PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Up to nearly an inch of snow in the Victoria area now. Looks like it starting to stick to some of the roads:

Even more just west of Victoria:

[BurienSnowGlobe]

1 minute ago, clipper_range said:

Definitely.

Yeah this is no joke if some places can stay all snow 

[Sandy rocks]

It seems to be warmer up north. Here in Sandy it's 29 with DP of 20. I guess it will "wet bulb" due to the lower dew point. Is that correct?  I am hoping for more snow this time, I didn't get a lot before.

[MikeInEverett]

5 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

As the models hinted, It’s looking like some of us here in the Lake Stevens / Granite Falls area may be shadowed from a full dose of snow.  My 1.3 inches promised earlier is looking less likely.  Currently 35 DP30.

It will fill in

[snow_wizard]

Slight improvement for this general area on the ECMWF vs 12z and 18z.  Nice to see that.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3.3" and snowing moderately.

[Cold Snap]

Low slightly farther south on the Euro so far.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm wondering if the NWS is just kicking the can down the road about Tuesday morning until after we're done with the event tonight.  They still have time to wait on pulling the trigger on that one.

They have to wait on that one... the last ECMWF was quite marginal with temps and the new GEM just came out.   They will have to wait until Monday to figure that one out.   It could be huge but could also bust.    I personally think its going to be significant.  

[snow_wizard]

Been a very slow but steady drop here all evening.  36.5 now.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

3.3" and snowing moderately.

Photos?

[MikeInEverett]

How does the 00z ECMWF look for tonight?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

3.3" and snowing moderately.

Killer winter for you overall.  Back to back great ones for you in fact.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Been a very slow but steady drop here all evening.  36.5 now.

I’m still dropping. Down to 33.5 with DP in mid 20s. 

[Margaritaville]

[snow_wizard]

Nice Monday evening shot for SW King County.  Looks pretty real.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

How does the 00z ECMWF look for tonight?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems as good a time as any to mention the ensemble improvement and the fact the operational GFS was a huge outlier in the long range. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks downright fun Monday evening in fact.  Temps below freezing with snow.

[Cold Snap]

Euro actually takes it further north once it gets to the coast. Probably going to be less snowy for the Seattle area.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems as good a time as any to mention the ensemble improvement and the fact the operational GFS was a huge outlier in the long range. 

Gorgeous!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Euro actually takes it further north once it gets to the coast. Probably going to be less snowy for the Seattle area.

Monday evening is great though.

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Up to nearly an inch of snow in the Victoria area now. Looks like it starting to stick to some of the roads:

Even more just west of Victoria:

Snow has been light but steady up this way. Just a little under 2”

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

I’ll be lucky to get 1-2 inches tonight if that holds true. Hating the Down-slopping off those high peaks. Hope the models are over doing that. It almost reaches up to I-90 along the foothills. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Nice Monday evening shot for SW King County.  Looks pretty real.

Monday is another confusing day... ECMWF is quite warm on Monday afternoon in King County (46 at SEA) but then it could be snowing by evening.   I guess that is how it works in the spring.   That might be convective on Monday evening?

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Monday evening is great though.

You are right about that. And it actually looks a bit juicier Tuesday morning but the low is pretty far to our north so I don’t know how that would affect things.

[Requiem]

Not sure how next week looks for PDX but I think Monday-Tuesday may be our best shot for some more snow... not that we really need any per se

 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems as good a time as any to mention the ensemble improvement and the fact the operational GFS was a huge outlier in the long range. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow for Monday night and Tuesday (through 4 p.m.)... a little less for Seattle than the 12Z run but better to the north.    This is the same general theme as the GEM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

South wind getting breezy. Solid cloud cover now and the temp has gone from 28 to 32. 

[Bueryan]

Just started lightly snowing here in Burien. Here we go!

[TacomaWx]

Light snow at Shelton

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow for Monday night and Tuesday (through 4 p.m.)... a little less for Seattle than the 12Z run but better to the north.    This is the same general theme as the GEM.

Looks pretty widespread overall. Other than maybe the south sound. 

[TT-SEA]

The Tuesday evening c-zone is farther north too... maybe a happy Randy?   

Also pointed SW to NW rather than W to E like previously shown.   That indicates the low moved off to the NE.

[Cold Snap]

Between what the Euro and GEM are showing tonight. I would go with 4-7” for MBY for Monday night into Tuesday.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Bueryan said:

Just started lightly snowing here in Burien. Here we go!

Hadn’t actually looked outside in awhile but some flakes here now despite the fact it’s 40.

[Gummy]

I always like the visual of snow shows, unless they are over my location of course. 

 

 

[MikeInEverett]

Echoes starting to fill in over Snohomish County now

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The Tuesday evening c-zone is farther north too... maybe a happy Randy?   

Also pointed SW to NW rather than W to E like previously shown.   That indicates the low moved off to the NE.

Let’s not trend any further north than this. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it did. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What did Sunday pm-Monday 4p snow look like? Didn't see a map posted for that period. 

[snow_wizard]

The Tuesday snow just happens earlier on the ECMWF.  Looks nice!  Still showing a hard freeze Tuesday night as well.