January Weather In the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

I have to wonder why some people follow the models here.

Good run = bitching cause it won’t happen

Mediocre run = bitching cause it’s only marginally good

Bad run = bitching cause it’s not cold.

 

Why do these people bother.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I just told my wife and son.

That should’nt matter, they probably don’t listen to you anyway.

[DareDuck]

I have to wonder why some people follow the models here.

Good run = bitching cause it won’t happen

Mediocre run = bitching cause it’s only marginally good

Bad run = bitching cause it’s not cold.

 

Why do these people bother.

#BSF would say reverse psychology.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have to wonder why some people follow the models here.

Good run = bitching cause it won’t happen

Mediocre run = bitching cause it’s only marginally good

Bad run = bitching cause it’s not cold.

Why do these people bother.

Because we enjoy bitching... duh!!

[Gradient Keeper]

ECMWF surface map shows temps falling through the afternoon on day 10.... with some lowland snow.   An actual arctic front.  

 

 

Surface map shows 19 at BLI and 30 at SEA by late morning.   

Nice find and post.

 

--

12z GEM in 8 hours 42 minutes

[TT-SEA]

This doesn’t look much like the EPS that you referred to a dozen times showing the ridge overhead and arctic air blasting into Ontario.

 

 

The EPS locked in on the extreme blocking last week.   It has been very consistent and now its being played out in the operational models.   I have been saying for 2 days that this smells like retrogression.   Devil is the details.   A very amplified pattern like this can quickly evolve into something really good.   I said that way back on Sunday or Monday of this week.    

 

I will continue to track the EPS like a hawk because it has been all over this very amplified situation since it came into its range.    More maps incoming!   

[pscz1140]

I just told my wife and son.

 

I'm going to tell my whole class first thing tomorrow.

 

It's like Christmas morning for them whenever I mention "Eurasian wavebreak" and "full latitude block."

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Enjoy the eye candy... it may be gone 24 hours from now

 

BAADC306-611E-4855-8805-58AE137EC4B6.png

SCORE!

[TT-SEA]

I just told my wife and son.

 

 

I just ran into my kids' bedrooms screaming that an arctic blast is coming and we should expect 6-8 inches of snow and highs in the 20s.   

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

The EPS locked in on the extreme blocking last week. It has been very consistent and now its being played out in the operational models. I have been saying for 2 days that this smells like retrogression. Devil is the details. A very amplified pattern like this can quickly evolve into something really good. I said that way back on Sunday or Monday of this week.

 

I will continue to track the EPS like a hawk because it has been all over this very amplified situation since it came into its range. More maps incoming!

Big warm ridge.

[BLI snowman]

Ideally though we're really going to need to see the PNA get up to +3 or +4 before we can start the full optimism wave.

[Phil]

Ideally though we're really going to need to see the PNA get up to +3 or +4 before we can start the full optimism wave.

That’s not nearly high enough, dude. Needs to be at least up around +6, ideally +7 to be on the safe side.

[Deweydog]

Ideally though we're really going to need to see the PNA get up to +3 or +4 before we can start the full optimism wave.

Along with a nice jet retention.

[TT-SEA]

It interesting to note that the ECMWF control run has been showing something similar for a couple days... and now the GEM and ECMWF operational run went in that same direction.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Day 10 at 4 PM shows temps in the mid 20's North Sound, upper 20's to around 30 for the rest of Western Washington, and mid to upper 30's Portland south. Teens in Eastern Washington.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to tell my whole class first thing tomorrow.

 

It's like Christmas morning for them whenever I mention "Eurasian wavebreak" and "full latitude block."

 

You actually use that terminology?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 10 BANG!

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018012500/240/500h_anom.na.png

Day 10 is a score! Huge improvement.

 

The Control run was right after all!

[TT-SEA]

Big warm ridge.

 

That was another possibility.    Actually could switch back to that with no warning.    Relatively minor shifts in a very amplified pattern.   

[Jesse]

You actually use that terminology?

This level of gullibility explains to me why you are a Trump supporter.

[Deweydog]

Day 10 at 4 PM shows temps in the mid 20's North Sound, upper 20's to around 30 for the rest of Western Washington, and mid to upper 30's Portland south. Teens in Eastern Washington.

41 at SeaTac.

[TT-SEA]

The Control run was right after all!

 

Maybe.

 

We will all be bowing to the control run if this verifies.   

[ChilliwackBCwx]

I just told my wife and son.

I just told my ex

[snow_wizard]

A few thoughts if this does happen.

 

1. Another win for the sub 1000mb Darwin pressure theory.

2. The tropics said the models had to change.

3. My NPS index saying a major blast was highly likely this winter will be vindicated.

4. I'm thankful this is still early enough for a really meaningful event.

[TT-SEA]

41 at SeaTac.

 

Not this time!

 

00Z ECMWF shows 27 at SEA at 4 p.m. with snow on the ground and still falling that day.  

[Phil]

That was another possibility. Actually could switch back to that with no warning. Relatively minor shifts in a very amplified pattern.

I’m probably gonna get trolled off this forum when it does switch back to ridging and people need a internet punching bag.

[snow_wizard]

This level of gullibility explains to me why you are a Trump supporter.

 

That's why I asked.  I have learned to never assume one way or the other until you check it out.

 

Another thing to keep in mind is I basically never lie.  I often assume others are the same, but I'm probably wrong.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

 

I just ran into my kids' bedrooms screaming that an arctic blast is coming and we should expect 6-8 inches of snow and highs in the 20s.   

I just jumped off a cliff playing follow the leader.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I’m probably gonna get trolled off this forum when it does switch back to ridging and people need a internet punching bag.

Agreed! .... day 10 folks.. about a 10% chance of verifying

[Jesse]

I’m probably gonna get trolled off this forum when it does switch back to ridging and people need a internet punching bag.

#rootingforus

[ShawniganLake]

Is New Years finally coming into view on the models.

[TT-SEA]

I’m probably gonna get trolled off this forum when it does switch back to ridging and people need a internet punching bag.

 

I will be my fault for tracking the EPS.   

[TT-SEA]

I just jumped off a cliff playing follow the leader.

 

I actually did mention it to my sons.   Although quietly.  

[snow_wizard]

I’m probably gonna get trolled off this forum when it does switch back to ridging and people need a internet punching bag.

 

I think the reason the models have changed is the amplitude of the MJO wave.  A few days ago the wave wasn't expected to be so strong.

[pscz1140]

You actually use that terminology?

 

Haven't talked about that stuff, but I do show model runs out to 10+ days from time-to-time even though it has absolutely nothing to do with the course topic. 

 

It makes me seem like some sort of Nostradamus in there the times when it more or less verifies

[TT-SEA]

Is New Years finally coming into view on the models.

 

Are you getting enough sleep?  You have become quite surly and sarcastic lately.  

[snow_wizard]

Agreed! .... day 10 folks.. about a 10% chance of verifying

 

It's not like there hasn't been other support for this.  There have been a number of GFS ensemble members and many GEM ensemble members showing very cold weather.

[Deweydog]

I’m probably gonna get trolled off this forum when it does switch back to ridging and people need a internet punching bag.

You predicted a three week mega blast, trumpeting it in every way possible for weeks. People actually handled that almost inevitable bust with surprising composure and perspective. Don't always assume the worst of us meteorological morons.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

41 at SeaTac.

The model shows 2m air temps in the upper 20's at that time. Not saying it is right of course.

[Phil]

#rootingforus

Yeah, that was a troll post. Mostly directed at you.