win?  

[LowerGarfield]

36 minutes ago, icyasf said:

hey guys, i’ve been lurking for a while now but decided to make an account because i think it would be nice to have more oregon posters. i’m at 340 feet in west corvallis!

Did you get any snow that time maybe a month ago when Corvallis and OSU had like an inch of snow? That was pretty cool!

[Hawksfan2008]

GEM lands between the EURO and GFS. 

[MikeInEverett]

Roads in Everett are an ice rink. Just took a drive to the store and it’s super easy to slide around

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

GEM lands between the EURO and GFS. 

Voice of reasoning. 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

GEM lands between the EURO and GFS. 

Boooooo

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

GEM lands between the EURO and GFS. 

Some serious terrain bleed there... or North Bend will have 30 inches of snow by noon tomorrow.   Better get going!  

[Requiem]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Very aggressive with the Friday warmup. Looks totally different.

Not entirely worried about that as models always miss the cold air hanging on-- but I am worried about cold air getting less established on this side of the mountains leading to way more ice than we'd like...

[MossMan]

Deck update! 
22.6

[Cloud]

This honestly look like it SHOULD head south of the Olympics.  Like Tim said, it's the sfc details that matters the most here. 

[WildrootParable]

It feels weird to keep posting the same thing, but uh...it's still 30 degrees with steady light snow. 

The models y'all have posted are giving my area anywhere from 3 to 19 inches tonight, so place your bets now. What a weird event!

[lowlandsnow]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Very light snow here, heavy precip still offshore.

What type of precip is there now?

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

The radar shows hardly anything over my location. When might precip pick up again?

[Perturbed Member]

GEM is looking faster and more aggressive Thursday too. More organized precip coming in faster but also faster WAA. 

Both 00z GFS and GEM probably worse for getting some initial snow. Probably results in a higher impact/worse ice storm. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

What type of precip is there now?

There is no precip at all here right now.

[SnowWillarrive]

Temp between 31 and 32 here with occasional flurries. 

[Hawksfan2008]

I feel pretty safe here in North Bend but it’s not the same if others don’t get to experience it. The community element this forum has brought to my weather passion is awesome. Come on GFS! 

[Doinko]

Could someone post sleet/ice totals for the GEM and GFS?

[JW8]

I think the closest person to my location is @RentonHillTC, and we have either been too far North or too far South for every event this season. we finally kick that trend, but my confidence is dwindling.

Shoulda known it was over when the professionals jumped on board!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Figured stuff would start to go belly up sooner or later. 72 hours might as well be an eternity when major cold air is being forecast.

[dhoffine]

Nothing happening in Enumclaw, no rain, no snow, 31 degrees.

Is this another one of those miss by a couple dozen miles?  I'm losing hope..

[HoodCanalBridge]

@KingstonWX how's it looking in Kingston?  I go to work for 48 hours there starting tomorrow morning!

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Not entirely worried about that as models always miss the cold air hanging on-- but I am worried about cold air getting less established on this side of the mountains leading to way more ice than we'd like...

I think the ice is unavoidable at this point, unfortunately. Good news as dewey alluded to is that the juicier solutions will also lead to a quicker event as a whole as the stronger westerly mixing becomes more efficient at scouring us out.

Given the inversion-based nature of the cold in NW OR, I don't think there's going to be much if any surface cooling once the precip gets going. Wet bulb may still work us a quick favor by cooling the 850mb layer briefly towards the onset, but it should be a pretty rapid warming aloft after that and at that point with regards to the ice accumulation it's just a matter of the screaming easterlies can hold off the mixing aloft to hold the surface cold at <32. Should be a slow but steady incremental warmup all day on Friday at PDX, but I'm also not really buying the 32+ stuff the GFS shows.

Either way, 1/4"+ of ice is looking fairly likely for the whole metro area now, but on the same note I would say that 3/4" or so maybe would be on the absolute high end (less than February 2021 in a lot of places).