East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 NAM was better than the GFS in the sense that it was right on the souther solution, but it has been all over the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Wow. The NAM gives Bud over a foot and I dont see a flake. That would be quite something. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 If the NAM verifies, I'll be one happy camper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 18z HRRR from Tropical Tidbits. Huge difference than the one I posted from NOAA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 If the NAM verifies, I'll be one happy camper. Honestly me too. I'd be very impressed and in awe of a gradient like that. Especially because I head back to IC tomorrow as classes start tomorrow. I think I told this place I was 30 when I first joined several years ago, but (clearly due to the epic weenie-ness) that wasn't true. I was 14 when I said that. 18 now, not 35. I had a rough first season on here. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 NAM thru 36hrs: Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 3k NAM looking pretty juiced as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Milwaukee goes from not seeing a flake to 7+ this run. Tough forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Omaha and lincoln don't fare too bad on the NAM. 4-6". http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112418/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Lets get another 15-20 miles North Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 The cutoff is insane. I feel like I might be on the right side, because any slight shift would be more likely north than south. NAM moved north, and the HRRR seems a bit north. Not yet ready to throw in the towel in CR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 3k NAM is showing more snow in Cedar Rapids than Iowa City. Definite north shift again. LOL. Good luck forecasting this cutoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 3k nam taking a jump north as well from 12z HRRR also stronger and north from its last run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 LOL - 13.7" for CR on the 3k NAM. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018112418/030/snku_acc.us_c.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 American models really have not done well on this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 How about two more shift north like that and we can call it good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 How about two more shift north like that and we can call it good Agreed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I think it will end up somewhat like that tho. I said on amwx that I think the cutoff between literally nothing and 10”+ is going to be very tight. Like the 3km NAM/RAP/HRRR say. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 further east view http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018112418/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 It does seem like 6z/18z runs go north and 0z/12z goes south for whatever reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Looking at some gradients http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2018112418&fh=39&r=us_mw&dpdt= One county has 13+ in the southern part of it and not even a dusting at the northern part of the county. Would be hard to forecast that lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 All I need is like a 15 mile shift north compared to that run to get right around a foot. Just insane cutoffs. The difference from the NW part of my county to the SE is like 10”. Of course, I’m in the NW part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Blizzard warnings issued for northern MO and far SW Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Still a 40% chance for me? Ehhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Blizzard warning one county South... Sigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Blizzard warning one county South... SighCould be like me. I have a winter storm warning in my county. There’s a chance that could verify and I could get no snow, because that’s how tight the cutoff is in my county. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Blizzard warning one county South... Sigh Blizzard warning one county North...Sigh 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just fantastic...the 1st legit Blizzard of the Season evolving across the heartland...nice way to kick off the holiday season! My local grid suggesting 7-13"...that's a keeper... @St Paul, I'll also be taking screenshots of that radar imagery...that stuff is gonna look redic...1-2"/hr rates for over 6+ hours and some of it will fall during the daytime which is pretty cool. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Updated LOT snowfall forecast.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 MKX went with a Winter Weather Advisory with 1-5 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Blizzard warning one county South... Sigh same here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 updated maps from LOT. Crazy to see this in November 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 18z GFShttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112418/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 18z GFS held serve from the 12z run. Maybe north just a smidge. Good hit for Iowa City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 GFS with 6 inches here in CR. The cutoff is so sharp. Any more slight shifts north would put CR into the heavier bands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Rdps http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018112418/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Fv3 finally loaded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Fv3 finally loaded I’ll take this please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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