snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 49/29 today with morning fog and frost, then partly cloudy to overcast conditions later on. Coldest day of the season so far, and also the first high in the 40s, first low in the 20s, and first freeze. I am loving the cold temps! The change was really sudden and noticeable. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 BTW...we are in a 23 day spotless streak on the sun now. Flux levels indicate we are still not to the minimum. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Jim’s back! Now we just need the Gordon Fisherman to arrive for the season and we will be set! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 The ever-reliable hour produces again.Great low placement! Book it! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 The ever-reliable hour produces again.That makes my inner child giddy... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Unloading. https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/snowshoe-village-live-cam Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Some of the 00z GEFS members have the modest wave activity spike too. Hopefully the start of a trend. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 I don’t think so (although I hope you’re right, lol). Geomagnetic activity has been too high this autumn, and the QBO is much farther along this year.Maybe next year? which is why I fail to see why so many outlooks are going all in this year and its not just the weenies or joe bastardi that doing it but really most of the mets this year.I think a large bit of the problem May be is you and others go deeper into these patterns and unfortunately most of the mets only go by a few of the factors don't get me wrong they are great and respectful promet forecasters but because they are only going by a few factors I think they are missing alot of other factors and not really realiseing its a bit more complex this year but I do hope there high snow outlooks are right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Some of the 00z GEFS members have the modest wave activity spike too. Hopefully the start of a trend.So does the GEPS. Hmm. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Where in the Pacific Northwest is this?Kayla’s yard. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Kayla’s yard. My yard has MUCH more snow than that little dusting. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Yellowjackets still going strong. Latest I ever remember them out like this.Beautiful day with sunshine and clear skies 52F.Yes they are, I work in the woods every day and they are still very active if their nests are in the ground. Stepped on one yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 00z GFS has better wave activity towards the end. We’ll see. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018111000&fh=-54 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 SEA had a high of 43. Better than nothing. Skies are pretty clear so I am thinking most places are going be lower than projected tonight. I was wrong. Clouds did move in and kept the temp at 41 all night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 It's only 372 hours away guys! Lock it in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 A ray of foggy sun! 5 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Looks like split flow dominates the 12Z GFS... fairy dry and uneventful. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Looks like split flow dominates the 12Z GFS... fairy dry and uneventful.Yep. Pretty ugly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Looks like split flow dominates the 12Z GFS... fairy dry and uneventful. Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Yep. Pretty ugly Good pattern for some rain in CA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 We have some excellent evidence the atmosphere is failing to couple with the warm ENSO SSTs. During the recent spike to +1.5 on the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly we had a positive 30 day SOI which has only become more robust the last few days. The 30 day SOI is nearly +5 now and the 90 day is also rising. We also have a full blown Indian Ocean (soon to become Maritime Continent) MJO wave, and the October MEI was lower than September coming in below +0.5. This will be interesting to follow, but the evidence suggests this possible Nino has an uphill battle ahead. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season? Probably not the entire winter season. Maybe years like 2014-15 and 2002-03 were close. I am sure there are some others. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season?Yes!! Plenty! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 We have some excellent evidence the atmosphere is failing to couple with the warm ENSO SSTs. During the recent spike to +1.5 on the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly we had a positive 30 day SOI which has only become more robust the last few days. The 30 day SOI is nearly +5 now and the 90 day is also rising. We also have a full blown Indian Ocean (soon to become Maritime Continent) MJO wave, and the October MEI was lower than September coming in below +0.5. This will be interesting to follow, but the evidence suggests this possible Nino has an uphill battle ahead. I sure hope its peaked now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Looks like split flow dominates the 12Z GFS... fairy dry and uneventful. Probably the determining factor as to whether or not we see some cool troughing. Another low of 32 this morning as skies cleared. At least we are getting our freezes in. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season? I'm not at all worried about split flow in November. The net result of the pattern advertised looks pretty chilly overall to me. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Probably the determining factor as to whether or not we see some cool troughing. Another low of 32 this morning as skies cleared. At least we are getting our freezes in. Anything other than the pattern we had the first week of the month works for me. I hated those warm nights. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Probably the determining factor as to whether or not we see some cool troughing. Another low of 32 this morning as skies cleared. At least we are getting our freezes in. Dry and quiet weather from now through February is almost a lock for chilly nights. Not good for skiing... but good for lowland cold. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 20D835EC-C2FE-45F7-996C-6AB87385AF6E.pngHa..that’s a good swing on the 06z. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 To Jim's point... quite a drop! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 The good thing about the pattern advertised the next two weeks is persistent above normal heights over the GOA. Good things often result from that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Good pattern for some rain in CA.Just found out that a relatives house burned down in the Paradise Fire, they barely made it out. They would be very thankful for any moisture. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 I predict the Beavers lose @ StanfordDucks lose @ UtahCougs win @ Colorado Huskies on bye When's the last time the Ducks or Beavers played in a notable winter weather game in November? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Cool view from North Bend this morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Another chilly morning with a low of 14, but no record this time. Record is 10 in 1985. Included in with last several lows it's definitely a cool stretch. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 We have some excellent evidence the atmosphere is failing to couple with the warm ENSO SSTs. During the recent spike to +1.5 on the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly we had a positive 30 day SOI which has only become more robust the last few days. The 30 day SOI is nearly +5 now and the 90 day is also rising. We also have a full blown Indian Ocean (soon to become Maritime Continent) MJO wave, and the October MEI was lower than September coming in below +0.5. This will be interesting to follow, but the evidence suggests this possible Nino has an uphill battle ahead.Do you think this will continue to drop the SST anomalies?http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 10, 2018 Report Share Posted November 10, 2018 Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season?2004-05, 1940-41 This winter looks like it's gonna go down that path. So Cal is due for a winter like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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