March 3th-7th Bowling Ball

[Stormgeek]

MSP pulled the trigger on  warning. 5-9 with isolated up to 10. Also of interest is they left a little clause in the warning that might hint at an earlier onset of snow changeover. Either way going to be a mess.

 "There is still some uncertainty on when the precipitation will

change to snow and when the heaviest snow will occur. It is
possible that the Monday morning commute could also be
significantly impacted by wintry weather, so check for forecast
updates and plan accordingly."

[Madtown]

Thinking by tues afternoon we'll have 4 here. Got all the dog crap picked up bring it on....lol!

[FV-Mike]

wow, this thing got exciting quickly. MSP looking good. they have really had a nice finish to the season. ill take the 2 inches down here!

[Hawkeye]

DVN just issued an advisory for 1-3 inches along hw20 from west of Dubuque through nw Illinois.

[Madtown]

Did the storm get canceled? Where is everyone?

[Money]

Preparing for this big storm

[Stormgeek]

Did the storm get canceled? Where is everyone?

Yeah, did you not see? Money cancelled it earlier.

[Madtown]

Crazy nothing but crickets and a 10" dumping coming

[BLIZZARD09]

hey Chicagoans--!! a WWA --where are you?

[jaster220]

I've gone MET spring mode myself. Such a gorgeous sunny weekend and my entire family is looking forward to true spring. Stat pad warning in effect for mby I suppose :-\

[St Paul Storm]

Preparing for this big storm

Might be your biggest snow event of the season, eh? Better enjoy it.

[Tony]

hey Chicagoans--!! a WWA --where are you?

This time of the Year I want it really really big otherwise it's just another advisory.

[Stormgeek]

Might be your biggest snow event of the season, eh? Better enjoy it.

For our area, especially mine, it could definitely be the highest impact storm of the season. Going to be rocking and rolling during the evening commute.

[gimmesnow]

I dunno what to talk about. I got cold and I got enough snow to save the hill for another week or so. All of this is so fleeting in March, even if we were getting a foot down here, it'd all be gone in a few days, a week tops. Earlier storms are a lot more exciting, you really feel like winter's starting and you can hope to build a base and set the tone for the rest of the season.

 

I think most of the people here are ready for spring after that warm spell. The only ones really rooting for the cold and snow right now are the ones that want to play in the snow some more, whether it's cross country skiing, skiing, snowboarding, whatever.

 

As others said, it's like the big snow we got late last year. IIRC we were below average all season, and it pretty much blew, and then we got a big snow at the end that didn't stick around very long and wasn't good for much, which ended up giving us an average season.

 

Personally, this winter felt a lot better than it actually was. This is just another fleeting snow for Chicago area that'll pad the average and then disappear in a week.

[St Paul Storm]

For our area, especially mine, it could definitely be the highest impact storm of the season. Going to be rocking and rolling during the evening commute.

 

The last update indicates they're thinking the heavy snow might begin closer to 12z instead of 15z. The morning commute would also be a disaster. This is still so up in the air though. Timing the changeover from rain to snow in one specific area is extremely difficult. 

[St Paul Storm]

Some instability approaching from the SW. No lightning detected with it at the moment but might bring some heavier downpours. 

[Stormgeek]

Not too far out and the 00z NAM is off of its rocker still. 00z GFS looks more like what I see happening.

[bud2380]

The RGEM goes crazy in NE Iowa.

[Tom]

The RGEM goes crazy in NE Iowa.

Looks like far NE IA getting some heavy snowfall returns for DBQ area...

[Tom]

As the late season Blizzard takes shape, the snow starved Dakotas region will be greeted by a nice blast of winter...this snow cover map will look quite different tomorrow...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201803/nsm_depth_2018030505_Upper_Midwest.jpg

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Here's the 00z euro.  It now has the heaviest snow west of Minneapolis down to northeast Iowa.  There was already a quick inch only a county or two north of me this morning.

 

I picked up a half inch of rain with some thunder.

 

[St Paul Storm]

Roads are incredibly icy this morning. Anyone that said surface temps might be too warm for the snow to accumulate effectively later today were mistaken. Ratios are the only thing that might keep accums down.

[bud2380]

Cedar Rapids now in a winter weather advisory. At my place the temperature dropped from 35 to 34 from when we woke up until now.

[Tom]

Latest HRRR looking good across S/C WI into parts of N IL...hoping to score 2" and creep ever so slowly towards normal for the entire season...of note, just like the Euro, it is suggesting to keep the heaviest snow bands just west of MSP metro...strong block is def still wrecking havoc on the modeling this close into the event...

 

[St Paul Storm]

Yeah that’s an understatement, Tom. Still have no idea what to expect even as this event begins.

 

Some large flakes beginning to fall here on the far east side of Mpls.

[Hawkeye]

There's now a report of 3 inches of snow only one county east of Cedar Rapids.  Models underestimated the ability of the initial precip band to produce snow.

[St Paul Storm]

There's now a report of 3 inches of snow only one county east of Cedar Rapids.  Models underestimated the ability of the initial precip band to produce snow.

Today is going to be riddled with model over and underestimations. Surprises coming all across the board.

[Hawkeye]

I'm not expecting much snow accumulation here, but I'd still like to see a brief heavy burst later as the main precip band moves through.

[St Paul Storm]

One thing is for certain....this thing is crawling along. The main show is going to arrive much later than previously thought.

 

Temp down to 33. Has fallen 2 degrees in the last 90 minutes.

[gosaints]

One thing is for certain....this thing is crawling along. The main show is going to arrive much later than previously thought.

 

Temp down to 33. Has fallen 2 degrees in the last 90 minutes.

No idea what to expect later this afternoon.  

 

Cant believe how far left some models have pushed up there

[St Paul Storm]

No idea what to expect later this afternoon.  

 

Cant believe how far left some models have pushed up there

And then the 12z 3km NAM increases totals again in E MN and W WI. Gonna have to resort to the radar trends to figure this out.

[gosaints]

And then the 12z 3km NAM increases totals again in E MN and W WI. Gonna have to resort to the radar trends to figure this out.

Ya.... Watching the HRRR will be like pulling teeth on this crawler

[Madtown]

[Stormgeek]

Man, it better snow alot here. Almost all schools are closed due to proactive shut down. If it doesn't start snowing until 3 there are going to be some very unhappy individuals around these parts.

[hlcater]

Winds are still blowing pretty good at 30mph with gusts up to 40 here. Don’t think it snowed here with the initial band, but if models underestimated the ability of the first wave to produce snow, maybe they’re underestimating the second one as well.

[St Paul Storm]

Lightning in SW MN east of Sioux Falls. Things are ramping up.

[bud2380]

i would think the slower the arrival, the better chances for accumulating snows.  HRRR showing snow moving into Eastern Iowa around 2pm.  I'm with Hawkeye, not expecting to see any accums here, but it would be nice to see a burst of snow.  

[Hawkeye]

DVN retweeted a report from overnight saying Cedar Rapids had graupel or small hail lightly covering the ground.  When the initial band reached me, I thought it sounded more like sleet than rain.  Maybe some of that stuff bounced out of my rain gauge.

 

The latest HRRR has nothing in MSP until after 3pm, as was suggested a few posts above.

[NEJeremy]

we've switched to a little light snow here. Definitely a bit of a surprise, but shouldn't amount to anything with the marginal temps and rate.

[gimmesnow]

Our WWA was bumped up from 2-4 to 3-6. Those sleepy Mormons at Backcountry.com need to hurry up and ship my board!