November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[bainbridgekid]

That will not happen until tomorrow morning.

 

HRRR is pretty sparse with precip tomorrow morning... looks very light.

The WRF has it due South of Seattle at 1 AM, though the operational is slightly slower.

 

These lows tend to move through slower than progged. I am mainly watching the 4AM-10AM time period here.

 

[snow_wizard]

Jim, how much snow do you think you'll get?

 

I'm hoping for an inch.  Two is possible I suppose.

[snow_wizard]

I could see Jim's area seeing some light accumulations. 

 

Backwash behind a low tracking south of here is usually a good bet.  The models are usually too light with precip is those cases.  

That is what made it snow here on New Years 2004.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Backwash behind a low tracking south of here is usually a good bet.  The models are usually too light with precip is those cases.  

That is what made it snow here on New Years 2004.

 

Yeah that happened all the way down to Eugene with that event and there was tons of very cold air nearby. A bit of a different animal. 

[Geos]

I wouldn't expect things to really start cooling off till closer to midnight. Probbaly mainly steady in the mid-upper 30's till then.

 

It always takes quite a while for winds to really turn Northerly in these setups. Doesn't usually happen till the low moves East enough to be about due South of us.

 

It did cool off 0.5 degrees or so just because it's darker now. But yeah I don't expect anything under 35 until late tonight. Sitting at 36.8 right now.

 

Wind is more east now here too.

[HighlandExperience]

 

I've found the HRRR to be terrible more than a few hours out.

 

 

Ya the HRRR is terrible. I don't remember it performing very well during our big snow last season. 

[DareDuck]

Down to 39 now with some sunbreaks for the first time all day. 

37 with a DP of 19 here. Just need some moisture overnight. 

[Jbolin]

Rain

[GHweatherChris]

Rain

I can confirm, all rain here.

[TT-SEA]

Ya the HRRR is terrible. I don't remember it performing very well during our big snow last season. 

 

For snow... not good.

 

For general precip location and intensity... not bad.

[MossMan]

I can confirm, all rain here.

What is your current temp?

[Bryant]

[GHweatherChris]

What is your current temp?

39, I am not expecting anything out this way though so...

[wxmet]

I can see the ECMWF being right (warm low level temps) resulting in trace amounts for the WPSL. This really comes down to a nowcast monitoring trends overnight as they unfold. When does the CAA begin, position of the low, available moisture, etc. 

[Geos]

36/35 here. Just need a little CAA.

 

By midnight the north half of the Seattle metro will start receiving air from the north.

 

[bainbridgekid]

 

I can see the ECMWF being right (warm low level temps) resulting in trace amounts for the WPSL. This really comes down to a nowcast monitoring trends overnight as they unfold. When does the CAA begin, position of the low, available moisture, etc. 

 

2 degrees in either direction will make the difference between no snow below 800 feet and several inches all the way down to sea level.

 

Welcome to forecasting snow in the Pacific Northwest!

[Geos]

2 degrees in either direction will make the difference between no snow below 800 feet and several inches all the way down to sea level.

 

Welcome to forecasting snow in the Pacific Northwest!

 

If we tap the cold air like we did early Friday morning, we're in business.

 

No doubt if this was a couple weeks later we'd be looking at warning criteria snows.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Do you guys think if it was December 4th instead of Nov. 4th it would be snow down here?

[bainbridgekid]

If we tap the cold air like we did early Friday morning, we're in business.

 

No doubt if this was a couple weeks later we'd be looking at warning criteria snows.

We'd probably be looking at a 2/5/17 repeat.

 

Seems like that was a pretty similar setup. Lots of cold rain/nonsticking snow during the day and well into the evening before it finally started sticking and piling up that time.

[MossMan]

Great time for the radar to go down...

[Deweydog]

Do you guys think if it was December 4th instead of Nov. 4th it would be snow down here?

Definitely. It would be one of our classic southerly flow, warm sector snowstorms in the PNW lowlands.

[MossMan]

Great time for the radar to go down...

And it’s back...think NWS Seattle is just messing with us weenies!

[TT-SEA]

Snow stopped about 2 hours ago and its been dry since... now starting to rain.  

[Geos]

Right at 36.0 here. Very light rain, almost a drizzle now.

[TT-SEA]

Huskies - Ducks game is on!   The national broadcaster said at the start that this is "exactly what you expect in Seattle at this time of year"  and then said it was 38 and raining.   Does he not know this is historic??   I was expecting them to reference this extremely unusual weather and how very rare and special it is.     

[HighlandExperience]

2 degrees in either direction will make the difference between no snow below 800 feet and several inches all the way down to sea level.

 

Welcome to forecasting snow in the Pacific Northwest!

I wish it was December 5th instead

[TT-SEA]

I wish it was December 5th instead

 

Or December 25th. 

[HighlandExperience]

Or December 25th. 

 

True. It just sucks because this climate is so crappy. Who knows if we get a set up this good again with the low perfectly placed. Tis isn't Duluth 

[TT-SEA]

True. It just sucks because this climate is so crappy. Who knows if we get a set up this good again with the low perfectly placed. Tis isn't Duluth 

 

I believe in the repeating patterns theory.   It will happen again... maybe a couple times.

[seattleweatherguy]

Think it's raining at husky stadium in seattle?

[Deweydog]

I believe in the repeating patterns theory. It will happen again... maybe a couple times.

[TT-SEA]

Think it's raining at husky stadium in seattle?

 

It is!  

[TT-SEA]

MM5 NAM makes me think the backwash stuff might be in the form of drizzle tomorrow afternoon even up here.

 

Not very impressive with the cold air coming in behind the low.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Rain/snow mix at my house with a temp of 35.

 

Plain ol rain in Snoqualmie Valley with a temp of 38.

 

Pretty much all rain here as well and 35.

[TT-SEA]

I'm surprised you are getting just rain. I'm up on Redmond Ridge right now and it's a rain/snow mix here as well.

 

All rain... very light.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Definitely. It would be one of our classic southerly flow, warm sector snowstorms in the PNW lowlands.

Lol. Just meaning it could most likely be 5-10 degrees colder.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Lol. Just meaning it could most likely be 5-10 degrees colder.

And perhaps the cold air would push the low a little further south .

[luvssnow_spokane]

Reporting in... 38 and moderate rain @ 550’

[Kayla]

Lol. Just meaning it could most likely be 5-10 degrees colder.

 

This low track is not a track you want for PDX snow, anytime of year.

[bainbridgekid]

Positive splat test in MLT.

 

Car thermometer said 34 but it seems to always run a couple degrees too cold.