jaster220 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Everyone who's getting excited about the cold pushing well SE from where it's been needs to remember that it's due to the MJO shifting from Phase 1 into Phase 2. In winter that would mean we all get cold, but it's October and instead the BN regime up in Canada (source region) rebounds AN. So, we're not really sinking deeper into "winter time" but instead cycling through and we'll have to start all over again building the cold north of the border. I don't fault anybody if they're a bit eager to ditch the ridges and heatwaves, but moving into serious winter too early usually screws things up over all. You either end up with a lame-azz 2nd half (see 00-01) or a big dead spot in the middle (see 06-07 or 14-15). I'd personally rather we step down a bit ahead of schedule vs plunging off a cliff prematurely. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Eventual hurricane Michael looks to make landfall somewhere on the gulf coast sometime mid-late next week. Any chance that breaks up this nice weather pattern? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Everyone who's getting excited about the cold pushing well SE from where it's been needs to remember that it's due to the MJO shifting from Phase 1 into Phase 2. In winter that would mean we all get cold, but it's October and instead the BN regime up in Canada (source region) rebounds AN. So, we're not really sinking deeper into "winter time" but instead cycling through and we'll have to start all over again building the cold north of the border. I don't fault anybody if they're a bit eager to ditch the ridges and heatwaves, but moving into serious winter too early usually screws things up over all. You either end up with a lame-azz 2nd half (see 00-01) or a big dead spot in the middle (see 06-07 or 14-15). I'd personally rather we step down a bit ahead of schedule vs plunging off a cliff prematurely.'00 was a December to remember here but you're right. Winter that year was October-December here. It ended mid-January 2001. What I'm more looking at right now is the progression forward in the pattern. This is usually the part where I blow it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Eventual hurricane Michael looks to make landfall somewhere on the gulf coast sometime mid-late next week. Any chance that breaks up this nice weather pattern?Similar weather pattern as around the time of TS Gordon. Should be a similar result just a different location. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Euro gets rid of any sort of storm system here next weekend. GFS still keeps it. Guess it's time to get a first look into which model will forecast these better this year. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 By Marshall standards I've done great, lol. Tacked on a little bit this afternoon for 0.83" total for the event. I got all the rain here a year ago (flood) and in Feb (flood) and in May (flood). I don't want to be in a D0 pre-drought situation but I'm not really unhappy if I don't get the most rain here in mby. Now, when we're talkin' snow that's a whole other matter So did I, no complaints. Plentiful rainfall. Snowfallwise, you'd be buried in feet of snow ma man. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Currently @ 55F w cloudy skies. Anotha WF coming up its way will boost temps up into the 80s once again b4 a strong CF pushes on through by midweek or later and realllllyyyyyy cool off my temps. I stand a shot at staying in the 40s for highs. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 TS Micheal should not gain strength and remain in the weak status in the GOM. Ton of moisture will affect the southern states and the EC for now as it stands. My area looks like it will get bypass. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Looking at the last frame of the GFS out on the 23rd, that looks like the real-deal artic front. If I don't have a freeze b4 then, that should do it. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Looking at the last frame of the GFS out on the 23rd, that looks like the real-deal artic front. If I don't have a freeze b4 then, that should do it.Its been a long time since I read the word "Arctic Front" or even heard it for that matter. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 If there is any window where the NAO could turn negative, I think it would be during the last 10 days of the month. Seeing what is happening at both 10mb/30mb across N Canada/Greenland the last few days of Sept into Oct, I would imagine some ridging would develop in NE Canada/Greenland late month. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Currently 55F and cloudy. No rainfall to report of. Big brief, warm-up coming w temps approaching 85-90. Records are likely to be broken. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 T-3 days or so til this ridge gets beaten down. Cannot wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 T-3 days or so til this ridge gets beaten down. Cannot wait.#Sergio's remnants might be heading your way by next weekend...great pattern setting up for you later this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 If there is any window where the NAO could turn negative, I think it would be during the last 10 days of the month. Seeing what is happening at both 10mb/30mb across N Canada/Greenland the last few days of Sept into Oct, I would imagine some ridging would develop in NE Canada/Greenland late month. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gifI'd say that's a good call. Will be interesting to see the effects of the pattern change in about 3 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 #Sergio's remnants might be heading your way by next weekend...great pattern setting up for you later this week.Becomes an Arklatex style low, if I'm not mistaken. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Happy Birthday to me.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Euro brings a rain/snow mix into my county next Friday. GFS is in the 40s though and brings just rain throughout the state. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Euro brings a rain/snow mix into my county next Friday. GFS is in the 40s though and brings just rain throughout the state.Is Euro back with the system? It had lost it yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Is Euro back with the system? It had lost it yesterday.Yeah but it's fairly small. Good to see Euro picking it back up though. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 If there is any window where the NAO could turn negative, I think it would be during the last 10 days of the month. Seeing what is happening at both 10mb/30mb across N Canada/Greenland the last few days of Sept into Oct, I would imagine some ridging would develop in NE Canada/Greenland late month. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif That'd actually be perfect timing for the phase1-2 transition when the BN blob-o-blue shifts SE across Dixie. Question then becomes Is this also a cyclical pattern of the new LRC? Wherein the region between the Rockies and the Appalachians has a several week active period, followed by a similar shifting of the battle zone east of the App's? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Rain shield is knocking on my door. Moving in slowly from the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Been getting light mist here with a cool temperature of 54° There looks to be a big warm up for Monday, Tuesday and less so for Wednesday. The high in the forecast for Monday is 80 the record at Grand Rapids is 88 that record looks to be safe. As for Tuesday the high in the forecast is lower 80’s the record is 84 in 1939 that record should be safe and Wed record of 85 will be safe. Of bigger importance is that there have only been 8 times it has gotten 80 or better on October 8 in GR history and for Tuesday the number is only 5 times. If it indeed reaches the low 80’s on Tuesday it will be one of the warmest for that day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Wisconsin should be renamed "Wetconsin" and the Great Plains should now be called the "Great Flood Plains" 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 That'd actually be perfect timing for the phase1-2 transition when the BN blob-o-blue shifts SE across Dixie. Question then becomes Is this also a cyclical pattern of the new LRC? Wherein the region between the Rockies and the Appalachians has a several week active period, followed by a similar shifting of the battle zone east of the App's?I heard that the MJO only influences the LRC, but there is evidence it has a 30-60 day cycle as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 7, 2018 Report Share Posted October 7, 2018 Wisconsin should be renamed "Wetconsin" and the Great Plains should now be called the "Great Flood Plains" Wow, that’s a lot of rain in the cards around here and other parts of the Midwest. Flood watches in effect through Tuesday in Eastern Nebraska, I might need a bigger boat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 Wow, that’s a lot of rain in the cards around here and other parts of the Midwest. Flood watches in effect through Tuesday in Eastern Nebraska, I might need a bigger boat.Anyone asking for a drought buster. You win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 Winter lawn fertilizer put down this morning. Time for a soaker and let’s get the cold in here. Winter prep in full force. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 Wisconsin should be renamed "Wetconsin" and the Great Plains should now be called the "Great Flood Plains" Anyone asking for a drought buster. You win. two too funny posts - ea gets a :lol: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 just looking at the CONUS radar and wowza this would be a massive wintery system if it were mid-winter. That swipe of qpf brings back memories of GHD-1 ('cept them was snow amts ofc). IF this is anything like we see in December look out somebody's getting buried! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just saw my forecast and it looks like a very warm Mon and especially Tues w the possibility of a couple of broken records or records being tied. Anywhere from 80-90F is a real bet. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 What's 3in....Dont get excited unless we crack 5in per event...lol...wish I was swimming in a fresh 30in of snow every week come dec and jan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 Seeing chances for our first flakes Friday Morning. I'll take it. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 I hope most are excited to get this autumn cool rolling along soon. I feel like I've been waiting forever but I've had a bit of everything since last spring. I'm excited for some sharply cold air to return. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 Warning blast, then snap to mid-fall for all is what the GFS keeps alluding to.Heck yes!! Love that west coast warmth trending too! Great October pattern being pieced together. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 8, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 I hope most are excited to get this autumn cool rolling along soon. I feel like I've been waiting forever but I've had a bit of everything since last spring. I'm excited for some sharply cold air to return.If there is anyone on here that should be ecstatic, it would be you my friend. I'm glad to see your enthusiasm this season and hopeful you will score bigly this cold season. Enjoy the cool down coming later this week that looks to stick around for a while. No pesky ridges down south that I see for the foreseeable future. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 8, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 Happy Monday! It's quite a foggy morning here today on this Columbus Day in Chicago. How does that folklore work again?? Anyhow, this week will feature one of the more busy weeks of weather this Autumn season for the majority of the central CONUS. It's nice to talk about some late season warmth around here to kick off the work week. I don't mind it all actually, on the flip side, I'm also anxious to see my first flakes and my first Freeze of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 Very heavy rain has moved through here in the past few hours. Rainfall total in the past 24 hours is 1.93" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 Yes, there was a line of storms that briefly dumped very heavy rain here this morning. Large drops really pounded the roof. Yesterday through this morning I've received 1.57", with most of that falling early this morning. I was worried this entire wet period would bust, but this rain more than doubled my 8-day total. The WPC has another couple inches falling. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 8, 2018 Report Share Posted October 8, 2018 A couple freezes are popping up in our late week to weekend forecast. I understand a lot of us are looking forward to this, but I still have seven hummingbirds and a yard full of tender plants. I'm going to have to cover plants, which is always a pain. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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