December Weather In the PNW

[umadbro]

So you're completely hopeless?

My mother said that to me repeatedly while growing up

[wx_statman]

Doesn't look to change in January, either.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

You mentioned the pattern looking like 1981 earlier - that was the warmest Jan on record in McGrath.

[Gradient Keeper]

This winter is really interesting. Models are struggling more than I have seen since my career began a few decades ago (that is even in the short term).  And, if you can't get the short term right, the long term won't fare any better unless it is all by luck.

 

I'll be watching the models closely. With all the very cold air really not too far off to the northeast of the area, the opportunities for a nice surprise will continue. 

 

Bottom line, don't give up hope!

I couldn't agree more. Even the usual trusty ECMWF Op/EPS has shown too much variability. I am always optimistic, or cautiously optimistic.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 48 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 37. Couple add a couple more freezes to the December tally at least.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Looks like near whiteout conditions in the eastern Fraser Valley today (this is the highway a little to the west of Hope):

 

I can almost see Brian dennehy harassing sylvester Stallone from here.

[Front Ranger]

You mentioned the pattern looking like 1981 earlier - that was the warmest Jan on record in McGrath.

 

Interesting. But it was preceded by their coldest December on record...just a bit different than this year. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nice long range runs can have the effect of lifting one's spirits, but I wouldn't read too much into them...

That's true too. I'm happy I got a few inches of snow on Christmas Eve. If this is it for Winter then at least I got something. Some winters I get nothing.

[wx_statman]

Interesting. But it was preceded by their coldest December on record...just a bit different than this year. 

 

Indeed.

[Phil]

A busted forecast is a lot better than a busted condom.

 

#MLK

#18yearsofchildsupport

I’ve had both happen, and it really does depend on the outcome.

[TT-SEA]

Arctic air is entrenched down here now... just 2 more degrees and Snoqualmie Pass will get back down to freezing!   Very impressive for the end of December.    <_>

[weather girl]

It's going to flip at some point.  It's just the law of the indices.  I just hope it's before spring or we're in for a really miserable winter followed by a really miserable spring.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A year ago today I was about to start a streak of over a week of sub-freezing highs.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Again, there has been a strong N/S gradient. The Northern Rockies precipitation has been well above average. Snowiest December on record here in Bozeman.

I have been reading your posts in the Mountain West thread, and have noticed that the far north (Montana, etc.) has fared much better than most of the Intermountain West and Southwest regions including California.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 33 now. 

[MossMan]

Arctic air is entrenched down here now... just 2 more degrees and Snoqualmie Pass will get back down to freezing! Very impressive for the end of December. <_>

Down to 28 in Sumas!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40 and going to be foggy tonight. Still lots of ground moisture.

[Jesse]

They've been crushing it most of this month. McGrath is sitting at a 20.1 average as of the 29th. Warmest December on record is 10.7 degrees. You do the math. Long term mean is -5.6 avg.

That’s crazy. I had no idea the warmth had been so extreme up there. Are other places running similar anomalies?

[wx_statman]

That’s crazy. I had no idea the warmth had been so extreme up there. Are other places running similar anomalies?

 

Not quite as extreme as McGrath. Historically warm nonetheless with records about to fall in a number of places. Some are about to get crushed. Kotzebue is at 19.2F versus a standing record of 12.9F for December. Barrow is averaging 5.9F, standing record is 0.6F. Tanana is sitting at 12.6F, record is 7.4F.

[Guest El nina]

I think they had a cold November though. And SE Alaska has been cold, I saw Ketckikan was 7 yesterday morning. Interior Yukon is cold too, -45 this morning at Dawson.

Barrow, AK had it's warmest November on record this year. They averaged 17.2° which was 16.4° above average. They beat the previous record by 1.9° which was set in 1950.

[Jesse]

Not quite as extreme as McGrath. Historically warm nonetheless with records about to fall in a number of places. Some are about to get crushed. Kotzebue is at 19.2F versus a standing record of 12.9F for December. Barrow is averaging 5.9F, standing record is 0.6F. Tanana is sitting at 12.6F, record is 7.4F.

Insane.

[Front Ranger]

Crazy temp swings in Cheyenne, WY today. Went from 17 at 11 am to 54 at noon, then from 54 at 4 pm to 17 at 5 pm.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCYS.html

[TigerWoodsLibido]

All that record warmth in Alaska and no polar troughing here to show for it.

 

#WastedBlock

[Guest El nina]

All that record warmth in Alaska and no polar troughing here to show for it.

#WastedBlock

It's warmer than normal everywhere in the world except for the east coast. They never lose.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

00zzzzzzzz is running

[ShawniganLake]

00zzzzzzzz is running

Boring

Southerly

Flow.

[wx_statman]

Crazy temp swings in Cheyenne, WY today. Went from 17 at 11 am to 54 at noon, then from 54 at 4 pm to 17 at 5 pm.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCYS.html

 

I like this format better:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kcys&num=24&raw=0&banner=off

 

Really makes the numbers pop. Also, looks like they fell 34 degrees in 18 minutes.

[Kayla]

Crazy temp swings in Cheyenne, WY today. Went from 17 at 11 am to 54 at noon, then from 54 at 4 pm to 17 at 5 pm.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCYS.html

 

Even more of a dramatic temp profile near Big Sky, MT today as that Arctic front fluctuated right over the area through the morning hours today. This location is only about 30 miles from me as the crow flies and my temp profile today was 26F/-6F. 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F1650&num=48&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

 

Pretty dynamic temps even behind the front today. Gotta love that Arctic air. 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=tfx&sid=KEKS&num=72&raw=0

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/256ee0o.png

[Front Ranger]

Even more of a dramatic temp profile near Big Sky, MT today as that Arctic front fluctuated right over the area through the morning hours today. This location is only about 30 miles from me as the crow flies and my temp profile today was 26F/-6F. 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F1650&num=48&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

 

Pretty dynamic temps even behind the front today. Gotta love that Arctic air. 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=tfx&sid=KEKS&num=72&raw=0

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/256ee0o.png

 

Those are some crazy swings within a few hours, but I wouldn't call it more dynamic than a 37 degree rise in one hour, followed by a 37 degree drop in one hour - in the same day.

 

31 degree drop in 20 minutes is impressive, but Cheyenne pulled off a 34 degree drop in 18 minutes. 

[Kayla]

Those are some crazy swings within a few hours, but I wouldn't call it more dynamic than a 37 degree rise in one hour, followed by a 37 degree drop in one hour - in the same day.

 

31 degree drop in 20 minutes is impressive, but Cheyenne pulled off a 34 degree drop in 18 minutes. 

 

Ha, its all a competition with you isn't it?!

 

Point was, 41F to 10F to 21F all within 40 minutes. More dynamic within the hour. 

[MossMan]

Certainly seems like the models are pretty lost after about 5 days out. Quite different progressions on each run.

[weather girl]

FWIW, Weather Channel is all in:

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Ha, its all a competition with you isn't it?!

 

Point was, 41F to 10F to 21F all within 40 minutes. More dynamic within the hour.

I get the sense you're pretty competitive, too.

[liquidsnow]

 

FWIW, Weather Channel is all in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's all bullshit.

[Kayla]

I get the sense you're pretty competitive, too.

 

Guilty! 

[Guest El nina]

 

FWIW, Weather Channel is all in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They posted one yesterday that showed above normal temperatures in the PNW.

[weather girl]

They posted one yesterday that showed above normal temperatures in the PNW.

 

Picture or it didn't happen.  (I'm kidding.) 

[Kayla]

GFS has sure been a hot mess lately. From a Niño back to a Niña pattern in 24 hours!

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS has sure been a hot mess lately. From a Niño back to a Niña pattern in 24 hours!

Yup!

 

0z GEM looks pretty decent-good at day 10. Once that eastern US trough kicks out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Certainly seems like the models are pretty lost after about 5 days out. Quite different progressions on each run.

Yup.

 

0z ECMWF in 51 minutes

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

FWIW, Weather Channel is all in:

 

 

 

 

 

Here is part of what they said:

 

"

One factor that favors a milder weather pattern returning east of the Rockies is a greater influence of the ongoing La Niña event on the atmosphere as we head deeper into winter.

"La Niña forcing tends to favor colder risks early and warmer risks in the eastern U.S. as the winter progresses," said Crawford.

 

That warming is typically associated with upper-level high-pressure systems that become established in the Southeast later in winter during La Niña.

As a result, the core of the coldest temperatures tends to shift towards the Northwest due to upstream effects on the jet stream.

The January temperature outlook calls for below-average temperatures in the Northwest due to this expectation.