St Paul Storm Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Not terribly surprising but the 3km NAM jumped north as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Nice lake bands flowing off of LM up near MKE and points north off of the 3km NAM... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Per both NAM's, the wave seems to be digging more as HP presses down across the central Plains allowing the southerly flow out ahead of the system to nudge farther north. I'm seeing better moisture transport out of the GOM over the past couple runs.Also seeing some LES action once the first wave comes through Edit: Darn...Tom beat me to it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 That high pressure out east is encroaching further SW as well. The precip gets bumped north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 This just keeps getting worse. Every run of every model is taking snow away from us. The second wave may well whiff southeast, so we can't afford a north trend from the first wave, too. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Also seeing some LES action once the first wave comes through Edit: Darn...Tom beat me to it.Haha, yup, looks like Friday night into Sat the lake turns on over here... FWIW, the end of the 12z NAM run it's trying to dig the secondary piece as heights rise along the EC. That piece still has my attention as this jet structure looks intriguing...two jet streams trying to marry... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z NAM... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020712/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z NAM...now has the heaviest band along the IL/WI border...is it believable??? We'll have to see...but this wave is trending stronger on the NAM. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020712/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png Another 50-75 mile shift north and that sharp cutoff will be in the neighborhood. Can we discuss some factors that could either:a) continue to push it north inhibit its northward jog/come back south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 apparently b with a parentheses makes that smiley face Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Icon looks like it’s gonna go south this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Another 50-75 mile shift north and that sharp cutoff will be in the neighborhood. Can we discuss some factors that could either:a) continue to push it north inhibit its northward jog/come back southWell, it's hard to say at this point as this is the first 12z model run and I'd like to see what the rest of the suite of models have to show this morning. The 12z NAM 3km looks very similar to the GFS as for placement of the 1st wave. It's still snowing at HR 60.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 If you want the heaviest snow you are going to be riding the edge on the models. Just part of the game 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Well, it's hard to say at this point as this is the first 12z model run and I'd like to see what the rest of the suite of models have to show this morning. The 12z NAM 3km looks very similar to the GFS as for placement of the 1st wave. It's still snowing at HR 60.... Looks like it snows hard for another 6hrs after this for the 1st wave with LES kicking in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Well many times the NAM is just an outlier vs. a trend setter, so lets see what the GFS, RGEM, GGEM, and UK say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 And the other point to make is the higher totals are dependent on ratios. We know that game doesnt always play out like we hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 And the other point to make is the higher totals are dependent on ratios. We know that game doesnt always play out like we hope.Exactly, I'm not betting on anything higher than 15:1 for this event.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Nice reading this from IWX this am. GRR's was puke-worthy boring. You'd think we were looking at a 2-4" weekend ahead to read their overnight AFD. Let's just hope we can verify. NAM looking north is a flash-back to last weekend, but we have cold air ahead of this and not a N stream clipper running north of us and SLP's popping up along a CF, which held up the progression of cold down my way. My gut says NAM will come back south a bit. I-80 up to I-94 seems to be in the crosshairs .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)Issued at 417 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018A more prolonged snow event is forecast from Thursday night intoFriday night. Isentropic lift should be focused over northernIndiana into far southern Lower Michigan for an extended time thatmay exceed 24 hours. Mixing ratios of 3 g/kg combined withsignificant lift on the 295K surface should be enough to generatesnow amounts between 6 and 12 inches over this duration of time.After coordination with CHI, GRR, DET and CLE, have issued awinter storm watch for areas especially along and north of highway6. This includes far southern Lower Michigan into far northernIndiana and northwest Ohio. There should be a rather largesnowfall gradient south of highway 6 due to less lift and thepossibility of a wintry mix further south. For now givenuncertainty, kept all the precipitation snow. More snow is likelySaturday as this pattern persists. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Icon is farther north in Minnesota/SD but a tad south in WI/IL compared to 6z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I would ride the EURO in this setup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 I would ride the EURO in this setup I just hope that second wave comes in stronger like it was previously. I'm scared the first wave will be the strongest and take the available energy for the second wave away (which is essentially where all of our snow will come from). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 ICON has the 2nd wave in Nebraska. It seems to be the one model that has been consistent with this wave, not always exactly in the same place, however. Not saying it is correct, just seeing all the other fluctuations on the other models and I don't know what to believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 RGEM and still snowing http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018020712/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Boy this one is slowly slipping away here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 RGEM and still snowing http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018020712/048/snku_acc.us_mw.pngThats a strong 1st wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Gfs is coming in a bit more north so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z ICON down to only 0.25-0.30" for the CR/IC area. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Nice reading this from IWX this am. GRR's was puke-worthy boring. You'd think we were looking at a 2-4" weekend ahead to read their overnight AFD. Let's just hope we can verify. NAM looking north is a flash-back to last weekend, but we have cold air ahead of this and not a N stream clipper running north of us and SLP's popping up along a CF, which held up the progression of cold down my way. My gut says NAM will come back south a bit. I-80 up to I-94 seems to be in the crosshairs .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)Issued at 417 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 A more prolonged snow event is forecast from Thursday night intoFriday night. Isentropic lift should be focused over northernIndiana into far southern Lower Michigan for an extended time thatmay exceed 24 hours. Mixing ratios of 3 g/kg combined withsignificant lift on the 295K surface should be enough to generatesnow amounts between 6 and 12 inches over this duration of time.After coordination with CHI, GRR, DET and CLE, have issued awinter storm watch for areas especially along and north of highway6. This includes far southern Lower Michigan into far northernIndiana and northwest Ohio. There should be a rather largesnowfall gradient south of highway 6 due to less lift and thepossibility of a wintry mix further south. For now givenuncertainty, kept all the precipitation snow. More snow is likelySaturday as this pattern persists. GRR did mention 4-7 inches from I-96 south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 nams the only one north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS smacks Chicago with the first wave. Unreal, you guys haven't had any inconsistency whatsoever. It's crazy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020712&fh=66&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 nams the only one northYou still get 5+ on the GFS which is better than the 0z/6z runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS smacks Chicago with the first wave. Unreal, you guys haven't had any inconsistency whatsoever. It's crazy!looking pretty dismal out here. This is gonna turn into another 1-2" event 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 There’s another wave developing at hr 90 with a ton of precip breaking out in NE/CO etc farther north than 6z so far 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 My god, models are really backing off this morning. Not just here either, they all look bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS didn't shift the northern edge north, it just shifted the southern edge north compared to the 00z run on the first wave. LaCrosse, WI had 2.3" on both runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS didn't shift the northern edge north, it just shifted the southern edge north compared to the 00z run on the first wave. LaCrosse, WI had 2.3" on both runs.Wrong Look out in Minnesota/Dakotas etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 There’s another wave developing at hr 90 with a ton of precip breaking out in NE/CO etc farther north than 6z so far High Pressure sends it down south of everyone though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 Here's the ICON qpf. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 High Pressure sends it down south of everyone though.Still ends up hitting Chicago lol They get hit with all 3 waves 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2018 Report Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z GFS qpf Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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