Bryan1117 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, The Snowman said: 5" feels like a good starting point for Omaha. Anywhere from 3-12" in play, but NWS Omaha's range of 4-7" makes a lot of sense. Feeling like this system will drop a bit further south (something has to give) and pop us with 7-9" of snow in Omaha to get us to double digit snowfall for the Winter season. For some reason today I just have a gut feeling that this system has our number (maybe trying to find some optimism for once with the weather haha). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 18Z NAM with .4” ice AND a foot of snow?! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 I believe this is only the 2nd January tornado ever in Iowa 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Video 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I believe this is only the 2nd January tornado ever in Iowa From NWS DMX disco --- The HRRR and RAP solutions regarding instability on Monday have been all the rage on social media since their domains reached that period. Both are anomalously high on dew point temperatures with values in the low to mid 50s into central Iowa and both tend to over mix the boundary layer during stratus events. Other solutions are more conservative on both temperatures and dew points and do not overcome the warm wedge aloft. Sounding wind profiles do have direction shear below 900 mb but whether that shear is acting on surface based instability certainly is questionable. January tornadoes have occurred on only one day in Iowa recorded history, January 24, 1967 when 13 tornadoes occurred over the southeast portion of the state. That event was followed up by a blizzard with record snow accumulations over the state, thus a very strong system. It often takes a historical type system such as Dec 15, 2021 when nearly 80 kts of flow was at 850 mb or below. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Jan 1967--- takes the cake...for an out break.... Sounding wind profiles do have direction shear below 900 mb but whether that shear is acting on surface based instability certainly is questionable. January tornadoes have occurred on only one day in Iowa recorded history, January 24, 1967 when 13 tornadoes occurred over the southeast portion of the state. That event was followed up by a blizzard with record snow accumulations over the state, thus a very strong system. It often takes a historical type system such as Dec 15, 2021 when nearly 80 kts of flow was at 850 mb or below. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 I feel pretty decent sitting in Waterloo just can't afford it to go any more north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Very good run for Central Nebraska. Let's see in the next 24 hours if we can get it to inch back south some for more members. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Quick observation now that all the 12z data is in; the northward trend that popped up over the last few days appears to have been the result of two modest but impactful shifts: weaker Canadian HP located just north of the Great Lakes, and stronger upstream ridging across the Southeast, both of which allow the low to 'lift' a little more north. The last couple EPS runs are showing a little backtracking, with that Canadian high being a little stronger and upstream ridging either staying the same run-over-run or even weakening just a hair. Makes me think the pendulum has swung back a bit in terms of risk to the forecast; if these trends continue, wouldn't be a surprise to see totals for southern fringe cities (i.e. Omaha) tick back up. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Jan 1967--- takes the cake...for an out break.... Sounding wind profiles do have direction shear below 900 mb but whether that shear is acting on surface based instability certainly is questionable. January tornadoes have occurred on only one day in Iowa recorded history, January 24, 1967 when 13 tornadoes occurred over the southeast portion of the state. That event was followed up by a blizzard with record snow accumulations over the state, thus a very strong system. It often takes a historical type system such as Dec 15, 2021 when nearly 80 kts of flow was at 850 mb or below. Yep that’s what I read. Couldn’t remember if it was one tornado or tornadoes had only occurred one other date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Lock this one in! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: My gosh 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Bring on the chill and hopefully some moisture! Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 And we finally have GFS capitulation to the Euro. Took long enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Nebraska is looking good 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 18z GEFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 This shows 1-2" for Valentine, NE, meanwhile the Euro has about 14" for Valentine. So.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Riding the edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Jim Flowers comparing GFS to Euro amounts. https://fb.watch/i5z-xyKwv-/?mibextid=v7YzmG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Dmx take two- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Ugg never fails, can't ever get a slam dunk for my area. This has the potential to turn into a bust or magical storm. Will see what tonights runs show. Hoping they jump on the GFS board! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, gabel23 said: Ugg never fails, can't ever get a slam dunk for my area. This has the potential to turn into a bust or magical storm. Will see what tonights runs show. Hoping they jump on the GFS board! Yep. NWS Hastings with a very detailed write up of this. Jim Flowers sort of likes the GFS. We’ll see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Heading into the event, model verification stats show the GFS Op lagging all other guidance when viewing North America 500mb fields in the 1-5 day forecast window. ECMWF and its ensembles setting the bar, which personally makes me less optimistic for a southward shift. Crazier things have happened, of course, but going into this event the GFS is on shaky ground. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 Looks like we may get lucky up here. Everything trail wise is in pretty brutal shape after today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 That’s looking good. Great to see euro on my side, just outside the 12+ by sixty miles. Just hate seeing that sharps cutoff of the south. Onto the nam. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 sref with a south shift (for omaha area) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 59 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z Euro shows close to a foot at FSD. Really upped QPF for just about everyone. What an amazing winter for this area. They just keep reeling them in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 0z HRRR. Snow still falling in many areas after 48 hours. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 Well alright then… 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 NWS grid forecast SUCKS for me… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 nam is not good for omaha and lincoln 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: nam is not good for omaha and lincoln Living from model to model won't do anyone any good for their mental health, especially with the NAM. I should be excited or ecstatic about this run of NAM for Des Moines area, yet, I'll take it with a mountain of salt. Perhaps that salt turns into a mountain of snow, but not banking on it after one good run. Neither should any Omaha people just bc one bad run. Hard to do, I know, but have faith. Let's share the wealth as much as we can with this one! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: nam is not good for omaha and lincoln 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 17, 2023 Report Share Posted January 17, 2023 00z NAM has nothing in Minnesota and clobbers eastern Iowa. That's ridiculous. 1 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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