Deweydog Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Never said that. Is this the part when I yell “straw men!!!!”to show off my thick skinnedness? I asked and you politely what for your winter forecast and you said something akin to 2002-03. That was a dud! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Snowy Labor Day??? Could happen at OLM still. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 I asked and you politely what for your winter forecast and you said something akin to 2002-03. That was a dud!Haha! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Jesse AND Justin say complete dud so proceed with caution. 1918-19 repeat. Look it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Haha!Probably won't need that thick skin this winter. Just a windbreaker should suffice. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 1918-19 repeat. Look it up.Haha! 8-9... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Solar activity has picked up again in August after being very low in July. This actually bodes well for those rooting for a longer, deeper solar minimum. Mathematically, looking at past solar mins, this cycle is mirroring ones from the Dalton Minimum in its descent. The last solar minimum did as well, with a protracted min from late 2008-early 2010, but this one is coming off a SC 24 peak that was 50% lower than SC 23. I suspect the early onset of -AMO conditions and the coolish Arctic summer are also related. The next few winters should be quite blocky and very interesting.Yeah, statistically speaking, long cycle troughs precede deeper minimums. Also, the structure of the dipole and the low latitude of the sunspots indicate that solar minimum is at least a year away. The stage has been pretty much set in that regard. FWIW, geomagnetic storms tend to be stronger closer to the equinoxes, when the Earth’s magnetic field is more easily perturbed. The recent event was a result of a fissure in our magnetic field in the wake of a weak CME w/ a southward Bz taking advantage of near-equinox boundary conditions. This particular sunspot group will rotate away from the Earth in a few days. So perhaps it’s less of an “uptick” and more of a typical fluctuation in solar activity superimposed on the long term decline? http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Haha! 8-9... First snowless winter on record in Portland. There would be many, many more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 First snowless winter on record in Portland. There will be many, many more Fixed! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 But an uptick in the solar wind/geomagnetic storms this fall would be a terrible thing, because: 1) Higher solar wind/geomagnetic activity in the run-up to solar minimum is highly indicative a stronger subsequent solar cycle. 2) It would destroy O^3/TWs in the places we want them, and currently have them, believe it or not. November and December are the months that could go big for the West should we avoid a 2012/13 like progression with the strong early-season vortex wasting a great early season wavetrain. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 We brought the drizzle back with us, boys!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Fixed! No doubt. I expect that to be 2019-20 and probably 2020-21. I do in fact think we'll see a Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Light rain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Yeah, statistically speaking, long cycle troughs precede deeper minimums. Also, the structure of the dipole and the low latitude of the sunspots indicate that solar minimum is at least a year away. The stage has been pretty much set in that regard. FWIW, geomagnetic storms tend to be stronger closer to the equinoxes, when the Earth’s magnetic field is more easily perturbed. The recent event was a result of a fissure in our magnetic field in the wake of a weak CME w/ a southward Bz taking advantage of near-equinox boundary conditions. This particular sunspot group will rotate away from the Earth in a few days. So perhaps it’s less of an “uptick” and more of a typical fluctuation in solar activity superimposed on the long term decline? Yes, almost certainly a typical fluctuation on the slow path down. Almost everything I see points to something close to SC 6/7, during Dalton Min. Solar activity levels are definitely lower than we've seen in 100+ years, the real question is will they recover or are we entering a grand minima? By the way, severe drought and heatwaves are also a hallmark of low solar activity, as the atmosphere tends to get more stagnant and the jetstream is weaker than normal. People tend to, of course, fixate on the blocky, often cold aspects of winter, but in general, low solar activity correlates to: shorter growing seasons, more severe storms, floods, droughts, bigger snowfalls, and more severe cold waves. We saw all of that across the CONUS in 2008-11. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Looking good for a sub-70 day at PDX. And the CZ is firing up for Mossman! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 No doubt. I expect that to be 2019-20 and probably 2020-21. I do in fact think we'll see a Bold and beautiful! Schools will undoubtedly be closed for a couple days. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Drizzle stopped! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Pleasant room temperature same inside as outside under dry overcast. Normal Willamette Valley summer paradise right here. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 No doubt. I expect that to be 2019-20 and probably 2020-21. I do in fact think we'll see a Well if it means anything we got exactly that this winter. Only 1 inch of wet slop that caused a random 'snow day' for schools for some odd reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Either some moron decided to burn on our second damp day in a while or the wildfire smoke is returning...getting stinky again. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Looking good for a sub-70 day at PDX. Day’s not over. They have hit at least 68 so far. A small thin patch in the clouds could easily get them there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Either some moron decided to burn on our second damp day in a while or the wildfire smoke is returning...getting stinky again. The smoke is never going away... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Day’s not over. They have hit at least 68 so far. A small thin patch in the clouds could easily get them there. Gonna be close! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 PDX up to 62. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Just went thru a pretty good thunder storn near montrose colorado Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Where does front ranger live? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Clean air... and a normal looking turbulent North Bend day: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Where does front ranger live? Near Boulder... I think I remember Thornton or Broomfield? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Does not seem like there is another wave of organized precip left to come through... appears we just have the post-frontal c-zone now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Spent a lot of time today in the coast range hiking, overcast with temps in the high 50s-low 60s and a drizzle to light rain. Felt so refreshing to feel the cool fresh air. It actually felt like I was in the PNW instead of Arizona for once. Very happy and eager for fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Where does front ranger live?Westminster. In between Denver and Boulder. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Day’s not over. They have hit at least 68 so far. A small thin patch in the clouds could easily get them there.Looks unlikely with plenty of moisture streaming in and peak heating ending soon. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 I don't see how any of you people can like a day like today in August. It should be like this in October. Not August. Down right depressing. Wind. Clouds. Drizzle. Where is my prozac? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Some drizzle, 62 degrees 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 I don't see how any of you people can like a day like today in August. It should be like this in October. Not August. Down right depressing. Wind. Clouds. Drizzle. Where is my prozac? We've had way more than our fair share of hot and bone dry days. So many places here with dead/dying vegetation from the brutal drought and we have very high fire danger and awful air quality. Can't even make a campfire in most spots here. At what point will the drought enthusiasts on this forum stop cheering for this nonsense? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Some drizzle, 62 degrees Man, that is a ridiculous commercial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Hour 384! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Man, that is a ridiculous commercial. One of the most ridiculous I have ever seen. I was watching Mark Nelsen on Fox 12 one night and they went to break and then that thing came on. I was like, wow... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 I don't see how any of you people can like a day like today in August. It should be like this in October. Not August. Down right depressing. Wind. Clouds. Drizzle. Where is my prozac? Obvious troll attempt, but...a few days like this at the beginning of the month and you wouldn't have been dealing with so much smoke the past few weeks. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 26, 2018 Report Share Posted August 26, 2018 Obvious troll attempt, but...a few days like this at the beginning of the month and you wouldn't have been dealing with so much smoke the past few weeks. 61 degrees and drizzling, still doing yard work, it has absolutely no effect on my outdoor activities today. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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