Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[winterfreak]

Meh. Not much change over this way. 

[Hoosier]

That's a nice step up for Chicagoland on the 00z GFS.

[jaster220]

Between land and sea, I expect the hazards list to be as colorful as a Christmas tree around the Lakes. 

[jaster220]

Just now, Hoosier said:

That's a nice step up for Chicagoland on the 00z GFS.

What'd be the odds if Chicago trended back to score identical to the '78 total 

[Niko]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I could see that being extended. Back to the west where cold and snow more likely, and even some more for IN & OH even. 

Cannot remember if/when I last saw or noticed Lk Erie under a Storm Watch. Usually by the time these strong winter storms come together, that lake is mostly ice covered. Prolly went Storm Warned by upgrade tho during some autumn gale a few yrs ago. 

.MARINE...
A storm watch has been issued for all of Lake Erie starting at 12Z
Friday with a current end time of 15Z Saturday for the western basin,
and 0Z Sunday for the rest of the lake. A very strong cold front
will move west to east across the lake Friday morning, ushering in
strong, southwesterly winds of 40 to 50 knots with higher gusts of
60 to perhaps 65 knots possible. These strong, southwesterly winds
will persist through Friday into Saturday. Low water is also
possible across the western basin of the lake, with current
forecasts suggesting water levels to fall as low as 3 to 4 feet
below the low water datum. Finally, in addition to the strong winds,
an anomalously-cold air mass will descend south across the Great
Lakes. Heavy freezing spray will be likely across much of the lake
beginning Friday afternoon with the threat persisting through
Saturday. A Heavy Freezing Spray Watch may be needed going forward.

Also, new data coming in now projecting the mix to change over to heavy snow even earlier now (after 10pm Thursday evening). This cold air is rushing in earlier and earlier.

[Madtown]

This would land in the historic category for WI....now what does good ol Euro do

[Hoosier]

Pretty interesting to see the NAM/ICON go one way and the GFS go another.

The models are having fits with how quickly to drop surface pressures farther south and really get that low deepening.  

[gabel23]

Jim Flowers is pretty good. He picked up on this a couple days ago. Looking at the wind barbs for tomorrow you can see how the convergence along the cold front turns from easterly to northwesterly. Strong turn in direction will squeeze out any moisture in the area. This arctic front is going to be something to see roll through. In my mind we are gonna see a very heavy band set up very similar to a line of thunderstorms. 

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

What'd be the odds if Chicago trended back to score identical to the '78 total 

I definitely wouldn't take it off the table yet.  For Chicago area, this setup is pretty sensitive to slight changes.

[Clinton]

0z GFS

 

[gosaints]

The UP looks fun.  

[gabel23]

You wanna talk trends and how to use models here you go. We are now 100% with only the king euro to go to show the banding showing up. So crazy; watching our local news station from 6 compared to 10 that band was showing up too. At 6 their in house model had it south of I-80. It now has expanded on the first look tonight further north. 

[BMT]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

You wanna talk trends and how to use models here you go. We are now 100% with only the king euro to go to show the banding showing up. So crazy; watching our local news station from 6 compared to 10 that band was showing up too. At 6 their in house model had it south of I-80. It now has expanded on the first look tonight further north. 

Rooting for you guys.  hope you get a nice surprise!

[tbone8]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS

 

Cripes, that is a lot of snow for me!

[gabel23]

Bands showing up nicely leading up into the upper lakes. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

You wanna talk trends and how to use models here you go. We are now 100% with only the king euro to go to show the banding showing up. So crazy; watching our local news station from 6 compared to 10 that band was showing up too. At 6 their in house model had it south of I-80. It now has expanded on the first look tonight further north. 

That’s a heavy band over my county in south central Nebraska. Whoa. 

[Grizzcoat]

31 minutes ago, shakjen said:

Just curious, how do they determine “accuracy”? Meaning, all models are more accurate closer to the event so is that accuracy 24 hours out or 48 or 72. And for a storm like this they were accurate pretty far out on wind and temp but WAY off on snow and timing. 

It's 120 hours out and I believe 500mb location of troughs and ridges. Pretty sure not to do with surface ridges and troughs.

[Jayhawker85]

1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

Bands showing up nicely leading up into the upper lakes. 

I need this map to verify please!

[winterfreak]

0z CMC:

[Madtown]

13 minutes ago, gosaints said:

The UP looks fun.  

Get out the mountain sleds and play in the POW!

[Bellona]

I can't wait to see pictures of this when it comes thru, especially to my east. Pretty sure I'll be dealing with a good blizzard myself, but to be in Michigan as it stands right now would be amazing!

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

0z CMC:

Models tonight are not bad except for the NAM.

[Bellona]

Just for lolz

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Models tonight are not bad except for the NAM.

Kinda just feels like noise. Small adjustments. All eyes on the EURO.

[tbone8]

Latest update on the watch...

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Kinda just feels like noise. Small adjustments. All eyes on the EURO.

The GFS ensembles improved for us for the first time in a couple days.  I like what I see down my way.

previous run:

0z members

 

[james1976]

I just returned to the MN home. The drive up was much MUCH better than last night. Although much colder (below zero the entire trip). All the hazard signs coming up 35 had "Winter Storm Warning beginning 9am". Now time to catch up in here and go read some AFD's!

[Niko]

0Z GEM

[winterfreak]

UKMET is ugly here.

[Andie]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

18z Euro is a beautiful hit for Detroit. It crushes the area.

 

Could we be looking at this:

I went through that in 1978 in Aurora, Ill.  
Dug snow for a week.  
Also, couldn’t leave fast enough.  It was then I realized I was a “dyed in the wool Texan.”  
Better suited for 102* than blizzards!

Texas looks to be in the clear but 9* Thursday night!  Hope Santa’s wearing his long John’s!  Woo!

[james1976]

37 minutes ago, Niko said:

0Z GEM

Nice 11" bullseye right over me

[Madtown]

Just ran across this

[winterfreak]

0z EURO is a no go. 1-3” it is.

[Money]

Euro 

[james1976]

MPX going with 20-22:1 ratios

[Hawkeye]

Euro is major ugly for the Chicago area.

As of now 3-6" seems a reasonable guess for CR.

[hlcater]

Looking at the guidance tonight, receiving most of our snow from FGEN and not the primary low may end up being a blessing in disguise.

[james1976]

14 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Looking at the guidance tonight, receiving most of our snow from FGEN and not the primary low may end up being a blessing in disguise.

Yup and atleast up here in the TC the wind should be fairly light during the main snowfall so measuring should be easier and ratios will be high. The real wind/blizzard conditions won't kick in til Thursday PM.

[Grizzcoat]

SREF snowfall plumes way up in C.IA-- up to 7.5 for KDSM. Probably wrong- but it's nearly a 100% increase in 24 hours.

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[gosaints]

16 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

SREF snowfall plumes way up in C.IA-- up to 7.5 for KDSM. Probably wrong- but it's nearly a 100% increase in 24 hours.

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Haha has Rochester at like 15 inches.  It should start to walk that back at 9z as the spread is huge and there are some giant numbers at the top end