Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[tStacsh]

For Michigan and other points east.  The Euro has trended east with the LP over southern Ontario, and the GFS most recently over Lake Huron.   That is a HUGE difference in what conditions we will see in West Michigan.  From terrible to outright extremely terrible.  

[mlgamer]

NWS TOP AFD mentions possible upgrade to blizzard warning for certain areas if conditions warrant...

"Consideration was given to a Blizzard Warning for at least a portion
of the area, but at this time uncertainty remains regarding
where/when the heaviest snow would coincide with the strongest
winds. If confidence increases on this aspect, parts of the area may
still be upgraded."

[Bellona]

Speaking on plumes, there is one that is just outrageous yet which is pushing it pretty high. That said, not a single one is below 6 inches. I'm thinking DMX 3-5, the 3 is rather low. I could be very wrong as well.

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z RGEM.  The bands are still there.

 

5 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

NWS TOP AFD mentions possible upgrade to blizzard warning for certain areas if conditions warrant...

"Consideration was given to a Blizzard Warning for at least a portion
of the area, but at this time uncertainty remains regarding
where/when the heaviest snow would coincide with the strongest
winds. If confidence increases on this aspect, parts of the area may
still be upgraded."

Good to see the RGEM not back down.  I'm on the road does the RGEM get this solution in a reasonable way? From the picture it seems LRC friendly.

[tStacsh]

I hope the Euro wins this storm.  I'm ok with a big blizzard it's showing.  The GFS would be an absolutely crippling blizzard here. 

[bud2380]

I took a look at the Cobb output to get a better idea of what wind speeds will be like during different times of this storm.  The initial band of snow will come through Cedar Rapids with temps in the low to mid 20s and fairly light winds.  This has the potential to pile up a little better if we get enough forcing.  The strong winds don't pickup until 5-6am.  Cobb also only shows 11:1 snow ratios vs. the much much higher Kuchera ratios.  

 

Below is 6z GFS for KCID

 

[jaster220]

DTX "Super Trough" for the ages

 Core narrative regarding the dynamics setup that has been well-
documented through previous AFDs this week still holds true
regarding the incredible momentum surge into central CONUS Thursday.
A large wavelength/high amplitude super-trough digs through the Deep
South and tilts negatively into the Great Lakes region with a +170
knot jet streak intersecting the 400-300 mb layer. Surface low
undergoes explosive bombogenesis Thursday evening as it lifts along
the arctic front. Central pressure INVOF 1003 mb expected over
central Indiana before landing somewhere near western Quebec as an
impressive 970 mb low Friday evening. Main concern with this system
still tied to the breadth and magnitude of the low-level kinematic
field as well-mixed profiles are advertised across forecast
soundings through most of Friday and Saturday. Extreme surface
gradient contraction arrives with the surge in very cold/dry arctic
air through the back half of the surface reflection with sustained
winds in excess of 30 mph at times. Given the presence of
accumulating snowfall, whiteout conditions develop with time Friday
afternoon into the overnight hours.

But given the tremendous energetics found within the lowest portion of
the column as the massive cutoff low becomes engulfed in the PV
anomaly, expect widespread 50+ mph gusts and blowing snow to create
blizzard conditions. Again, the blizzard conditions were the main
driver in deciding to issue a Winter Storm Watch.

LOL, this wasn't a "storm to watch" if it wasn't windy even if at Christmas Eve (rolls eyes)

[bud2380]

GFS cut totals dramatically from last night's 00z run.  Really can't even trust this model at this point.

 

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I hope the Euro wins this storm.  I'm ok with a big blizzard it's showing.  The GFS would be an absolutely crippling blizzard here. 

I think split the diff for over mby. It's wait-n-see it unfold time. Where's that "ITS HAPPENING" gif??

[Clinton]

12z GFS

[OmahaSnowFan]

[mlgamer]

42 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

Good to see the RGEM not back down.  I'm on the road does the RGEM get this solution in a reasonable way? From the picture it seems LRC friendly.

One thing is the RGEM continues to maintain the primary SLP in the southern plains rather than placing it quickly into the upper midwest/great lakes region. The subsequent track seems similar to 11/4, to me anyway. Of course, other parameters differ this time around.

[Clinton]

Slightly better tilt on the CMC vs 0z run.  Should do well for KC.

[tStacsh]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I think split the diff for over mby. It's wait-n-see it unfold time. Where's that "ITS HAPPENING" gif??

You're definitely in the game now for more snowfall at least, especially if the Euro verifies.  

[bud2380]

Canadian would make a lot more people happy.

 

[winterfreak]

Main band south of us on the 12z CMC. 

[gosaints]

thats gonna be a nowcast in respect to that band

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

You're definitely in the game now for more snowfall at least, especially if the Euro verifies.  

Detroit Metro just doesn't get these kinds of conditions. Like NEVER besides maybe Jan '78 bliz. Still not expecting much accums here in Wayne Cnty, but the combo effects will be f'real in such a balmy city-scape.

[james1976]

Started snowing here a while ago. Just a quarter inch so far. Flakes are tiny. Temp is -5!!

[jaster220]

6z GFS at 12z Friday would be equiv to 12z 1-26-78. Just incredible

[gabel23]

What was supposed to be freezing drizzle falling is light pixie dust. I'll take it, will see how the main band sets up in my area. Gonna be nervously watching it like a hawk. I just want enough to be blown around by the arctic attack! 

[james1976]

MPX slight tick up for me now calling for 6-9"

[tbone8]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

I hope the Euro wins this storm.  I'm ok with a big blizzard it's showing.  The GFS would be an absolutely crippling blizzard here. 

Ya, could be a bad deal for me as well...

[Hawkeye]

One issue with this storm is there just isn't much of a moisture feed until it reaches the eastern lakes and wraps up.  An open gulf would have helped.  We need troughs to dig down into the southern Rockies and then pull up loads of deep gulf moisture as they eject into the central US.

[Niko]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

6z GFS at 12z Friday would be equiv to 12z 1-26-78. Just incredible

Just amazing!!!

[jaster220]

GFS last 5 runs. Very consistent SLP placement w/slow ticks upwards in strength

 

[winterfreak]

Comical:

[Hawkeye]

The enhanced band through Iowa is there on all models.  However, some models have it centered through Cedar Rapids while others have it a bit farther north, with CR on the southern edge.

[FV-Mike]

LOT upgraded to WSW

[indianajohn]

I’m not an expert by no means but the complexity of this storm and the back and forth from all the models, Would a directional change of 100 miles one way or another play a roll where the bullseye would be? Obviously weather isn’t an  exact science just curious if a 50-100 mile directional move would make a difference in Chicago/Indiana since we are pretty much across the lake where bullseye currently sits.. 

[tbone8]

44 minutes ago, Niko said:

Just amazing!!!

I dug up the archives for Jan 26-28 1977 and attached hi res pics, enjoy...

 

 

Edit, ha, I dug up the wrong year however the 28th of Jan 1977 was a significant blizzard in the US

Edited December 21, 2022 by tbone8
wrong date

[East Dubzz]

6 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

I’m not an expert by no means but the complexity of this storm and the back and forth from all the models, Would a directional change of 100 miles one way or another play a roll where the bullseye would be? Obviously weather isn’t an  exact science just curious if a 50-100 mile directional move would make a difference in Chicago/Indiana since we are pretty much across the lake where bullseye currently sits.. 

I don't think you're going to see a shift that large at this point in time. 

[bud2380]

47 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

One issue with this storm is there just isn't much of a moisture feed until it reaches the eastern lakes and wraps up.  An open gulf would have helped.  We need troughs to dig down into the southern Rockies and then pull up loads of deep gulf moisture as they eject into the central US.

I think for us, if by 6am we have 2-3" from the lead band that's going to be good news here, and then probably 1-2" more as the cold front moves through and that's when conditions will deteriorate. As long as we get a White Christmas out of it with at least a few inches on the ground (albeit bare ground in some spots and 2 foot drifts in others), I'll be satisfied.  Sadly this storm just didn't pan out as well as it looked for awhile.  But better than nothing.  

[Hawkeye]

Crap.  The HRRR was already one of the northern models with the lead wave this evening.  It is trending even farther north.

[Bellona]

Blizzard warning going up. Arx has issued. Dmx winter storm until tomorrow noon, blizzard warning from noon until 6am Sat. I still think 2-5 inches is low. 5 seems more reasonable to me. 

[chances14]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

6z GFS at 12z Friday would be equiv to 12z 1-26-78. Just incredible

that's the kind of storm you see in fantasyland range, not 60 hours out. Just incredible

[tbone8]

Blizzard Warning just posted... Wow...

[Icewoz]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Detroit Metro just doesn't get these kinds of conditions. Like NEVER besides maybe Jan '78 bliz. Still not expecting much accums here in Wayne Cnty, but the combo effects will be f'real in such a balmy city-scape.

Glad to know there is someone else that feels the way I do. I've secured some things around the house just to "play-it-safe"., but SEMI just doesn't get any notable weather like other parts of the country. 

We've had many windy days over the past few years, which is something new that's been happening (and nothing really severe as far as winds go but enough to be noted) so I'm continuing with all of the plans I've had in place for Friday and Saturday because we've gone through this hype before.

My rule is, look at the models when they first come out and reduce that intensity by 75-80% and that's what you'll get.

[uticasnow]

3 minutes ago, chances14 said:

that's the kind of storm you see in fantasyland range, not 60 hours out. Just incredible

I just don't see this having much moisture to deliver  large snow amounts.  Blizzard conditions probably, but only about

2-4" blowing around will be bad enough.

[tbone8]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

6z GFS at 12z Friday would be equiv to 12z 1-26-78. Just incredible

Ok, here is the correct image of the 78 blizzard...